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Thread: The Premier League Title, Top 4 and Relegation chances 2016-17

  1. #1 Default The Premier League Title, Top 4 and Relegation chances 2016-17  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    These are the current chances for the title, top 4 and relegation this season, based on current odds...





    PREMIER LEAGUE TITLE

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Man.City 26.5
    Man.Utd 22.5
    Chelsea 14
    Arsenal 13
    Liverpool 10
    Tottenham 9.5
    Leicester 3
    West Ham 1






    PREMIER LEAGUE TOP 4

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Man.City 78
    Man.Utd 69
    Chelsea 62
    Arsenal 59
    Tottenham 43
    Liverpool 40
    Leicester 14
    West Ham 10
    Everton 8
    Southampton 7






    PREMIER LEAGUE RELEGATION

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Hull 59
    Burnley 47
    Middlesbrough 29
    Watford 28
    West Brom 27
    Sunderland 26
    Swansea 22
    Bournemouth 21
    Crystal Palace 14
    Stoke 10
    Leicester 6
    Southampton 5
    Everton 3
    West Ham 3


    .

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  2. #2  
    Ganymede is online now Prefers one thread per page
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    Maybe you should wait until after the window has closed...
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  3. #3  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganymede View Post
    Maybe you should wait until after the window has closed...
    Why?
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  4. #4  
    BearWithMe is online now First team regular
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    So we have more chance of winning the league than Leicester did last year and more chance of finishing top 4 than Portugal had of winning the Euro's.
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  5. #5  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by BearWithMe View Post
    So we have more chance of winning the league than Leicester did last year and more chance of finishing top 4 than Portugal had of winning the Euro's.
    Well everyone has more chance of winning the league than Leicester had last year.
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  6. #6  
    lonewolf kal is online now Boot Room insider
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    thought hull would have been higher. wonder if they will be on a par with derby and villa performance wise then.
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  7. #7  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    LA LIGA WINNERS

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Barcelona 53
    Real Madrid 37
    Atletico Madrid 7
    Sevilla 1
    Villarreal 1
    Valencia 0.5


    .

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  8. #8  
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    Think the pl will be between the two Manc clubs. I don't think it matters who Arsenal sign between now and the end of the window. They won't win it, because of Wenger.
    YNWA
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  9. #9  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    LIVERPOOL'S TROPHY CHANCES

    TROPHY
    CHANCE (%)
    Premier League 10
    FA Cup
    10
    EFL Cup 10
    The Treble 0.1



    So our chance of winning all 3 trophies is about 999-1

    .
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  10. #10  
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    So we are more likely to get top 4 than Spurs but they are more likely to win the title?
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  11. #11  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by hj77 View Post
    So we are more likely to get top 4 than Spurs but they are more likely to win the title?
    No, the other way around.
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  12. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by hj77 View Post
    So we are more likely to get top 4 than Spurs but they are more likely to win the title?
    Pretty sure the post says the opposite.
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  13. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    No, the other way around.
    How does that work?
    I'm the normal one.
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  14. #14  
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    Darren great job, don't let these jokers get you down
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    No, the other way around.
    Quote Originally Posted by SoulPower7 View Post
    Pretty sure the post says the opposite.
    Yes, I got it the wrong way round, but it's still a strange one. Logically you'd think the team more likely to win the title would also be more likely to get top 4. No?
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  16. #16  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by hj77 View Post
    Yes, I got it the wrong way round, but it's still a strange one. Logically you'd think the team more likely to win the title would also be more likely to get top 4. No?
    Generally speaking, yes.

    But it's not completely illogical.

    For example, you could argue that while Liverpool have more chance of winning the title than Spurs, we also have more chance of coming 8th than they do. Our range is wider than theirs, whereas they're more likely to come around 4th place, with less variation.

    I think, basically, we have more potential than they do, so if it all clicks it could really click. But if it doesn't, then Spurs are more likely to grab a top 4 spot than us - like last year.
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  17. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Why?
    Because you can judge teams' strength better when their squads are final.
    City seem to have the poorest squad out of the top 6.
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  18. #18  
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    Whilst I apprecIt your table and stats, I can't agree as many will also calculate that as we have no European distraction that alone will increase our chances significant enough for the top four.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shumba17 View Post
    Because you can judge teams' strength better when their squads are final.
    City seem to have the poorest squad out of the top 6.
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  20. #20  
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    Quote Originally Posted by OLI1879 View Post
    Maybe 5?
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  21. #21  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shumba17 View Post
    Because you can judge teams' strength better when their squads are final.
    City seem to have the poorest squad out of the top 6.
    Yes, but these are just the current chances.

    They'll move a lot more before the end of the window as a result of the matches being played by then.


    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon Ottershaw View Post
    Whilst I apprecIt your table and stats, I can't agree as many will also calculate that as we have no European distraction that alone will increase our chances significant enough for the top four.
    As ever, if you disagree with odds you're able to bet on them and make money off your opinions.
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  22. #22  
    Ganymede is online now Prefers one thread per page
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Why?


    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yes, but these are just the current chances.

    They'll move a lot more before the end of the window as a result of the matches being played by then.
    ^^^
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  23. #23  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganymede View Post
    ^^^
    Are you suggesting that because the upcoming matches will move the odds, it's therefore too early to post them?

    Shall I just wait until the final day of the season and put 100 next to the winner's name with 0 next to everyone else?
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  24. #24  
    Ganymede is online now Prefers one thread per page
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Are you suggesting that because the upcoming matches will move the odds, it's therefore too early to post them?
    Yes.
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  25. #25  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganymede View Post
    Yes.
    I don't think you understand odds - you're confusing them with results.

    Ok, so it's too early to say we have a 10% chance of winning the league, as that will go up or down depending on whether we win or lose to Arsenal. So let's wait until after that.

    Oh, except then it will change again when we've played Burnley. And Spurs.

    So I'll just wait until the end of the season and say we either have a 0% or 100% chance shall I?

    Or you could just learn that 'current chances' mean just that, and will move regularly between now and May.
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  26. #26  
    robbieflowerpot is offline Academy prospect
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganymede View Post
    Yes.
    Might as well wait until the end of the season then. Penultimate game.
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  27. #27  
    KeepTheFightForJustice is online now Academy prospect
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    1. Man City
    2. Man Utd
    3. Tottenham
    4. Liverpool

    18. Sunderland
    19. Burnley
    20. Hull City
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  28. #28  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Updated...




    PREMIER LEAGUE TITLE

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Man.City 45
    Man.Utd 17
    Chelsea 16
    Arsenal 7.5
    Liverpool 7.5
    Tottenham 5
    Leicester 1







    .

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  29. #29  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Updated...




    PREMIER LEAGUE TITLE

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Man.City 47
    Man.Utd 16
    Chelsea 15
    Liverpool 8
    Arsenal 7
    Tottenham 5.5
    Leicester 0.75



    Liverpool are now up to 4th favourites for the title. If we win on Friday night, we could go 3rd in the betting.

    .
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  30. #30  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Updated...





    PREMIER LEAGUE TOP 4

    TEAM
    CHANCE (%)
    Man.City 90
    Man.Utd 77
    Chelsea 67
    Liverpool 54
    Arsenal 52
    Tottenham 40
    Leicester 6
    Everton 6
    West Ham 3
    Southampton 2




    So Liverpool are now more likely to finish top 4 than not. Slightly.


    .
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