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Thread: The Premier League Title, Top 4 and Relegation chances 2016-17

  1. #481  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Updated...





    PREMIER LEAGUE RELEGATION

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Sunderland 91
    Middlesbrough 77
    Hull 67
    Swansea 26
    Crystal Palace 21
    Watford 6
    Burnley 5
    Leicester 3.5
    Bournemouth 2.5


    .

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  2. #482  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by grenny158 View Post
    In the space of two weeks, Arsenal's chances of making Top 4 have nearly halved, from 45% to 23.5%. Just shows you how quickly things can change in this league.
    It's because people have started to slowly realise that Arsenal are crap.
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  3. #483  
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    LA LIGA WINNERS

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Real Madrid 70
    Barcelona 29
    Sevilla 0.75
    Atletico Madrid 0.25


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  4. #484  
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    Quote Originally Posted by PHIL. View Post
    On paper, we have by far the best run in. I just hope we can focus and put these teams to the sword.
    It's actually really difficult, considering the type of game we tend to struggle in
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    It's because people have started to slowly realise that Arsenal are crap.
    More that their last 5 Premier league games have been:

    Arsenal 1 Watford 2
    Chelsea 3 Arsenal 1
    Arsenal 2 Hull 0
    Liverpool 3 Arsenal 1
    WBA 3 Arsenal 1

    Played 5 - Won 1 - Lost 4 - Scored 6 - Conceded 11 - Points 3 out of 15.

    That is without their two 5-1 thrashings by Bayern in the same period.

    Their FA Cup form has been absolutely outstanding in that time though - beat Southampton 5-0, the power of Sutton United 2-0 and the mighty Lincoln City 5-0. Arsenal and Arsene - an FA Cup wet dream?
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  6. #486  
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    Quote Originally Posted by grenny158 View Post
    More that their last 5 Premier league games have been:

    Arsenal 1 Watford 2
    Chelsea 3 Arsenal 1
    Arsenal 2 Hull 0
    Liverpool 3 Arsenal 1
    WBA 3 Arsenal 1

    Played 5 - Won 1 - Lost 4 - Scored 6 - Conceded 11 - Points 3 out of 15.
    Yeah, that will have something to do with it too.

    They do love a 3-1 defeat don't they?
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  7. #487  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yeah, that will have something to do with it too.

    They do love a 3-1 defeat don't they?
    They love it, it's their favourite. Damn that Watford side, only scoring 2 - Wenger, his team, and all their fans must be fuming.
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  8. #488  
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    Quote Originally Posted by grenny158 View Post
    They love it, it's their favourite. Damn that Watford side, only scoring 2 - Wenger, his team, and all their fans must be fuming.
    I believe this was the main reason behind the 'Wenger Out' banners.

    I like the way they applied a sort of Euro exchange rate to both their CL games and lost 5-1 instead of 3-1.
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  9. #489  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Updated...






    PREMIER LEAGUE TOP 4

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Chelsea 99.9
    Tottenham 87
    Man.City 83
    Liverpool 67
    Man.Utd 38
    Arsenal 23.5
    Everton 1.5






    .
    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    And the Europa League...




    EUROPA LEAGUE - % CHANCE OF WINNING TROPHY


    Man.Utd
    38
    Lyon
    22
    Celta Vigo
    11.5
    Schalke
    10
    Ajax 6.5
    Besiktas
    6
    Anderlecht
    3.5
    Genk
    2.5



    .


    So, interestingly, Man.Utd are 38% to finish in the top 4 and also 38% to win the EL.

    This means it's not quite so obvious which route to the CL they should prioritise.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post

    So, interestingly, Man.Utd are 38% to finish in the top 4 and also 38% to win the EL.

    This means it's not quite so obvious which route to the CL they should prioritise.
    If I were them I'd prioritise the Europa, less games and poorer quality opposition
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  11. #491  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrummieRed View Post
    If I were them I'd prioritise the Europa, less games and poorer quality opposition
    Yeah but a 38% chance is a 38% chance.

    In other words, the poorer opposition in the EL is built into the fact it's a 38% chance.

    It might be better, from their point of view, not to put all their eggs in one basket yet and see how things develop.
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    Relegation wise, wouldn't rule out Watford...got that plunge into nothingness look
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  13. #493  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yeah but a 38% chance is a 38% chance.

    In other words, the poorer opposition in the EL is built into the fact it's a 38% chance.

    It might be better, from their point of view, not to put all their eggs in one basket yet and see how things develop.
    just imagine banking on the EL and getting beat in the semi finals. we can dream can't we.
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  14. #494  
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf kal View Post
    just imagine banking on the EL and getting beat in the semi finals. we can dream can't we.
    Well that's kind of what happened to us last year, although we went one step further of course.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Well that's kind of what happened to us last year, although we went one step further of course.
    true.. but it would be far sweeter if they failed. besides, couldn't stand the gloating of the media if they won it. already some idiots in the media think they will stroll as high as 3rd in the league totally forgetting the games they have to play.
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf kal View Post
    true.. but it would be far sweeter if they failed. besides, couldn't stand the gloating of the media if they won it. already some idiots in the media think they will stroll as high as 3rd in the league totally forgetting the games they have to play.
    Totally agree Kal. Just can't see them in the top 4. Each time they take points from a team in and around the top 4 it only helps us. I never want them to win as much as a corner but a point against Spurs, Arsenal & Citeh would be pretty good for us. (Don't mind if Everton & the Chavs batter them.) Almost every week for the rest of the season, one of the top 7 are assured of dropping points. Win 5 out of our remaining 9 a couple of draws and I think we'll be fine for top 4.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yeah but a 38% chance is a 38% chance.

    In other words, the poorer opposition in the EL is built into the fact it's a 38% chance.

    It might be better, from their point of view, not to put all their eggs in one basket yet and see how things develop.
    So in raw terms a 38% chance is a 38% chance as you say. But it in one case the 38% chance places the Mancs in the position of having the greatest chance to win the EL over any other team, and thereby get a CL spot (is no other team has a greater chance). It's partly a function of the number of teams left including a few with little realistic chance of winning it all.

    In the PL, the 38% chance is the 5th highest percentage among teams with a realistic shot of getting top 4 (and a CL spot).

    So are the 38%'s the same?. They have to be, except maybe not really.
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf kal View Post
    just imagine banking on the EL and getting beat in the semi finals. we can dream can't we.
    just imagine banking on the EL and getting beat in the final. we can dream can't we.
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  19. #499  
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    Quote Originally Posted by adamk137 View Post
    just imagine banking on the EL and getting beat in the final. we can dream can't we.
    but we were not lauded to win the title last season were we.. the only reason moaniho might prioritise the EL is cause they screwed up the league big time. try a bit of context.
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  20. #500  
    LovelyCushionedHeader is online now Academy prospect
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    Tell you what is confusing me: Is it in our hands to get top 4?

    I mean in theory if United win their two games in hand they are ahead of us, but if they then if they win all their final games they will be taking 3 points off teams above us, so then we could usurp them?

    Doesn't matter really because it could all quite literally change completely next gameweek.
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  21. #501  
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY Mike View Post
    So in raw terms a 38% chance is a 38% chance as you say. But it in one case the 38% chance places the Mancs in the position of having the greatest chance to win the EL over any other team, and thereby get a CL spot (is no other team has a greater chance). It's partly a function of the number of teams left including a few with little realistic chance of winning it all.

    In the PL, the 38% chance is the 5th highest percentage among teams with a realistic shot of getting top 4 (and a CL spot).

    So are the 38%'s the same?. They have to be, except maybe not really.
    Yes, but don't forget there are 4 teams that get the prize of a top 4 finish, but only 1 becomes EL winners.

    The bottom line is that if they were in this PL situation 100 times, they would qualify for the top 4 on 38 occasions. And likewise, if they were in the EL situation 100 times, they would win it 38 times.

    So you can't escape the fact that they are as likely as each other.
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  22. #502  
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    Quote Originally Posted by LovelyCushionedHeader View Post
    Tell you what is confusing me: Is it in our hands to get top 4?

    I mean in theory if United win their two games in hand they are ahead of us, but if they then if they win all their final games they will be taking 3 points off teams above us, so then we could usurp them?

    Doesn't matter really because it could all quite literally change completely next gameweek.
    Yes but if Utd win all their games and therefore beat City and Spurs - those 2 sides would still be able to finish above us by winning their remaining games.

    So it's definitely not in our own hands.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yes, but don't forget there are 4 teams that get the prize of a top 4 finish, but only 1 becomes EL winners.

    The bottom line is that if they were in this PL situation 100 times, they would qualify for the top 4 on 38 occasions. And likewise, if they were in the EL situation 100 times, they would win it 38 times.

    So you can't escape the fact that they are as likely as each other.
    Indeed. 38% = 38%.

    But....
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  24. #504  
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY Mike View Post
    Indeed. 38% = 38%.

    But....
    But... nothing
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    A lot of the discussion in this thread treats Darren's numbers as though they were evidence of how likely the relevant outcomes are. Are they based on anything that would justify that assumption? Where do the numbers come from?
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  26. #506  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Simply Roy View Post
    A lot of the discussion in this thread treats Darren's numbers as though they were evidence of how likely the relevant outcomes are. Are they based on anything that would justify that assumption? Where do the numbers come from?
    I pluck them out of my arse.

    No, the percentages I use are based on current betting prices.

    And while some people think betting prices are irrelevant, they're actually a lot more accurate than you might think.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    I pluck them out of my arse.

    No, the percentages I use are based on current betting prices.

    And while some people think betting prices are irrelevant, they're actually a lot more accurate than you might think.
    Betting prices are based on calculated probabilities of different outcomes, no? Perhaps different betting shops might nudge the pricing a bit based on other factors, but I assume the overriding influence is derived from maths? AMIRITE?
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  28. #508  
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY Mike View Post
    Betting prices are based on calculated probabilities of different outcomes, no? Perhaps different betting shops might nudge the pricing a bit based on other factors, but I assume the overriding influence is derived from maths? AMIRITE?
    Yes, well it's a combination of maths and opinion. As well as instinct and experience.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    It's because people have started to slowly realise that Arsenal are crap.
    ha! Said this around 4/5 years ago. Was laughed at on here. They have been crap since 2005 and people are like..god they play such great football...wow...Ozil omg hes fantastic...oh god their passing is fantastic. And so its gone on year after year. Year after year finishing 4th and exiting the CL at Rd of 16. How would you feel if you were an Arsenal fan?

    Wenger doesnt do confrontation and i think when Viera left he said he wouldnt have a player like that again. And he didnt. And so he hasnt won the PL since or come close. If Arsenal dont invest in leaders and decent defensive MFs theyre doomed. The worst thing is, we're going the same way. Need some physical players. Chesera have them in Matic Kante and Costa. We dont have anyone like that so we get bullied by the likes of Hull and Burnley as Arsenal do. You have to have the beast as the beauty on its own is no good.
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  30. #510  
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    I wouldn't say that they've been crap... until now.

    I mean they came 2nd last year.

    And ok, they normally come around 3rd or 4th... but someone has to be the 3rd or 4th best team - and it so happens to normally be them. No real shame in that, given the huge sums of money that Chelsea, Utd and City normally spend.

    They are what they are.
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