Under NESV short term regression will be replaced by huge progression
Morning All
As promised here is my follow up thread to the revenue figures published by Deloitte a couple of weeks ago.
As I said, I wanted to throw things forward 4 years to see where we potentially could be revenue wise once NESV have put their stamp on the organisation.
It is important to remember that transfer income and outlay doesnt come into revenue calculations.
There are so many things to factor into the next 4 years.
To me the main decision to be made is when to start the redevelopment of Anfield as that will seriously affect revenue, negatively short term but positively long term. It does look like it will be a redevelopment so that is what I have targeted.
Firstly it is important to remind ourselves what the revenues were for the season 2009/2010 that were released a fortnight ago.
Current Revenues
Man Utd £286
Arsenal £224
Chelsea £209
Liverpool £184
Man City £125
Spurs £119
They then split down into 3 separate amounts for:
Commercial revenue
Match Day revenue
Broadcasting revenue
They split as follows (Percentages are percentage of overall revenue)
Commercial
Man Utd £ 80.08 28%
Arsenal £ 44.80 20%
Chelsea £ 56.43 27%
Liverpool £ 62.56 34%
Man City £ 46.25 37%
Spurs £ 30.94 26%
Match Day
Man Utd £100.1 35%
Arsenal £94.08 42%
Chelsea £66.88 32%
Liverpool £42.32 23%
Man City £25.00 25%
Spurs £36.89 31%
Broadcasting
Man Utd £105.82 37%
Arsenal £85.12 38%
Chelsea £85.69 41%
Liverpool £79.12 43%
Man City £53.75 43%
Spurs £51.17 43%
For the purpose of the figures it is important to accept that these are projections and obviously are not set in stone for a multitude of reasons, however I think it is interesting to see where we are going as most if not all of these figures can be projected relatively accurately.
Firstly its important to remember in terms of the original figures that these figures for 2009/2010 were figures garnered from a Champions league season and thus reflects that. (Ie broadcast revenues are high)
2010/2011
These figures will be released next February 2012 and it is fair to say that relatively accurate figures can be calculated as we are nearing the end of this season now.
Commercial Revenue
Firstly from a commercial stand point, our initial increase for this annum will come from the Standard Chartered sponsorship deal of £20 million per season.
This replaced the Carlsberg deal which would have been worth £14 million per season.
So here we have a £6 million increase on commercial revenue for this current season.
What I wont be doing here is factoring in any loss of income due to any boycott of buying merchandise as it would be impossible.
Commercial revenues have historically risen 2.7% so if we take that rise and the £6 million off Standard Chartered our figure commercially for 2010/2011 would be an increase of £7.7 million (Standard Chartered plus 2.7% increase), taking us to £70.26 million
Match Day Revenue
Our match day revenue is poor there is no hiding that fact. At the moment the 2009/2010 figure was £42.32 million which also include CL football.
This figure will drop this year as already based on last season we have a 1.61% drop in crowd attendances which equates to a loss of £681,000 based on new ticket prices and the fact we are not in the CL means lower attendances in europe in general at lower prices.
This would bring match day revenue to £41.6 million
Broadcasting Revenue–
This is where we are going to see the first huge drop in our figures for 2010/2011. Due to us not being in the Champions League Deloitte estimate our broadcasting revenue to be about £57 million for this season, a massive drop of £22 million. There is little revenue in the UEFA cup, with Fulham only making several million for their forray to the final.
This drop would make our revenue for year ending 2010/2011 this:
Commercial £70.26 Million
Broadcasting £57 Million
Match Day £41.6 Million
Total Revenue: £168.86 Million
Compared to 2009/2010 that is a drop of £15.14 Million on the previous years revenue of £184 Million
So this is where the financial regression begins unfortunately guys but like I said bare with me, as you will see over time we will be right up there again.
2011/2012
So we now move on to season 2011/2012.
This season will be easy to work out as we wont be in the CL again and will be in the UEFA cup so if we take the general increase of 2.7% as a given the revenue for 2011/2012 will be £173.42 Million
2012/2013
The huge season in my opinion will be season 2012/2013. This is because I believe based on revenues this is the season we will start the redevelopment of Anfield.
Why will redevelopment start in 2012/2013?
The main reason will be revenue and the assumption we will be back in the Champions league during 2012/2013 therefore next seasons league position is vital in us moving forward.
There is no doubt NESV will want the redevelopment to start at the beginnign of a Champions League season for one main reason. Revenue.
When the redevelopment starts my research tells me that the stadium capacity will have to reduce to 30000 approximately and based on Old Traffords redevelopment will take about 12 months.
Therefore with the reduced capacity comes reduced Match day revenue, so the Champions League revenue for this season would offset the loss in match day revenue and give us a bit more revenue in all from the previous season.
Matchday revenue for this season would reduce to approx £29.8 Million (Loss of £13.73 Million), however with Champions League football giving us an extra £31 million (based on incrimental increases) we would be up on the previos season.
So even though the figures for 2012/2013 are still not good we will be making massive progress:
Commercial: £73 Million
Broadcasting £82.32
Match Day Revenue £29.8
Total: £185.12
The progress would be:
Commercial Revenues on the increase
Broadcasting Revenue back where it should be with Champions League football
Match Day Revenue at a low, however we will have a new 60000 capacity for the following season
So on we come to where I think we are going to see us go with NESV!
Season 2013/2014
Commercial Revenue will have risen to approx £75 million which is a reserved number based in NESV going global and the new stadium bringing even more visitors to buy merchandise.
Broadcasting should have risen to £98 Million based on CL football and incrimental rises.
Finally and the one that we needed to change as much as any is Match day revenue which would rise to £85 Million. This figure wont be as high as Arsenal as we will not have as many corporate boxes etc.
2013/2014
Commercial £75 Mill (Stadium stuff increase also global NESV)
Broadcast - £98 Mill
Match Day - £85 Mill (Wont have quite as many boxes as Arse and price hikes)
Total £258 Mill (An increase of £74 Million on 2009/2010!)
So in NESV's 4 year plan our revenue will be outstanding and we will have a fully redeveloped Anfield to be proud of!
I have spent ages putting this together, so I would appreciate everyones thoughts particularly around the timing of redevelopment and CL football in relation to that
YNWA
I feel it in my blood we will get 4th