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Thread: Title Race - Expected Points

  1. #1 Default Title Race - Expected Points 
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    TITLE RACE - EXPECTED POINTS




    This is a look at the expected points for each team in the title race, based on their chances of winning, drawing and losing each match.

    These are not predictions - they're probability expectations from an odds compiler's point of view, having priced up every match.






    LIVERPOOL


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    22
    Swansea (h)
    2.54
    23
    Chelsea (h)
    1.48
    24
    Hull (a)
    2.31
    25
    Tottenham (h)
    1.71
    26
    Leicester (a)
    2.01
    27
    Arsenal (h)
    1.68
    28
    Burnley (h)
    2.52
    29
    Man.City (a)
    1.09
    30
    Everton (h)
    2.09
    31
    Bournemouth (h)
    2.33
    32
    Stoke (a)
    1.98
    33
    West Brom (a)
    1.91
    34
    C.Palace (h)
    2.49
    35
    Watford (a)
    2.13
    36
    Southampton (h)
    2.22
    37
    West Ham (a)
    2.06
    38
    Middlesbrough (h)
    2.52

    TOTAL: ........... 35.07 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 45 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 80.07 ............








    CHELSEA


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    22
    Hull (h)
    2.61
    23
    Liverpool (a)
    1.24
    24
    Arsenal (h)
    1.71
    25
    Burnley (a)
    2.05
    26
    Swansea (h)
    2.57
    27
    West Ham (a) 2.04
    28
    Watford (h)
    2.47
    29
    Stoke (a) 2.00
    30
    C.Palace (h) 2.50
    31
    Man.City (h) 1.74
    32
    Bournemouth (a) 2.02
    33
    Man.Utd (a) 1.26
    34
    Southampton (h) 2.24
    35
    Everton (a) 1.69
    36
    Middlesbrough (h) 2.53
    37
    West Brom (a) 1.97
    38
    Sunderland (h)
    2.38

    TOTAL: ........... 35.02 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 52 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 87.02 ............





    Others to follow...
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  2. #2  
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    TOTTENHAM


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    22
    Man.City (a) 1.12
    23
    Sunderland (a) 2.19
    24
    Middlesbrough (h)
    2.50
    25
    Liverpool (a) 1.02
    26
    Stoke (h) 2.32
    27
    Everton (h)
    2.10
    28
    C.Palace (a) 2.02
    29
    Southampton (h) 2.17
    30
    Burnley (a)
    1.99
    31
    Swansea (a)
    2.21
    32
    Watford (h) 2.42
    33
    Bournemouth (h)
    2.32
    34
    Leicester (a)
    1.99
    35
    Arsenal (h)
    1.58
    36
    West Ham (a) 1.97
    37
    Man.Utd (h)
    1.64
    38
    Hull (a)
    2.27

    TOTAL: ........... 33.83 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 45 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 78.83 ............



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  3. #3  
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    Goes without saying, winning the League this season would be literally a dream come true, we'd all love that.

    Finish second though and secure a Champions League berth along with all the positiveness that goes along with it, happy days also.

    Klopp and the lads need to push on, and I'm confident they will.
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  4. #4  
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    ARSENAL


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    22
    Burnley (h)
    2.52
    23
    Watford (h)
    2.42
    24
    Chelsea (a) 1.03
    25
    Hull (h)
    2.57
    26
    Southampton (a)
    1.68
    27
    Liverpool (a) 1.05
    28
    Leicester (h)
    2.37
    29
    West Brom (a)
    1.89
    30
    Man.City (h) 1.66
    31
    West Ham (h) 2.41
    32
    C.Palace (a) 2.04
    33
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.11
    34
    Sunderland (h) 2.52
    35
    Tottenham (a) 1.13
    36
    Man.Utd (h)
    1.65
    37
    Stoke (a) 2.02
    38
    Everton (h) 2.19

    TOTAL: ........... 33.26 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 44 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 77.26 ............



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    MAN.CITY


    NO.
    MATCH
    EXPECTED PTS
    22
    Tottenham (h) 1.60
    23
    West Ham (a) 2.02
    24
    Swansea (h) 2.53
    25
    Bournemouth (a)
    1.93
    26
    Man.Utd (h) 1.57
    27
    Sunderland (a)
    2.15
    28
    Stoke (h) 2.30
    29
    Liverpool (h)
    1.63
    30
    Arsenal (a) 1.06
    31
    Chelsea (a) 0.99
    32
    Hull (h) 2.55
    33
    Southampton (a) 1.65
    34
    West Brom (h) 2.27
    35
    Middlesbrough (a) 2.08
    36
    C.Palace (h)
    2.46
    37
    Leicester (h) 2.41
    38
    Watford (a) 2.11

    TOTAL: ........... 33.31 ............

    CURRENT POINTS: .............. 42 ...............

    EXPECTED POINTS: ........... 75.31 ............



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  6. #6  
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    Interesting to note there's a 10 point gap between 1st and 5th over the first 21 matches, yet the expectation in the remaining ones is the teams remain within 2 points of eachother, getting 33-35 points each.
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    Quote Originally Posted by W1ggo View Post
    Interesting to note there's a 10 point gap between 1st and 5th over the first 21 matches, yet the expectation in the remaining ones is the teams remain within 2 points of eachother, getting 33-35 points each.
    Not being an expert in this area all I can say is the first 21 matches are what actually happened. The next series is what people like Darren create based on their science. I thank Darren regularly for his efforts. Always very interesting to see.

    I would be interested what the probability expectations had given for those games already played to see how close to the reality they were.
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  8. #8  
    Daymo68 is online now One Post At A Time
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    Fantastic tables as always Darren and appreciate the time and effort you take for us here to share.

    I take it tho this is a snap shot at this particular moment and can change with each week that goes by as teams form takes a hike/dip.
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  9. #9  
    Ganymede is online now Prefers one thread per page
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    Why are Man Utd not included?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganymede View Post
    Why are Man Utd not included?
    Who?
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  11. #11  
    Daymo68 is online now One Post At A Time
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganymede View Post
    Why are Man Utd not included?
    I think they should be. They are outsiders tho for sure.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganymede View Post
    Why are Man Utd not included?
    Because you'd also have to include Everton and Albion, and then it gets silly.
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  13. #13  
    Ganymede is online now Prefers one thread per page
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDouble86 View Post
    Because you'd also have to include Everton and Albion, and then it gets silly.
    Putting aside being a child for a moment, they are closer to us than we are to Chelsea and are on a better run.
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    Manu's proximity to us is irrelevant in this context, also is their current "run of form" is subjective and also irrelevant.

    I am not an odds compiler, but I'm pretty sure the method used goes beyond mug punter.
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  15. #15  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by W1ggo View Post
    Interesting to note there's a 10 point gap between 1st and 5th over the first 21 matches, yet the expectation in the remaining ones is the teams remain within 2 points of eachother, getting 33-35 points each.
    Yes, but as Edinburgher says (below) there's a difference between what's already happened and what's expected to occur in the future. In the same way that just because Spurs beat West Brom 4-0 last weekend, you wouldn't make them 4 goal favourites if they played again this weekend.

    The truth is, despite what's happened so far this season, there's not that much difference between the big 6 in terms of ability and how you would rank them against the lesser sides.


    Quote Originally Posted by Edinburgher View Post
    Not being an expert in this area all I can say is the first 21 matches are what actually happened. The next series is what people like Darren create based on their science. I thank Darren regularly for his efforts. Always very interesting to see.

    I would be interested what the probability expectations had given for those games already played to see how close to the reality they were.
    Well I think it's fair to say that Chelsea have been smashing their expectation so far.

    The whole top 6 are above the curve though and all displaying potential title-winning form at the moment.
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  16. #16  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daymo68 View Post
    Fantastic tables as always Darren and appreciate the time and effort you take for us here to share.

    I take it tho this is a snap shot at this particular moment and can change with each week that goes by as teams form takes a hike/dip.
    Yes, absolutely.

    It will change not just with form, but more importantly with results.

    A team that's 'in for' 2 points and then wins, will automatically move up a point in their total expected points - before you even consider whether their form means re-rating the rest of the matches.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ganymede View Post
    Why are Man Utd not included?
    I fully intended to, but ran out of time.

    I'll add them at some point, when I get a chance.
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  17. #17  
    lonewolf kal is offline Boot Room insider
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yes, but as Edinburgher says (below) there's a difference between what's already happened and what's expected to occur in the future. In the same way that just because Spurs beat West Brom 4-0 last weekend, you wouldn't make them 4 goal favourites if they played again this weekend.

    The truth is, despite what's happened so far this season, there's not that much difference between the big 6 in terms of ability and how you would rank them against the lesser sides.




    Well I think it's fair to say that Chelsea have been smashing their expectation so far.

    The whole top 6 are above the curve though and all displaying potential title-winning form at the moment.
    think thats a very good point and looking forward makes next season very very difficult for all. mind you, not sure what to make of city as i wouldn't exactly say they always show title winning form as they are so very inconsistent currently and i can't see that improving next season either.
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf kal View Post
    think thats a very good point and looking forward makes next season very very difficult for all. mind you, not sure what to make of city as i wouldn't exactly say they always show title winning form as they are so very inconsistent currently and i can't see that improving next season either.
    Yeah City are a strange one.

    Actually, they're probably not above the curve at the moment, as they were expected to get around 2 points per game at the start of the season - which is exactly what they have.

    They're quite a difficult side to price up as you always feel they're capable of so much more than they tend to deliver.
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  19. #19  
    lonewolf kal is offline Boot Room insider
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yeah City are a strange one.

    Actually, they're probably not above the curve at the moment, as they were expected to get around 2 points per game at the start of the season - which is exactly what they have.

    They're quite a difficult side to price up as you always feel they're capable of so much more than they tend to deliver.
    and that i think sums up city perfectly and likely why pep was bought in in the first place. it really looks to be a bigger job than any envisaged and with the rest of the top six becoming more stable - ouch. thought im still not 100% convinced spuds can break into top four currently (give or take a season without some magic)
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  20. #20  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf kal View Post
    and that i think sums up city perfectly and likely why pep was bought in in the first place. it really looks to be a bigger job than any envisaged and with the rest of the top six becoming more stable - ouch. thought im still not 100% convinced spuds can break into top four currently (give or take a season without some magic)
    Well Pep's methods translated from Barca to Bayern, but would they translate from Halmstads to Malmo, to Orebo to Neuchatel Xamax, to the Swiss national team and to Man.City?
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  21. #21  
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    Pft, everybody knows that you can't finish on decimal points.



    Very interesting, I feel like Chelsea have the toughest run in but it will be difficult.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganymede View Post
    Why are Man Utd not included?
    Go to Manu ure forum and check it out there.....you'll feel at home there anyway
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    It may be a silly question, but why do the expected points from matches not add up to 3?

    For example Liverpool v Chelsea : 1.48 v 1.24.......
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  24. #24  
    Ganymede is online now Prefers one thread per page
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post

    I fully intended to, but ran out of time.

    I'll add them at some point, when I get a chance.
    Ok, cool.

    Cheers.
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  25. #25  
    lonewolf kal is offline Boot Room insider
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Well Pep's methods translated from Barca to Bayern, but would they translate from Halmstads to Malmo, to Orebo to Neuchatel Xamax, to the Swiss national team and to Man.City?
    good question. think half the issue with city goes beyond that - needs a clean slate before they can go forward imo.
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  26. #26  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by W1ggo View Post
    It may be a silly question, but why do the expected points from matches not add up to 3?

    For example Liverpool v Chelsea : 1.48 v 1.24.......
    Because matches will either have 2 points or 3 points given out - depending on whether it's a draw or not.

    So if there's a 28% chance of a draw, then the expected points for that match will be 2.72.
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  27. #27  
    Darrren1 is online now Better tables than DFS
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf kal View Post
    good question. think half the issue with city goes beyond that - needs a clean slate before they can go forward imo.
    Yeah, let's hope it takes about 5 years to achieve that.
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  28. #28  
    lonewolf kal is offline Boot Room insider
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darrren1 View Post
    Yeah, let's hope it takes about 5 years to achieve that.
    fine by me
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  29. #29  
    TheRiedle is online now First team regular
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    It's quite simple really we just need to gain 7 points from somewhere and hope Chelsea drop points.
    ?
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  30. #30  
    lonewolf kal is offline Boot Room insider
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMelwoodMole View Post
    It's quite simple really we just need to gain 7 points from somewhere and hope Chelsea drop points.
    true. im just hoping that they finally get a decent injury blip to key players, would make a change.
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