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Thread: The Premier League Title, Top 4 and Relegation chances 2016-17

  1. #61  
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    But they do get things wrong constantly and aren't a compass of good sense either

    Its to get you betting init, 'bettin' with good ole Ray ****** Winstone,'
    When teams like us get beat by Burnley, we weren't necessarily priced wrong. It's just that odds don't always equate to actual results.

    The reason you' won't get Liverpool at odds of 6 to beat Burnley at home is because we're more likely to win than lose.
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  2. #62  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Q8reds View Post

    It may not be due to actual probability, but weight of money thrown on a certain bet can influence the odds.. Self preservation from the bookies ... Again ask Darrren1
    A combination of things, yep.

    It's why you'll see the odds on a horse shorten quickly when big money is placed on it before a race.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PHIL. View Post
    Bookies don't just randomly pluck their figures from thin air you know mate?
    Bookies either predict a new total score based on average performance or by extrapolating a team's percentage change from prior expected to arrive at the final or a combination of such variances.

    However, I do believe that such extrapolation is not wise at such an early stage of a season. If continue to beat what's expected of us with such great variations (eg converting an expected loss to a win) after 10 games, then it makes more sense.

    Generally a decent prediction can only come after half the season is over and we have played every team at least once.

    This is a very small subset and any extrapolation is not scientific and is quite perverse in my opinion
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    Quote Originally Posted by 8errard View Post
    Bookies either predict a new total score based on average performance or by extrapolating a team's percentage change from prior expected to arrive at the final or a combination of such variances.

    However, I do believe that such extrapolation is not wise at such an early stage of a season. If continue to beat what's expected of us with such great variations (eg converting an expected loss to a win) after 10 games, then it makes more sense.

    Generally a decent prediction can only come after half the season is over and we have played every team at least once.

    This is a very small subset and any extrapolation is not scientific and is quite perverse in my opinion
    The prices will change dramatically at this stage of these, yep.
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    Quote Originally Posted by AngriestRed View Post
    Is Darren a bookie?
    He knows a thing or two or many about bookies ...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andyfagan View Post
    Darrren where is your predicted points over the next 5/10 games thread? I miss those.
    The trouble with doing those is that in order to have any context, you also have to do the next 10 games of all the other big teams and it's quite a bit of work.

    I might do it after Christmas, if we're in a title race.
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  7. #67  
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    Quote Originally Posted by AngriestRed View Post
    No they don't but it does seem a tad early... If I were a bookie I would wait till at least Christmas before i changed odds up
    And this is why you're not a bookie.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albert-Hall View Post
    Really, what is the point of this speculation this early in the season? For all the fantastic football we played Friday one flash of good fortune for Chelsea and we could have finished with just one point. At the moment the team across the park are lying second and are now steered by a top rate manager and have more money to spend. Don't dismiss Leicester out of hand yet, Watford are coming on strong and if you think Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester United are going to curl up and die you live in cookoo land.
    You don't really grasp the concept of probability do you?
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  9. #69  
    GrottonRed is online now LFC Forums Moderator
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    I enjoy your threads mate.

    Stats...a bit of maths...and tables to boot.

    What's not to like?
    Life President of TEPS...The Ellipsis Preservation Society.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PHIL. View Post
    When teams like us get beat by Burnley, we weren't necessarily priced wrong. It's just that odds don't always equate to actual results.

    The reason you' won't get Liverpool at odds of 6 to beat Burnley at home is because we're more likely to win than lose.
    Burnley would have been about 13% to beat Liverpool. The fact they beat us doesn't mean the odds were wrong - it just means that teams like Burnley will beat Liverpool around 13% of the time. And they do.

    They're called shock results, but actually the real shock would be if those results never happened. After all, they're a 13% chance, not a zero % chance.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    I enjoy your threads mate.

    Stats...a bit of maths...and tables to boot.

    What's not to like?
    Cheers
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    And this is why you're not a bookie.
    Bookies are smart ..
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    Quote Originally Posted by 8errard View Post
    Bookies either predict a new total score based on average performance or by extrapolating a team's percentage change from prior expected to arrive at the final or a combination of such variances.

    However, I do believe that such extrapolation is not wise at such an early stage of a season. If continue to beat what's expected of us with such great variations (eg converting an expected loss to a win) after 10 games, then it makes more sense.

    Generally a decent prediction can only come after half the season is over and we have played every team at least once.

    This is a very small subset and any extrapolation is not scientific and is quite perverse in my opinion
    Basically, teams get re-rated all the time. Each remaining fixture is priced up and then the computer will run about 10,000 simulations to see how likely each team are to win the title.
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    Quote Originally Posted by redhoops View Post
    Bookies are smart ..
    This is true.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    What's not to like?
    I post in them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    You don't really grasp the concept of probability do you?
    It's not that. I don't know how many seasons you have lived through, but when you have lived through as many as I have you will know that "certainties" in September have usually faded into oblivion by April and vice-versa. Next week we meet Hull at home. A certainty right? We will see. Then we meet Swansea at their ground. Another certainty? Probably, but you can never tell. Then Manchester United at Anfield. If we win all of those three matches, then I will start to really believe. But I have seen too many certainties crash to be carried away. Remember Burnley?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albert-Hall View Post
    It's not that. I don't know how many seasons you have lived through, but when you have lived through as many as I have you will know that "certainties" in September have usually faded into oblivion by April and vice-versa. Next week we meet Hull at home. A certainty right? We will see. Then we meet Swansea at their ground. Another certainty? Probably, but you can never tell. Then Manchester United at Anfield. If we win all of those three matches, then I will start to really believe. But I have seen too many certainties crash to be carried away. Remember Burnley?
    What on earth are you blabbering on about?

    Who said Hull was a certainty? Or Swansea?

    We're all aware that favourites lose football matches quite often. So what?

    This is a look at how likely each team is to win the league - as things stand now.

    After next weekend's results, it will change again. And then again the following week.

    Probability isn't about predicting what will happen - or saying we're certainties to beat a team or win the league, or come 2nd... it's about assessing how likely these events are.

    But like I said, you don't seem to understand that concept.
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    Quote Originally Posted by redhoops View Post
    Bookies are smart ..
    Bookies aren't all smart... I knew a pretty stupid one when I lived in Vegas... Don't fool yourself
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    Man City on top seems legit.

    They're going to need to update those Man United odds though.
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    Quote Originally Posted by AngriestRed View Post
    Bookies aren't all smart... I knew a pretty stupid one when I lived in Vegas... Don't fool yourself
    Tells you more about Vegas that...
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    Great thread darrren

    Why are some confused what the lastest odds say is that Liverpool has a 14% chance to win the league it's a 14% probability and if you compare to others excluding city it's a toss up no clear favorite between us Man U arsenal Chelsea


    So I think they are quite accurate given who we played so far
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    Quote Originally Posted by Q80 View Post
    Great thread darrren

    Why are some confused what the lastest odds say is that Liverpool has a 14% chance to win the league it's a 14% probability and if you compare to others excluding city it's a toss up no clear favorite between us Man U arsenal Chelsea


    So I think they are quite accurate given who we played so far
    Some people are always confused.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Q80 View Post
    Great thread darrren

    Why are some confused what the lastest odds say is that Liverpool has a 14% chance to win the league it's a 14% probability and if you compare to others excluding city it's a toss up no clear favorite between us Man U arsenal Chelsea


    So I think they are quite accurate given who we played so far
    Welcome back

    Good thing school is back
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    Quote Originally Posted by Q8reds View Post
    Welcome back

    Good thing school is back
    Thanks ��
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  25. #85  
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    Updated...




    PREMIER LEAGUE TITLE

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Man.City 56
    Liverpool 15
    Man.Utd 9
    Arsenal 8.5
    Chelsea 5
    Tottenham 5
    Everton 1



    Liverpool are up to 15% now. Getting there slowly...

    .
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  26. #86  
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    LIVERPOOL'S TROPHY CHANCES

    TROPHY
    CHANCE (%)
    Premier League 15
    FA Cup
    11
    EFL Cup 14.5
    The Treble 0.24



    So our chance of winning all 3 trophies is now down to just over 400-1

    .
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    City at 56?
    I'd take ten off that and add 5 each to United and Arsenal personally .
    Or thereabouts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by redhoops View Post
    City at 56?
    I'd take ten off that and add 5 each to United and Arsenal personally .
    Or thereabouts.
    You can back Utd at 10/1 and Arsenal at 12/1.

    Not bad value if you think they should both be 6/1.
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  29. #89  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    You can back Utd at 10/1 and Arsenal at 12/1.

    Not bad value if you think they should both be 6/1.
    We still 2nd favourites ?
    Shouldn't be imo
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  30. #90  
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    Quote Originally Posted by redhoops View Post
    We still 2nd favourites ?
    Shouldn't be imo
    Yes - the table shows that we're clear 2nd favourites.

    Why so pessimistic?

    Along with City we're playing the best football by a mile. And we've had the hardest fixtures.
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