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Thread: Title Race - Expected Points

  1. #31  
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    I think what might throw these figures out slightly for some teams, will be when the European games kick back in.

    You cant really ignore the fact that Utd, for example have been almost exclusively reliant on Ibra's goals, which all but dried up during their Europa group stages campaign, and reemerged after. They have possibly eight games in Feb alone, ending with the Mancs derby AFTER visiting Eitienne. That's tough.
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  2. #32  
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    Good god Darren1 I was only thinking of this the other day and did it, not as scientifically as you, but just as an average. So we have 7 away games left and I thought we'd take between 13 and 16 points out of a possible 21 from those. We have 10 home games and i thought we'd take between 20 and 24pts from those. So we'd end up with between 78pts and 85pts. I reckon anything over 80 should mean a minimum of 3rd whereas over 83 could mean champions or 2nd.

    If i was a betting man id put money on us finishing 2nd.
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  3. #33  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDouble86 View Post
    I think what might throw these figures out slightly for some teams, will be when the European games kick back in.

    You cant really ignore the fact that Utd, for example have been almost exclusively reliant on Ibra's goals, which all but dried up during their Europa group stages campaign, and reemerged after. They have possibly eight games in Feb alone, ending with the Mancs derby AFTER visiting Eitienne. That's tough.
    Yes the euro games will seriously damage some but particularly Utd and Spurs.
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  4. #34  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDouble86 View Post
    I think what might throw these figures out slightly for some teams, will be when the European games kick back in.

    You cant really ignore the fact that Utd, for example have been almost exclusively reliant on Ibra's goals, which all but dried up during their Europa group stages campaign, and reemerged after. They have possibly eight games in Feb alone, ending with the Mancs derby AFTER visiting Eitienne. That's tough.
    That's actually a very good point.

    If we come through January relatively unscathed, and with as many points in the league as possible, we should not experience any real fixture congestion for the rest of the season. The further the likes of Man Utd and the rest go in Europe, the greater the chance of them having a European hangover for the weekend games that follow, and, as such, they are more likely to drop points, especially in games they should be expected to win. Let's also hope the Euro draw is unkind for our rivals as possible i.e. as much travelling time as possible.

    Obviously, Chelsea being out of Europe benefits them as much as it does us.
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    Not sure if Europe will affect united with the league. They play their first leg on Thursday then there is no league game that weekend as its Fa cup. Then they have second leg on Wednesday, and league game on Sunday. Not sure how they pulled off europa 2nd leg tie on Wednesday when most are playing Thursday. So one league game after 2 legs of europa.
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  6. #36  
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    Good tables OP, and I think the final tallies will work out similarly to what's shown in them. At the start of the season, I was targeting 81 pts for LFC, which I thought would be enough for the Title, but I didn't expect Chelsea to get so crazy this season, or for the rest of the top-5 to be so good - Mau U is'nt in the title race for me, and have'nt been for a couple months.

    I see you have us rounded at 80 pts, but for my own personal target( ), I actually have us 2 pts. better so far, so hopefully we'll get to 83 pts if we hold pat for the remainder of games - incidentally, having a pre-conceived measurement system like this is what keeps me from going bats..t crazy like most other people on here when we draw with Sunderland or lose to Bournemouth etc - sure those results are disappointing, but the bigger picture keeps the odd bad result in perspective. Makes me accept those kind of results a lot calmer now than in previous seasons.
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  7. #37  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Techno-red View Post
    Not sure if Europe will affect united with the league. They play their first leg on Thursday then there is no league game that weekend as its Fa cup. Then they have second leg on Wednesday, and league game on Sunday. Not sure how they pulled off europa 2nd leg tie on Wednesday when most are playing Thursday. So one league game after 2 legs of europa.
    Eh? They have a Europa Lge game on a Weds? Must be that there are no CL games that night.

    I still think Spurs/Utd will be seriously damaged by EL. It will do for Spurs and theres no way Zlatan can play on Thurs and Sunday.
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  8. #38  
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    Quote Originally Posted by spikop View Post
    Good tables OP, and I think the final tallies will work out similarly to what's shown in them. At the start of the season, I was targeting 81 pts for LFC, which I thought would be enough for the Title, but I didn't expect Chelsea to get so crazy this season, or for the rest of the top-5 to be so good - Mau U is'nt in the title race for me, and have'nt been for a couple months.

    I see you have us rounded at 80 pts, but for my own personal target( ), I actually have us 2 pts. better so far, so hopefully we'll get to 83 pts if we hold pat for the remainder of games - incidentally, having a pre-conceived measurement system like this is what keeps me from going bats..t crazy like most other people on here when we draw with Sunderland or lose to Bournemouth etc - sure those results are disappointing, but the bigger picture keeps the odd bad result in perspective. Makes me accept those kind of results a lot calmer now than in previous seasons.


    yes absolutely. Take Sunday for example. Many were disappointed we didnt win but we gained a point at a ground we have lost at for last 2 seasons. The only absolute reverse this season for the worse was our defeat at Bournemouth where we won last season. For Man Utd for eample we have gained 2pts over the 2 games cf last season. We are now 10pts up on last season in total.
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  9. #39  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yes, absolutely.

    It will change not just with form, but more importantly with results.

    A team that's 'in for' 2 points and then wins, will automatically move up a point in their total expected points - before you even consider whether their form means re-rating the rest of the matches.




    I fully intended to, but ran out of time.

    I'll add them at some point, when I get a chance.
    Interestingly you have Man City missing out on top 4. Mm..wonder how that will play with City owners.
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  10. #40  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    Interestingly you have Man City missing out on top 4. Mm..wonder how that will play with City owners.
    and do you think city can get top four ghyll? at the expense of whom. the same goes for united, sure they have picked up, specially against the minnows, but the teams ahead of them are also playing well. next season though - wow - thats going to be a tough one if they all carry on from here.
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  11. #41  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Techno-red View Post
    Not sure if Europe will affect united with the league. They play their first leg on Thursday then there is no league game that weekend as its Fa cup. Then they have second leg on Wednesday, and league game on Sunday. Not sure how they pulled off europa 2nd leg tie on Wednesday when most are playing Thursday. So one league game after 2 legs of europa.
    Possibly, but I'm saying it could be a long term factor.

    After 6 games in 21 days, they may have to go to France and win, before going to Citeh in another must win game. Also wouldn't they need a little luck with the FA Cup draw (assuming they beat Wigan), and avoiding a big team?

    Losts to play for in this race, but for me, Mancs are certainly out of it.
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  12. #42  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    Eh? They have a Europa Lge game on a Weds? Must be that there are no CL games that night.

    I still think Spurs/Utd will be seriously damaged by EL. It will do for Spurs and theres no way Zlatan can play on Thurs and Sunday.
    Yeah. 3 europa league second leg fixtures taking place on a Wednesday whilst the rest on Thursday. United are one of the lucky 3 games on Wednesday night. Gives them more rest time before they face City that weekend.
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  13. #43  
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    wrong thread
    Last edited by NY Mike; 18-1-17 at 17:42.
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  14. #44  
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    The explanation...



    Manchester United will play St Etienne in the last 32 of the Europa League - on a WEDNESDAY night.

    The move is down to local rivals Lyon also being drawn at home in the second leg, due to both sides being seeded.

    As Lyon finished higher in Ligue 1 last term, they have priority, and will retain their Thursday fixture.

    Their Manchester Derby trip to the Etihad Stadium against rivals City could still be moved back a day to February 26 - or it could be moved to a different week, should United reach the EFL Cup final at Wembley on the same day.

    Jose Mourinho's men will host the French Ligue 1 side in the first leg at Old Trafford on Thursday February 16.

    The decisive second leg will take place at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard on Wednesday February 22.
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  15. #45  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDouble86 View Post
    They have possibly eight games in Feb alone, ending with the Mancs derby AFTER visiting Eitienne. That's tough.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDouble86 View Post
    After 6 games in 21 days, they may have to go to France and win, before going to Citeh in another must win game.

    Quote Originally Posted by Techno-red View Post
    United are one of the lucky 3 games on Wednesday night. Gives them more rest time before they face City that weekend.


    Unless you think Hull are going to overturn the 2 goal deficit in the 2nd leg, then Utd won't be playing City after the St Ettiene game. They'll be in the EFL Cup final that weekend - hopefully playing us.
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  16. #46  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    MAN.UTD


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    22
    Stoke (a)
    1.96
    23
    Hull (h)
    2.55
    24
    Leicester (a)
    1.97
    25
    Watford (h) 2.41
    26
    Man.City (a) 1.15
    27
    Bournemouth (h) 2.30
    28
    Southampton (a)
    1.65
    29
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.08
    30
    West Brom (h)
    2.27
    31
    Everton (h) 2.08
    32
    Sunderland (a) 2.15
    33
    Chelsea (h) 1.44
    34
    Burnley (a)
    1.96
    35
    Swansea (h)
    2.51
    36
    Arsenal (a) 1.08
    37
    Tottenham (a)
    1.07
    38
    C.Palace (h)
    2.46

    TOTAL: ........... 33.09 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 40 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 73.09 ............



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  17. #47  
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    SUMMARY

    TEAM
    EXPECTED PTS
    Chelsea
    87.02
    Liverpool
    80.07
    Tottenham
    78.83
    Arsenal
    77.26
    Man.City
    75.31
    Man.Utd
    73.09



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  18. #48  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    .
    SUMMARY

    TEAM
    EXPECTED PTS
    Chelsea
    87.02
    Liverpool
    80.07
    Tottenham
    78.83
    Arsenal
    77.26
    Man.City
    75.31
    Man.Utd
    73.09



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    That would be hilarious to have both Manchester teams miss out.
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  19. #49  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BostonFans View Post
    That would be hilarious to have both Manchester teams miss out.
    It would.

    And it's the most likely scenario too.
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  20. #50  
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf kal View Post
    and do you think city can get top four ghyll? at the expense of whom. the same goes for united, sure they have picked up, specially against the minnows, but the teams ahead of them are also playing well. next season though - wow - thats going to be a tough one if they all carry on from here.
    of the top 5/6 at the mo they are looking the most vulnerable arent they. If Pep doesnt fix the defence then yes i think they'll slip out of the top 4. This weekend for example if they lose to Spurs (a distinct possibility even though theyre at home) and Utd dont win at Stoke the top 4 could start to edge away.
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  21. #51  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    of the top 5/6 at the mo they are looking the most vulnerable arent they. If Pep doesnt fix the defence then yes i think they'll slip out of the top 4. This weekend for example if they lose to Spurs (a distinct possibility even though theyre at home) and Utd dont win at Stoke the top 4 could start to edge away.
    yup,.been of a mind that the current top four in whatever order is likely what we will see come may. the hiccups of both manchester teams i think is too late for them to change that without one of the others going into a meltdown and currently i just can't see that, even with arsenals usual wobble.

    i think next season though is going to be very tough and difficult to call - i do worry about city though as the job could well turn out bigger than first imagined.
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  22. #52  
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    Time to update, with a few tweaks here and there...





    LIVERPOOL


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    26
    Leicester (a)
    2.01
    27
    Arsenal (h)
    1.68
    28
    Burnley (h)
    2.52
    29
    Man.City (a)
    1.05
    30
    Everton (h)
    2.05
    31
    Bournemouth (h)
    2.33
    32
    Stoke (a)
    1.98
    33
    West Brom (a)
    1.91
    34
    C.Palace (h)
    2.49
    35
    Watford (a)
    2.09
    36
    Southampton (h)
    2.22
    37
    West Ham (a)
    2.04
    38
    Middlesbrough (h)
    2.48

    TOTAL: ........... 26.85 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 49 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 75.85 ............








    CHELSEA


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    26
    Swansea (h)
    2.51
    27
    West Ham (a) 2.04
    28
    Watford (h)
    2.47
    29
    Stoke (a) 2.00
    30
    C.Palace (h) 2.54
    31
    Man.City (h) 1.68
    32
    Bournemouth (a) 2.05
    33
    Man.Utd (a) 1.24
    34
    Southampton (h) 2.29
    35
    Everton (a) 1.65
    36
    Middlesbrough (h) 2.53
    37
    West Brom (a) 1.97
    38
    Sunderland (h)
    2.38

    TOTAL: ........... 27.35 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 60 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 87.35 ............








    .
    TOTTENHAM


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    26
    Stoke (h) 2.32
    27
    Everton (h)
    2.05
    28
    C.Palace (a) 2.08
    29
    Southampton (h) 2.21
    30
    Burnley (a)
    1.90
    31
    Swansea (a)
    1.95
    32
    Watford (h) 2.37
    33
    Bournemouth (h)
    2.35
    34
    Leicester (a)
    1.99
    35
    Arsenal (h)
    1.52
    36
    West Ham (a) 1.95
    37
    Man.Utd (h)
    1.56
    38
    Hull (a)
    2.12

    TOTAL: ........... 26.37 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 50 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 76.37 ............








    .
    ARSENAL


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    26
    Southampton (a)
    1.76
    27
    Liverpool (a) 1.05
    28
    Leicester (h)
    2.48
    29
    West Brom (a)
    1.89
    30
    Man.City (h) 1.57
    31
    West Ham (h) 2.38
    32
    C.Palace (a) 2.15
    33
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.11
    34
    Sunderland (h) 2.55
    35
    Tottenham (a) 1.19
    36
    Man.Utd (h)
    1.61
    37
    Stoke (a) 2.04
    38
    Everton (h) 2.14

    TOTAL: ........... 24.92 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 50 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 74.92 ............







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  23. #53  
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    .
    MAN.CITY


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    25
    Bournemouth (a)
    2.11
    26
    Man.Utd (h) 1.57
    27
    Sunderland (a)
    2.28
    28
    Stoke (h) 2.39
    29
    Liverpool (h)
    1.68
    30
    Arsenal (a) 1.15
    31
    Chelsea (a) 1.05
    32
    Hull (h) 2.49
    33
    Southampton (a) 1.85
    34
    West Brom (h) 2.27
    35
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.12
    36
    C.Palace (h)
    2.55
    37
    Leicester (h) 2.49
    38
    Watford (a) 2.21

    TOTAL: ........... 28.21 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 49 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 77.21 ............



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  24. #54  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    MAN.UTD


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    26
    Man.City (a) 1.15
    27
    Bournemouth (h) 2.48
    28
    Southampton (a)
    1.78
    29
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.10
    30
    West Brom (h)
    2.31
    31
    Everton (h) 2.06
    32
    Sunderland (a) 2.22
    33
    Chelsea (h) 1.48
    34
    Burnley (a)
    1.85
    35
    Swansea (h)
    2.42
    36
    Arsenal (a) 1.11
    37
    Tottenham (a)
    1.16
    38
    C.Palace (h)
    2.52

    TOTAL: ........... 24.64 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 48 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 72.64 ............



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  25. #55  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    SUMMARY

    TEAM
    EXPECTED PTS
    Chelsea
    87.35
    Man.City 77.21
    Tottenham
    76.37
    Liverpool 75.85
    Arsenal 74.92
    Man.Utd
    72.64



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    I'd be quite happy with that.
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  27. #57  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    .
    SUMMARY

    TEAM
    EXPECTED PTS
    Chelsea
    87.35
    Man.City 77.21
    Tottenham
    76.37
    Liverpool 75.85
    Arsenal 74.92
    Man.Utd
    72.64



    .
    Hi Darrren .. I am assuming you get these figures from your bookie business? If so, please can you tell whether these figures are worked out taking all factors into account, or is it based on current league position and form only? Thing I am most interested in knowing is whether it takes into account things like fixture congestion, particularly for teams still in Europe .. and especially whether 'midweek European game affect on following weekend league games' is factored in or not?
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  28. #58  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by grenny158 View Post
    Hi Darrren .. I am assuming you get these figures from your bookie business? If so, please can you tell whether these figures are worked out taking all factors into account, or is it based on current league position and form only? Thing I am most interested in knowing is whether it takes into account things like fixture congestion, particularly for teams still in Europe .. and especially whether 'midweek European game affect on following weekend league games' is factored in or not?
    Yes I've tried to price up the matches with these things in mind. Also things like mid-table teams fading off towards the end of the season as they have nothing to play for while teams at the bottom step up their game as they're fighting for their lives.

    I think Utd and Spurs will use their squad for the upcoming Europa matches, so might not be too badly affected. It may harm them more in later rounds, but of course they may not make it that far.

    So it's a bit of a guessing game and not an exact science, but I think these are roughly the right prices for each game, give or take the odd 0.1 either way, here and there.
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    I don't envy your task, Darren. It's a minefield of calculations (Is anyone else finding it absolutely hilarious that Utd's unbeaten run has seen them rooted in 6th place?)

    April is a huge month for everyone, as there are SIX Premiership games to play.

    Utd/Spurs may have 9 including both Cup games (Utd could even have 10 if the rearranged City game is scheduled in). Spurs are just too thin a squad for that, and Utd too wasteful in front of goal. I think this will definitely catch up with both of them.

    Obviously you cant calculate for injuries, but they can play a part even at this late stage.

    Chelsea, City, Pool, Arsenal for me.
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  30. #60  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yes I've tried to price up the matches with these things in mind. Also things like mid-table teams fading off towards the end of the season as they have nothing to play for while teams at the bottom step up their game as they're fighting for their lives.

    I think Utd and Spurs will use their squad for the upcoming Europa matches, so might not be too badly affected. It may harm them more in later rounds, but of course they may not make it that far.

    So it's a bit of a guessing game and not an exact science, but I think these are roughly the right prices for each game, give or take the odd 0.1 either way, here and there.
    Cool, thanks.
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