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Thread: Title Race - Expected Points

  1. #61  
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    when ManCity wins the CL and Uited wins the EL, then are 6 Teams in the CL next season?
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  2. #62  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yes I've tried to price up the matches with these things in mind. Also things like mid-table teams fading off towards the end of the season as they have nothing to play for while teams at the bottom step up their game as they're fighting for their lives.

    I think Utd and Spurs will use their squad for the upcoming Europa matches, so might not be too badly affected. It may harm them more in later rounds, but of course they may not make it that far.

    So it's a bit of a guessing game and not an exact science, but I think these are roughly the right prices for each game, give or take the odd 0.1 either way, here and there.
    I think if both utd and spurs have any sense theyll get out of EL asap.
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  3. #63  
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeIsTeRThEBeSt View Post
    when ManCity wins the CL and Uited wins the EL, then are 6 Teams in the CL next season?
    No, the most we can have is 5 places.

    If Utd and City won the Euro competitions - and if both finished outside the top 4 - then 4th place would miss out.



    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    I think if both utd and spurs have any sense theyll get out of EL asap.
    Utd are desperate to get into the CL next season, and the EL could well end up being their best route.
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  4. #64  
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    .
    MAN.CITY


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    26
    Man.Utd (h) 1.57
    27
    Sunderland (a)
    2.28
    28
    Stoke (h) 2.39
    29
    Liverpool (h)
    1.68
    30
    Arsenal (a) 1.15
    31
    Chelsea (a) 1.05
    32
    Hull (h) 2.49
    33
    Southampton (a) 1.85
    34
    West Brom (h) 2.27
    35
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.12
    36
    C.Palace (h)
    2.55
    37
    Leicester (h) 2.49
    38
    Watford (a) 2.21

    TOTAL: ........... 26.10 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 52 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 78.10 ............



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  5. #65  
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    SUMMARY

    TEAM
    EXPECTED PTS
    Chelsea
    87.35
    Man.City 78.10
    Tottenham
    76.37
    Liverpool 75.85
    Arsenal 74.92
    Man.Utd
    72.64



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  6. #66  
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    Updated...





    LIVERPOOL


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    27
    Arsenal (h)
    1.65
    28
    Burnley (h)
    2.48
    29
    Man.City (a)
    0.97
    30
    Everton (h)
    1.96
    31
    Bournemouth (h)
    2.33
    32
    Stoke (a)
    1.83
    33
    West Brom (a)
    1.86
    34
    C.Palace (h)
    2.40
    35
    Watford (a)
    2.01
    36
    Southampton (h)
    2.19
    37
    West Ham (a)
    1.96
    38
    Middlesbrough (h)
    2.43

    TOTAL: ........... 24.07 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 49 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 73.07 ............








    CHELSEA


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    27
    West Ham (a) 2.06
    28
    Watford (h)
    2.50
    29
    Stoke (a) 2.02
    30
    C.Palace (h) 2.52
    31
    Man.City (h) 1.63
    32
    Bournemouth (a) 2.11
    33
    Man.Utd (a) 1.20
    34
    Southampton (h) 2.33
    35
    Everton (a) 1.62
    36
    Middlesbrough (h) 2.53
    37
    West Brom (a) 1.97
    38
    Sunderland (h)
    2.38

    TOTAL: ........... 24.87 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 63 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 87.87 ............








    .
    TOTTENHAM


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    27
    Everton (h)
    2.01
    28
    C.Palace (a) 2.03
    29
    Southampton (h) 2.15
    30
    Burnley (a)
    1.95
    31
    Swansea (a)
    1.97
    32
    Watford (h) 2.40
    33
    Bournemouth (h)
    2.42
    34
    Leicester (a)
    1.88
    35
    Arsenal (h)
    1.49
    36
    West Ham (a) 1.95
    37
    Man.Utd (h)
    1.51
    38
    Hull (a)
    2.10

    TOTAL: ........... 23.86 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 53 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 76.86 ............








    .
    ARSENAL


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    26
    Southampton (a)
    1.76
    27
    Liverpool (a) 1.08
    28
    Leicester (h)
    2.38
    29
    West Brom (a)
    1.88
    30
    Man.City (h) 1.50
    31
    West Ham (h) 2.38
    32
    C.Palace (a) 2.10
    33
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.11
    34
    Sunderland (h) 2.56
    35
    Tottenham (a) 1.22
    36
    Man.Utd (h)
    1.56
    37
    Stoke (a) 2.04
    38
    Everton (h) 2.09

    TOTAL: ........... 24.66 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 50 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 74.66 ............







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  7. #67  
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    Have you worked out Utd's yet?
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  8. #68  
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    Quote Originally Posted by FIOS View Post
    Have you worked out Utd's yet?
    Not yet, I'll do it soon...
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  9. #69  
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    We won't be getting as many as 24 points from those games.
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  10. #70  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daymo68 View Post
    We won't be getting as many as 24 points from those games.
    Some people say you're gloomy, negative, pessimistic and an all-round killjoy... but I can't see it myself.
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  11. #71  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Some people say you're gloomy, negative, pessimistic and an all-round killjoy... but I can't see it myself.
    They can say what they like.

    Show me where I've gone wrong this season.

    Rather be realistic and right than a dreamer and wrong.
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  12. #72  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daymo68 View Post
    They can say what they like.

    Show me where I've gone wrong this season.

    Rather be realistic and right than a dreamer and wrong.
    Those Liverpool prices are realistic.

    In fact, if anything, I'm on the lower side of the market.
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  13. #73  
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    MAN.UTD


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    26
    Man.City (a) 1.15
    27
    Bournemouth (h) 2.51
    28
    Southampton (a)
    1.85
    29
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.13
    30
    West Brom (h)
    2.38
    31
    Everton (h) 2.09
    32
    Sunderland (a) 2.26
    33
    Chelsea (h) 1.52
    34
    Burnley (a)
    1.97
    35
    Swansea (h)
    2.46
    36
    Arsenal (a) 1.16
    37
    Tottenham (a)
    1.21
    38
    C.Palace (h)
    2.55

    TOTAL: ........... 25.24 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 48 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 73.24 ............



    .



    .
    MAN.CITY


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    26
    Man.Utd (h) 1.57
    27
    Sunderland (a)
    2.39
    28
    Stoke (h) 2.49
    29
    Liverpool (h)
    1.76
    30
    Arsenal (a) 1.22
    31
    Chelsea (a) 1.09
    32
    Hull (h) 2.55
    33
    Southampton (a) 1.94
    34
    West Brom (h) 2.36
    35
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.18
    36
    C.Palace (h)
    2.56
    37
    Leicester (h) 2.48
    38
    Watford (a) 2.22

    TOTAL: ........... 26.81 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 52 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 78.81 ............



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  14. #74  
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    SUMMARY

    TEAM
    EXPECTED PTS
    Chelsea
    87.87
    Man.City 78.81
    Tottenham
    76.86
    Arsenal 74.66
    Man.Utd 73.24
    Liverpool 73.07



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  15. #75  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    .
    SUMMARY

    TEAM
    EXPECTED PTS
    Chelsea
    87.87
    Man.City 78.81
    Tottenham
    76.86
    Arsenal 74.66
    Man.Utd 73.24
    Liverpool 73.07



    .
    Looks about right. The fourth place will go to one of us, Utd or Arsenal.
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  16. #76  
    TheMelwoodMole is online now First team regular
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    I think it'll be:

    Chelsea
    Spurs
    City
    Scum
    Arsenal
    Liverpool
    ?
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  17. #77  
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    Quote Originally Posted by FIOS View Post
    Looks about right. The fourth place will go to one of us, Utd or Arsenal.
    i) Arsenal always make top-4.

    ii) Spurs never finished above Arsenal since Wenger's been there.

    iii) WTF is wrong with this club if even Klopp can't break out of the 6th-8th Trophy that we've locked up for the last half-dozen years (except for the 'Suarez' season of course)?
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  18. #78  
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    Quote Originally Posted by spikop View Post
    i) Arsenal always make top-4.

    ii) Spurs never finished above Arsenal since Wenger's been there.

    iii) WTF is wrong with this club if even Klopp can't break out of the 6th-8th Trophy that we've locked up for the last half-dozen years (except for the 'Suarez' season of course)?
    Right yea but here's the thing. I'm saying this season that Spurs will finish above Arsenal and that Arsenal might not make the top four.
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  19. #79  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMelwoodMole View Post
    I think it'll be:

    Chelsea
    Spurs
    City
    Scum
    Arsenal
    Liverpool
    I'm not sure I can see Spurs finishing 2nd.

    City seem to be getting into their stride at the moment and Spurs will probably blow it at some point.
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  20. #80  
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    Chelsea
    City
    Spurs
    Arsenal
    Man Utd
    Everton
    Us

    The last 2 places are what i hope for. Why? Because I dont want EL next season. Its a killer. 4th or 7th for me and I dont think we're getting 4th so its got to be 7th.
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  21. #81  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    Chelsea
    City
    Spurs
    Arsenal
    Man Utd
    Everton
    Us

    The last 2 places are what i hope for. Why? Because I dont want EL next season. Its a killer. 4th or 7th for me and I dont think we're getting 4th so its got to be 7th.
    7th gets Europa, doesnt it?
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  22. #82  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMelwoodMole View Post
    I think it'll be:

    Chelsea
    Spurs
    City
    Scum
    Arsenal
    Liverpool
    I agree with this, unfortunately. Arsenal are looking rather vulnerable as well.
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  23. #83  
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    Quote Originally Posted by FIOS View Post
    7th gets Europa, doesnt it?
    No I thought it was 5th and 6th. Oh god do we have to finish 8th then?
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  24. #84  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cwmbran Red View Post
    I agree with this, unfortunately. Arsenal are looking rather vulnerable as well.
    Arsenal always always make top 4 and if its going to be Wenger's last he will do it.
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  25. #85  
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    Quote Originally Posted by FIOS View Post
    7th gets Europa, doesnt it?
    Yeah 7th is very likely to get Europa - and that would mean 2 extra rounds of matches compared to coming 6th and going straight into the groups.

    Unless Middlesbrough, Millwall or Lincoln can somehow win the FA Cup.
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  26. #86  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    No I thought it was 5th and 6th. Oh god do we have to finish 8th then?
    We need to be in Europe, no matter the competition.

    I hate this idea that it's better to miss out on the Europa as if we're too big for it.
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  27. #87  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMelwoodMole View Post
    I think it'll be:

    Chelsea
    Spurs
    City
    Scum
    Arsenal
    Liverpool
    I agree with this.
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  28. #88  
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    Updated...





    LIVERPOOL


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    28
    Burnley (h)
    2.48
    29
    Man.City (a)
    0.97
    30
    Everton (h)
    1.96
    31
    Bournemouth (h)
    2.33
    32
    Stoke (a)
    1.83
    33
    West Brom (a)
    1.86
    34
    C.Palace (h)
    2.40
    35
    Watford (a)
    2.01
    36
    Southampton (h)
    2.19
    37
    West Ham (a)
    1.96
    38
    Middlesbrough (h)
    2.43

    TOTAL: ........... 22.42 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 52 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 74.42 ............







    .
    MAN.UTD


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    27
    Man.City (a) 1.15
    28
    Southampton (a)
    1.85
    29
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.13
    30
    West Brom (h)
    2.38
    31
    Everton (h) 2.09
    32
    Sunderland (a) 2.26
    33
    Chelsea (h) 1.52
    34
    Burnley (a)
    1.97
    35
    Swansea (h)
    2.46
    36
    Arsenal (a) 1.16
    37
    Tottenham (a)
    1.21
    38
    C.Palace (h)
    2.55

    TOTAL: ........... 22.73 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 49 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 71.73 ............



    .



    .
    MAN.CITY


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    27
    Man.Utd (h) 1.57
    28
    Stoke (h) 2.49
    29
    Liverpool (h)
    1.76
    30
    Arsenal (a) 1.22
    31
    Chelsea (a) 1.09
    32
    Hull (h) 2.55
    33
    Southampton (a) 1.94
    34
    West Brom (h) 2.36
    35
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.18
    36
    C.Palace (h)
    2.56
    37
    Leicester (h) 2.48
    38
    Watford (a) 2.22

    TOTAL: ........... 24.42 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 55 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 79.42 ............







    .
    ARSENAL


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    27
    Southampton (a)
    1.76
    28
    Leicester (h)
    2.38
    29
    West Brom (a)
    1.88
    30
    Man.City (h) 1.50
    31
    West Ham (h) 2.38
    32
    C.Palace (a) 2.10
    33
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.11
    34
    Sunderland (h) 2.56
    35
    Tottenham (a) 1.22
    36
    Man.Utd (h)
    1.56
    37
    Stoke (a) 2.04
    38
    Everton (h) 2.09

    TOTAL: ........... 23.58 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 50 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 73.58 ............







    .
    TOTTENHAM


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    28
    C.Palace (a) 2.03
    29
    Southampton (h) 2.15
    30
    Burnley (a)
    1.95
    31
    Swansea (a)
    1.97
    32
    Watford (h) 2.40
    33
    Bournemouth (h)
    2.42
    34
    Leicester (a)
    1.88
    35
    Arsenal (h)
    1.49
    36
    West Ham (a) 1.95
    37
    Man.Utd (h)
    1.51
    38
    Hull (a)
    2.10

    TOTAL: ........... 21.85 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 56 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 77.85 ............





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  29. #89  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    SUMMARY

    TEAM
    EXPECTED PTS
    Chelsea
    87.87
    Man.City 79.42
    Tottenham
    77.85
    Liverpool 74.42
    Arsenal 73.58
    Man.Utd 71.73



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  30. #90  
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    That's more like it.

    I think we'll limp over the finish line and finish 4th.
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