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Thread: Changing Places - Premier and Championship

  1. #61  
    TheDarknessIsCalling is online now Academy prospect
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    Reckon Hull might escape, I'd tip Boro, Palace and Sunderland to go down given fixtures against top sides and predicament.


    Looks as if Newcastle are making light of a tricky looking run, playing 3 promotion rivals in a row away and dispatching 2 already with almost nonchalance (not really, just sounds good as does the word)

    Championship

    1. Newcastle P35 PTS 76 (GD +40)
    2. Brighton P36 PTS 71 (GD +27)
    ---------------------------------------------
    3. Huddersfield P34 PTS 65 (GD +6)
    4. Leeds P35 PTS 64 (GD +14)
    5. Reading P35 PTS 63 (GD +3)


    Newcastle

    Home (6) : Fulham 7th, Wigan 23rd, Burton 19th, Leeds 4th, Preston 9th, Barnsley 11th
    Away (5) : Reading 5th, Birmingham 17th, Sheff Wed 6th, Ipswich 15th, Cardiff 12th


    Brighton

    Home (5) : Derby 10th, Blackburn 20th, Birmingham 17th, Wigan 23rd, Bristol C 22nd
    Away (5) : Rotherham 24th, Leeds 4th, QPR 16th, Wolves 21st, Norwich 8th, A Villa 13th

    Huddersfield

    Home (6) : A Villa 13th, Burton 19th, Norwich 8th, Preston 9th, Fulham 7th, Cardiff 12th
    Away (6) : Brentford 14th, Bristol C 22nd, Notts Forest 18th, Derby 10th, Wolves 21st, Birmingham 14th



    Definite advantage Newcastle now, beaten two nearest rivals and Brighton lost away to forest at the weekend so cushion of 5 points +1 likely for GD over 2nd and 11 points +1 for GD over Huddersfield. Win half their games and Newcastle would be over 90 points which Huddersfield would have to win 8+ out of 12 to catch up.

    Brighton have lost momentum, but still effectively 5+1 points ahead of Huddersfield. The play-off places look to be settling in below, Huddersfield, Leeds, Reading and Sheff Wed between 61 and 65 points and Fulham the only side within NINE having also a game in hand on the owls. Still time for late surges, but can't help but feel play-offs will be a perm of those four plus Brighton and Fulham.

    forest need to focus on avoiding the drop, six points clear of 22nd but GD in the same street as sides 15th down to 23rd so no complacency with 11+ games to go
    Last edited by TheDarknessIsCalling; 12-3-17 at 10:08. Reason: Huddersfield have been bold this season, made their name thus too!
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  2. #62  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    They must've been constrained by budget. But on the other hand, who'd really want to play for Muddlesbrough? (shudder)
    Well they did have in mid 90s Ravanelli, Fjortoft, Juninho, Emerson, Barmby, Festa got to a few Cup Finals and looks like a team what was it on the up
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeautifulHistory View Post
    Well they did have in mid 90s Ravanelli, Fjortoft, Juninho, Emerson, Barmby, Festa got to a few Cup Finals and looks like a team what was it on the up
    They probably thought that they were signing for Scarborough instead of Middlesbrough.

    I don't like 'em. Never have. Never will.
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  4. #64  
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    Another less than dull weekend in the Championship. Barcodes lost at home to Fulham, Brighton beat Derby on Friday quite comfortably and Huddersfield narrowly won at Brentford leaving the top three with a gap as Leeds could only draw, Sheff Wed lost at villa and Reading lost away to Preston who've moved nearer to the play-offs

    Championship

    1. Newcastle P37 PTS 77 (GD +38)
    2. Brighton P37 PTS 77 (GD +32)
    ---------------------------------------------
    3. Huddersfield P36 PTS 71 (GD +8)
    4. Leeds P37 PTS 66 (GD +14)
    5. Reading P37 PTS 64 (GD 0)
    6. Sheff Wed P37 PTS 62 (GD +11)
    ---------------------------------------------
    7. Fulham P36 PTS 60 (GD +21)


    I've brought in two teams to show the play-off picture too, Preston are six points off Sheff Wed having played the same number of games and Norwich a further two points adrift, Derby two more than that, so could still make it into the top six but not currently looking like bridging the gap with only 9-10 games left for the sides up there.


    Newcastle

    Home (5) : Wigan 23rd, Burton 18th, Leeds 4th, Preston 8th, Barnsley 11th
    Away (4) : Birmingham 17th, Sheff Wed 6th, Ipswich 16th, Cardiff 13th

    Brighton

    Home (4) : Blackburn 22nd, Birmingham 17th, Wigan 23rd, Bristol C 21st
    Away (5) : Leeds 4th, QPR 15th, Wolves 20th, Norwich 9th, A Villa 12th

    Huddersfield

    Home (5) : Burton 18th, Norwich 9th, Preston 8th, Fulham 7th, Cardiff 13th
    Away (5) : Bristol C 21st, Notts Forest 19th, Derby 10th, Wolves 20th, Birmingham 17th



    Last 10 form

    Huddersfield P10 W8 D1 L1 PTS 25
    Newcastle P10 W5 D4 L1 PTS 19
    Brighton P10 W5 D2 L3 PTS 17


    Huddersfield have drawn and lost in the FA Cup but that's excluded, league form only. Among their victims are Brighton, Leeds and Reading, all at home, the one loss to Newcastle also at home. They might be good outside bets for automatic promotion as they seem to be beating all comers bar Newcastle and a slight stumble at Huddersfield. That said they face several visitors seeking to make the play-offs, and a few scrapping for their survival so may not be so straightforward and they do have six points plus one for inferior GD to make up albeit with a game in hand.

    Brighton have nothing daunting left in terms of fixtures, same potential banana skins as Huddersfield in terms of relegation scrappers and a couple of play-off seekers. They have the weakest form of the three, but suffered a defeat at Huddersfield and late heartbreak at home to the barcodes with the other loss at Notts Forest. Their form all season has been far from long winning runs, but it is perhaps important to note of their six league defeats FOUR have come in the last 13 games compared to two in the previous 24.

    Newcastle's defeat at home to Fulham was their first league defeat in 13 league games, makes interesting comparison to the four suffered by Brighton in the same period - and they'd played all top 3 rivals plus Reading so not like it was an 'easy run'. Be a shame for Brighton not to go up, but for the bl**dy play-offs they could all three go up.



    Think it could be quite important to Brighton's chances of automatic promotion to win at Leeds next up, after that they've got a run of games that look pretty winnable until Norwich. Could be a tight finish and perhaps mean they have to win at villa on the last day, but they need to improve on their form I reckon, could easily be three teams on 90+ points and I reckon Brighton might need 95+ to go up automatically. At least if they insist on play-offs they ought to have some kind of weighting for sides who finish way ahead of opponents.
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    Looks like Sunderland and Newcastle are nailed on to swap places, now.
    No doubt there's plenty of jolly banter between the two sets of supporters up in the North-East

    Still a degree of flux for the other contenders.
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  6. #66  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    Looks like Sunderland and Newcastle are nailed on to swap places, now.
    No doubt there's plenty of jolly banter between the two sets of supporters up in the North-East

    Still a degree of flux for the other contenders.
    Newcastle haven't moved any, not sure they are "nailed on" for anything, although likely to go up. They are 7 points plus GD ahead of Uddersfield, but the terriers have a game in hand so could still go to the wire
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarknessIsCalling View Post
    Newcastle haven't moved any, not sure they are "nailed on" for anything, although likely to go up. They are 7 points plus GD ahead of Uddersfield, but the terriers have a game in hand so could still go to the wire
    Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield... I don't mind any of 'em coming up, in any order... as long as Leeds get shut out.

    And Muddlesbrough to go back where they belong, of course.
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  8. #68  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield... I don't mind any of 'em coming up, in any order... as long as Leeds get shut out.

    And Muddlesbrough to go back where they belong, of course.
    I kinda want Brighton up, not least when I play old management games they are prime for underdog managing (lowest value of squad if you sell the lot, small squad, smallest stadium etc), but also they've come close in the past so seeing sides who float a number of people's boats, or so it seems with their keenness and "right" to be back in the Premier League, and others do so little any other time to "deserve" a(nother) stint in the top flight.

    Isn't it like 30+ years since Brighton were in the top flight and making big clubs nervous in cup finals? Let Uddersfield come up in the play-offs or next year, in fact that's my preference as I hate the play-offs and no less so when the side finishing 3rd pishes all over the next placed side in terms of points
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    And the relegation battle

    LEICESTER FIXTURES
    Apr 1: Stoke (H), Apr 4: Sunderland (H), Apr 9: Everton (A), Apr 15: Crystal Palace (A), Apr 26: Arsenal (A), Apr 29: West Brom (A), May 6: Watford (H), May 13: Man City (A), May 21: Bournemouth (H), TBA: Spurs (H)

    PALACE FIXTURES
    Apr 1: Chelsea (A), Apr 5: Southampton (A), Apr 10: Arsenal (H), Apr 15: Leicester (H), Apr 23: Liverpool (A), Apr 26: Spurs (H), Apr 29: Burnley (H), May 6: Man City (A), May 13: Hull (H), May 21: Man United (A)

    SWANSEA FIXTURES
    Apr 2: Middlesbrough (H), Apr 5: Spurs (H), Apr 8: West Ham (A), Apr 15: Watford (A), Apr 22: Stoke (H), Apr 30: Man United (A), May 6: Everton (H), May 13: Sunderland (A), May 21: West Brom (H)

    HULL CITY FIXTURES
    Apr 1: West Ham (H), Apr 5: Middlesbrough (H), Apr 8: Man City (A), Apr 15: Stoke (A), Apr 22: Watford (H), Apr 29: Southampton (A), May 6: Sunderland (H), May 13: Crystal Palace (A), May 21: Spurs (H)

    BORO FIXTURES
    Apr 2: Swansea (A), Apr 5: Hull (A), Apr 8: Burnley (H), Apr 17: Arsenal (H), Apr 22: Bournemouth (A), Apr 26: Sunderland (H), Apr 30: Man City (H), May 8: Chelsea (A), May 13: Southampton (H), May 21: Liverpool (A)

    SUNDERLAND GAMES
    Apr 1: Watford (A), Apr 4: Leicester (A), Apr 9: Man United (H), Apr 15: West Ham (H), Apr 26: Middlesbrough (A), Apr 29: Bournemouth (H), May 6: Hull (A), May 13: Swansea (H), May 21: Chelsea (A), TBA: Arsenal (A)
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    And the Promotion runners and riders left in this years challenge

    Newcastle Run-in: Wigan (H), Burton (H), Sheffield Wednesday (A), Leeds (H), Ipswich (A), Preston (H), Cardiff (A), Barnsley (H)

    Brighton Run-in: Blackburn (H), Birmingham (H), QPR (A), Wolves (A), Wigan (H), Norwich (A), Bristol City (H), Aston Villa (A)

    Huddersfield Run-in: Burton (H), Norwich (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Preston (H), Derby (A), Fulham (H), Wolves (A), Birmingham (A), Cardiff (H)

    Leeds Run-in: Reading (A), Brentford (A), Preston (H), Newcastle (A), Wolves (H), Burton (A), Norwich (H), Wigan (A)

    Reading Run-in: Leeds (H), Blackburn (H), Norwich (A), Aston Villa (A), Rotherham (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Wigan (H), Burton (A)

    Sheff Wed Run-in: Barnsley (A), Rotherham (A), Newcastle (H), Cardiff (H), QPR (A), Derby (H), Ipswich (A), Fulham (H)

    Fulham Run-in: Rotherham (A), Derby (A), Ipswich (H), Norwich (A), Aston Villa (H), Huddersfield (A), Brentford (H), Sheffield Wednesday (A)

    Norwich Run-in: Aston Villa (A), Huddersfield (A), Reading (H), Fulham (H), Preston (A), Brighton (H), Leeds (A), QPR (H)

    Preston North End Run-in: Nottingham Forest (H), Bristol City (H), Leeds (A), Huddersfield (A), Norwich (H), Newcastle (A), Rotherham (H), Wolves (A)
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  11. #71  
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    Palace have to play all of 2-6, will be hoping to repeat what happened to #1 yesterday

    Boro still have to play us, Arsenal, citeh and indeed chelski so will take some doing to make up the 5 point gap and find some kind of scoring form - scored ONE goal in their last five league outings, matching their points from those games to boot, and aside from their FA Cup ties against lower league opponents Oxford (W3-2) and Sheff Wed (W3-0), haven't scored more than once since December 17th against Swansea (W3-0)

    Looking grim for boro and sunderland, palace will hope recent form and that win at Stamford Bridge will aid their plight but half their remaining games won't be easy and it has taken some good form just to get them 4 points ahead of 18th

    Southampton (a) - not the side they have been, but still not easily beaten at home, Chelsea and Tottenham 2 of the 4 victorious visitors
    Arsenal (h) - lost 4 of their last 5, but will need points to sustain their top 4 record/place
    Leicester (h) - still dangerously close to the bottom three
    Liverpool (a) - we'll be wanting 3 points, won't be easy
    Tottenham (h) - fighting for top 4, possibly one eye and that too many on the side above them
    Burnley (h) - one of the easier looking games for palace
    Man City (a) - wanting a top 4 place, won't be easy
    Hull (h) - relegation scrap
    Man United (a) - not going to be easy, even if the hosts draw a lot, overall and at home

    No game is "easy" when around the bottom of the table, but even if you try to put them in some kind of order of "ease" then Burnley at home, Leicester at home and Hull at home isn't much of an "easy" selection of games as can be, especially since two are within six points of 18th.


    Remarkably Stoke in 9th are only 9 points ahead of Hull in 18th, so half the table separated by that margin. I noticed only the top eight had won more games than they'd lost, didn't realise even Stoke aren't entirely safe nor are Southampton, Bournemouth, or Watford (34 points), probably as I wasn't looking at points totals beyond the CL placings at the time.
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  12. #72  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    And the relegation battle
    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    And the Promotion runners and riders left in this years challenge
    Thanks for those two, Ronnie.
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  13. #73  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    Thanks for those two, Ronnie.
    No worries
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarknessIsCalling View Post
    Palace have to play all of 2-6, will be hoping to repeat what happened to #1 yesterday

    Boro still have to play us, Arsenal, citeh and indeed chelski so will take some doing to make up the 5 point gap and find some kind of scoring form - scored ONE goal in their last five league outings, matching their points from those games to boot, and aside from their FA Cup ties against lower league opponents Oxford (W3-2) and Sheff Wed (W3-0), haven't scored more than once since December 17th against Swansea (W3-0)

    Looking grim for boro and sunderland, palace will hope recent form and that win at Stamford Bridge will aid their plight but half their remaining games won't be easy and it has taken some good form just to get them 4 points ahead of 18th

    Southampton (a) - not the side they have been, but still not easily beaten at home, Chelsea and Tottenham 2 of the 4 victorious visitors
    Arsenal (h) - lost 4 of their last 5, but will need points to sustain their top 4 record/place
    Leicester (h) - still dangerously close to the bottom three
    Liverpool (a) - we'll be wanting 3 points, won't be easy
    Tottenham (h) - fighting for top 4, possibly one eye and that too many on the side above them
    Burnley (h) - one of the easier looking games for palace
    Man City (a) - wanting a top 4 place, won't be easy
    Hull (h) - relegation scrap
    Man United (a) - not going to be easy, even if the hosts draw a lot, overall and at home

    No game is "easy" when around the bottom of the table, but even if you try to put them in some kind of order of "ease" then Burnley at home, Leicester at home and Hull at home isn't much of an "easy" selection of games as can be, especially since two are within six points of 18th.


    Remarkably Stoke in 9th are only 9 points ahead of Hull in 18th, so half the table separated by that margin. I noticed only the top eight had won more games than they'd lost, didn't realise even Stoke aren't entirely safe nor are Southampton, Bournemouth, or Watford (34 points), probably as I wasn't looking at points totals beyond the CL placings at the time.
    The run in for the top four places is certainly full of traps and mines. So many ifs and buts... No assurances for anyone's final place, except Chelsea (unless they totally implode).
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    Surprised Sunderland didn't get rid of moyes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mouldiogs View Post
    Surprised Sunderland didn't get rid of moyes.
    Indecision in the boardroom.

    'Could we get another manager in at short notice?'

    'Mr Di Canio's available... we could get him back.'

    'Right... so Moyes stays, then.'
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  17. #77  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mouldiogs View Post
    Surprised Sunderland didn't get rid of moyes.
    Might have considered it and not got a suitable replacement, maybe didn't realise soon enough Gollum is cr ap, maybe they figured they'd be going down anyway, maybe they didn't want to pay out a large sum (possibly twice depending on who came in and where they were), maybe they're just stupid.

    They've won just one game in 2017, that over palace, and for a side that needs to make up quite a gap so win a few of their last 9 games, they have won two games in a row just ONCE all season and just seven in total. Reckon they'd need to win minimum 4 games and even then draw another 3-5 to have a remote chance of staying up. Realistically they'd need to win 6-7 games which is as many as they have in all competitions already, and 1-2 more than they've won in the league in 29 games.

    It's not like they don't have any decent players, I mean Defoe, Larsson, Januzaj, Pickford that so many seem interested in, O'Shea and a few bitter rejects in Pienaar, Anichebe, Oviedo, Rodwell and Lescott, plus Borini from us, in fact you can make an XI out of ex Everton, Arsenal and Man Utd players :

    Mannone (Arsenal)
    McNair (Man Utd)
    O'Shea (Man Utd)
    Lescott (Everton)
    Oviedo (Everton)
    Pienaar (Everton)
    Larsson (Arsenal)
    Rodwell (Everton)
    Gibson (Man Utd)
    Januzaj (Man Utd, loan)
    Anichebe (Everton)

    A little makeshift, not necessarily where they like to or normally play, but I'm not sure how many other teams in any league can field an XI comprising players from only 3 different former clubs, it's quite remarkable regardless whether feeding off 'big club scraps' works or not.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    Indecision in the boardroom.

    'Could we get another manager in at short notice?'

    'Mr Di Canio's available... we could get him back.'

    'Right... so Moyes stays, then.'
    They just accepted they are going down.
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  19. #79  
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    Good result for Brighton last night, won 2-1 at Loftus Road and restored their 10 point lead over Huddersfield at the top and moved above Newcastle, the others having games in hand.

    BUT, as we head full speed towards the end of the season there are only 7, 6 and 5 games remaining for Huddersfield, Newcastle and Brighton respectively so points on the board are going to start making games in hand very much the less advantageous

    1. Brighton P41 PTS 86 (GD +34)
    2. Newcastle P40 PTS 84 (GD +40)
    ---------------------------------------------
    3. Huddersfield P39 PTS 74 (GD +6)
    4. Reading P40 PTS 73 (GD +5)
    5. Leeds P40 PTS 69 (GD +13)
    6. Sheff Wed P40 PTS 66 (GD +11)
    ---------------------------------------------
    7. Fulham P40 PTS 64 (GD +18)
    8. Preston P40 PTS 61 (GD +11)
    9. Derby P40 PTS 59 (GD +6)


    AUTOMATIC PLACES

    Huddersfield may have two games in hand on Brighton, but are TWELVE points adrift and can only achieve a maximum of 95 points. If Brighton win just two of their last five games and even if they lose the other three then they'll be on 92 points forcing Huddersfield to win all but one of their remaining games and draw the other. Their GD is surely too far behind so they'd need 93 points, another 19 so W6 D1 L0 - a tall order.

    Think it's fairly safe to say Reading could catch the top two if the latter fell apart, but they've less games in hand and their maximum points are 91 so Brighton's minimum six points scenario would make it impossible for Reading to catch them and Leeds et al are already five wins behind Newcastle with only six games left so play-offs are what they'll aim to consolidate

    PLAY-OFFS

    It's almost a given the top three team that doesn't go up automatically will almost certainly hold onto their play-off place, Huddersfield in 3rd have 10 points on 7th and a game in hand albeit inferior GD. Fulham are pressing for 6th and higher, Preston perhaps might need to win 5-6 of their remaining games to have much of a hope, that would give them 15-18 points to take them onto 76-79 which could put some pressure on Sheff Wed or any side that may displace them in 6th.

    Maximum points for likely play-off contenders (current total in brackets):

    3. Huddersfield 95 (74)
    4. Reading 91 (73)
    5. Leeds 87 (69)
    6. Sheff Wed 84 (66)
    7. Fulham 82 (64)
    8. Preston 79 (61)
    9. Derby 77 (59)

    Norwich and villa are on 57 and could manage 75, but the prospects of Sheff Wed not picking up 10 points (catchable GD) AND Fulham not picking up 11 (better GD by some), OR put another way the sides above all dropping enough points for Norwich and villa to overtake them, are pretty slim. Despite so many liking the play-offs for extending the season, supposed excitement etc, there aren't 10 or so teams in serious contention even with six games to go (about 1/8 of the season)

    And with one side down already and Wigan all but gone, relying on a combination of them picking up points and the teams they can catch not picking up enough to stay about them (7 points from safety), a lot of the crucial bits regarding promotion and relegation are nearly decided. All play-offs do is give a side that doesn't deserve to go up the chance to pip a side that does - sometimes it's close enough you can argue it's fair, but I reckon they should only have play-offs if the gap to 4th is less than say five points and involve then sides within X points (so could involve no play-off, a play-off of 2, 3, 4 or maybe more sides, you'd have to analyse the previous seasons to gauge it)
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarknessIsCalling View Post
    Good result for Brighton last night, won 2-1 at Loftus Road and restored their 10 point lead over Huddersfield at the top and moved above Newcastle, the others having games in hand.

    BUT, as we head full speed towards the end of the season there are only 7, 6 and 5 games remaining for Huddersfield, Newcastle and Brighton respectively so points on the board are going to start making games in hand very much the less advantageous

    1. Brighton P41 PTS 86 (GD +34)
    2. Newcastle P40 PTS 84 (GD +40)
    ---------------------------------------------
    3. Huddersfield P39 PTS 74 (GD +6)
    4. Reading P40 PTS 73 (GD +5)
    5. Leeds P40 PTS 69 (GD +13)
    6. Sheff Wed P40 PTS 66 (GD +11)
    ---------------------------------------------
    7. Fulham P40 PTS 64 (GD +18)
    8. Preston P40 PTS 61 (GD +11)
    9. Derby P40 PTS 59 (GD +6)


    AUTOMATIC PLACES

    Huddersfield may have two games in hand on Brighton, but are TWELVE points adrift and can only achieve a maximum of 95 points. If Brighton win just two of their last five games and even if they lose the other three then they'll be on 92 points forcing Huddersfield to win all but one of their remaining games and draw the other. Their GD is surely too far behind so they'd need 93 points, another 19 so W6 D1 L0 - a tall order.

    Think it's fairly safe to say Reading could catch the top two if the latter fell apart, but they've less games in hand and their maximum points are 91 so Brighton's minimum six points scenario would make it impossible for Reading to catch them and Leeds et al are already five wins behind Newcastle with only six games left so play-offs are what they'll aim to consolidate

    PLAY-OFFS

    It's almost a given the top three team that doesn't go up automatically will almost certainly hold onto their play-off place, Huddersfield in 3rd have 10 points on 7th and a game in hand albeit inferior GD. Fulham are pressing for 6th and higher, Preston perhaps might need to win 5-6 of their remaining games to have much of a hope, that would give them 15-18 points to take them onto 76-79 which could put some pressure on Sheff Wed or any side that may displace them in 6th.

    Maximum points for likely play-off contenders (current total in brackets):

    3. Huddersfield 95 (74)
    4. Reading 91 (73)
    5. Leeds 87 (69)
    6. Sheff Wed 84 (66)
    7. Fulham 82 (64)
    8. Preston 79 (61)
    9. Derby 77 (59)

    Norwich and villa are on 57 and could manage 75, but the prospects of Sheff Wed not picking up 10 points (catchable GD) AND Fulham not picking up 11 (better GD by some), OR put another way the sides above all dropping enough points for Norwich and villa to overtake them, are pretty slim. Despite so many liking the play-offs for extending the season, supposed excitement etc, there aren't 10 or so teams in serious contention even with six games to go (about 1/8 of the season)

    And with one side down already and Wigan all but gone, relying on a combination of them picking up points and the teams they can catch not picking up enough to stay about them (7 points from safety), a lot of the crucial bits regarding promotion and relegation are nearly decided. All play-offs do is give a side that doesn't deserve to go up the chance to pip a side that does - sometimes it's close enough you can argue it's fair, but I reckon they should only have play-offs if the gap to 4th is less than say five points and involve then sides within X points (so could involve no play-off, a play-off of 2, 3, 4 or maybe more sides, you'd have to analyse the previous seasons to gauge it)
    Thank you, Darkness. A good summation of the situation, as always.

    I usually find the permutations of the closing stages of the Championship more interesting than the struggles at the bottom of the Premier.
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    fredthecamel is online now First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    Thank you, Darkness. A good summation of the situation, as always.

    I usually find the permutations of the closing stages of the Championship more interesting than the struggles at the bottom of the Premier.
    sheff wednesday in the playoffs
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    Quote Originally Posted by fredthecamel View Post
    sheff wednesday in the playoffs
    And no Leeds.
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    TheDarknessIsCalling is online now Academy prospect
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    Relegation from the Premier League looks like Sunderland nailed on, boro look in deep deep trouble, then any four teams (strong contenders) and a further six outsiders.

    To repeat the maximum points routine :

    09. Southampton 64 (37)
    10. Watford 61 (37)
    11. Leicester 60 (36)
    12. Stoke 57 (36)
    13. Bournemouth 56 (35)
    14. Burnley 56 (35)
    15. West Ham 54 (33)
    16. C Palace 55 (31)
    17. Hull 51 (30)
    ------------------------------------
    18. Swansea 49 (28)
    19. Middlesboro 47 (23)
    20. Sunderland 44 (20)

    It's fair to guess that none will pick up their maximum, very unlikely given they'd be picking up nearly as many points in 7-9 games as they have in the preceding 29-31.

    I won't go into fixtures (again), but will point out palace play Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Man City and Man Utd so may look like they are pulling away but have only three games that aren't against sides vying at the top of the table for top four places - regardless of (freak) wins over the leaders and probable champions. Still they only have to pick up 9 points to reach the magical come mythical line of safety that so many for so long said was "needed" to stay up ie 40 points. So often it isn't, but hey ho.

    40 points needed to stay up?

    Last 10 seasons

    40 points needed : x0*
    Maximum points finished 18th : 39 (GD -21) Birmingham 10/11
    Average points finished 18th : 35.4
    Lowest finished 18th : 30 (GD -40) Burnley 09/10
    37 points sufficient : x7 (+1 if you count 37 and GD)

    *you can argue 40 points would have been safe, but 39 points and a better GD would have sufficed every season

    Previous 10 seasons

    40 points needed : x2**
    Maximum points finished 18th : 42 (GD -17) West Ham 02/03
    Average points finished 18th : 36.1
    Lowest finished 18th : 33 (3 occasions, GD of -17, -21, and -28)
    37 points sufficient : x7

    **you can argue 40 points would have been safe, but 39 points and a better GD would have sufficed every season. One season 42 points were needed.

    So 40 points needed to survive is a bit of a longstanding myth, 14 times you could have survived with 37 points in the past 20 seasons even without doing it on GD (15/20 or 75% if you do)
    People will believe what they want to believe
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    Yes, D... the 40 points target has been a 'mind bogie' for too long. Interesting figures.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarknessIsCalling View Post
    Relegation from the Premier League looks like Sunderland nailed on, boro look in deep deep trouble, then any four teams (strong contenders) and a further six outsiders.

    To repeat the maximum points routine :

    09. Southampton 64 (37)
    10. Watford 61 (37)
    11. Leicester 60 (36)
    12. Stoke 57 (36)
    13. Bournemouth 56 (35)
    14. Burnley 56 (35)
    15. West Ham 54 (33)
    16. C Palace 55 (31)
    17. Hull 51 (30)
    ------------------------------------
    18. Swansea 49 (28)
    19. Middlesboro 47 (23)
    20. Sunderland 44 (20)

    It's fair to guess that none will pick up their maximum, very unlikely given they'd be picking up nearly as many points in 7-9 games as they have in the preceding 29-31.

    I won't go into fixtures (again), but will point out palace play Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Man City and Man Utd so may look like they are pulling away but have only three games that aren't against sides vying at the top of the table for top four places - regardless of (freak) wins over the leaders and probable champions. Still they only have to pick up 9 points to reach the magical come mythical line of safety that so many for so long said was "needed" to stay up ie 40 points. So often it isn't, but hey ho.

    40 points needed to stay up?

    Last 10 seasons

    40 points needed : x0*
    Maximum points finished 18th : 39 (GD -21) Birmingham 10/11
    Average points finished 18th : 35.4
    Lowest finished 18th : 30 (GD -40) Burnley 09/10
    37 points sufficient : x7 (+1 if you count 37 and GD)

    *you can argue 40 points would have been safe, but 39 points and a better GD would have sufficed every season

    Previous 10 seasons

    40 points needed : x2**
    Maximum points finished 18th : 42 (GD -17) West Ham 02/03
    Average points finished 18th : 36.1
    Lowest finished 18th : 33 (3 occasions, GD of -17, -21, and -28)
    37 points sufficient : x7

    **you can argue 40 points would have been safe, but 39 points and a better GD would have sufficed every season. One season 42 points were needed.

    So 40 points needed to survive is a bit of a longstanding myth, 14 times you could have survived with 37 points in the past 20 seasons even without doing it on GD (15/20 or 75% if you do)
    Nice work there - but I see the 40 points target differently -
    the target is 40 points - coz it guarantees safety - not coz you may still go down
    As you have shown only 3 times has 40 points failed in 20 years
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Nice work there - but I see the 40 points target differently -
    the target is 40 points - coz it guarantees safety - not coz you may still go down
    As you have shown only 3 times has 40 points failed in 20 years
    You are rewording it though, I didn't say 40 points isn't a target and doesn't guarantee safety (which it doesn't anyway, but I didn't say it)

    I deliberately used the word "needed", so obviously it's better to aim at 40 and increase your chances of staying up by getting there, but it isn't necessary a lot of the time.........


    You could do the same for top four finishes, argue say 73 points are "needed" even though 68.2 is the average points of those finishing 4th in the 38 game Premier League era and only THREE times in those 21 seasons has a side finished with 73 points or more. Go one further and argue about needing only to finish above 5th, average points finishing 5th in that same period is 63.6 points and you wouldn't have needed anything like 70 points to finish 4th most of the time because:

    Points finishing 5th (95/96-15/16)

    72 : x2
    67 : x1
    66 : x3
    65 : x4
    64 or less : x11

    What's needed and what's the target are two different things, my point is/was that people talk about the magic "40 points" as safety and it isn't needed most of the time, maybe I'm playing a game of semantics and taking apart the way people say it, but still to survive 40 points AGAIN may not be needed this season. It looks as if Swansea could make it that far, I doubt boro will, so this season could be one of the exceptions, but it isn't like pundits and all else who talk about "points needed for survival" are all doing so only now at this stage of the season when they say it.

    No great surprise someone decided to defend the myth though Not that you don't see most things "differently", you may not be alone for a change though
    People will believe what they want to believe
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    Thank you, Darkness. A good summation of the situation, as always.

    I usually find the permutations of the closing stages of the Championship more interesting than the struggles at the bottom of the Premier.
    Sorry, forgot to say thank you as I got a little too focused on ron's reply.

    Whilst the play-offs can be intriguing, I always feel at the end of it a bit 'empty' because if the side finishing third doesn't go up then I feel they're robbed, and if they do go up I feel it was a wasted exercise.

    I do wonder how much of the contention at the top is down to loans.

    Key loanees at the top? (total apps)

    Newcastle (32 apps) - Atsu 30 apps (Chelsea)
    Brighton (32 apps) - Pocognolli 17 apps (WBA), Akpom 8 apps (Arsenal), Tomori 7 apps (Chelsea)
    Huddersfield (133 apps) - Kachunga 34 apps (FC Ingolstadt 04), Mooy 33 apps (Man City), Ward 31 apps (Liverpool), Palmer 26 apps (Chelsea), Brown 9 apps (Chelsea)
    Reading (24 apps) - Mutch 9 apps (C Palace), Oxford 4 apps (West Ham), Grabban 11 apps (Bournemouth)
    Leeds (174 apps) - Bartley 45 apps (Swansea), Sacko 38 apps (Sporting CP), Grimes 12 apps (Swansea), Hernandez 33 apps (Al-Arabi), Jansson 32 apps (Torino), Meadows n/a (Roma), Pedraza 9 apps (Villareal), Barrow 5 apps (Swansea)

    Huddersfield definitely benefitting from taking a player they might not otherwise have been able to afford, on the flip side I have to question the benefit of Premier League (or other top league) clubs loaning a player down to the Championship who doesn't play much. Huddersfield you have to question where they'd be without their loanees, their top scorer is Kachunga with 10 goals, they have 11 goals from other loanees (can't be bothered to try and find out assists), and have our keeper in goal so 21 goals when they've scored only 50 in the league and 60 overall is a fair contribution and their loanees rank 1st, 3rd and joint 4th in the top scorers stakes. Maybe that's the difference between this season and last:

    15/16 Huddersfield 19th (51 points from 46 games, GD -11)
    16/17 Huddersfield 3rd (74 points from 40 games, GD +4 )

    Quite a turnaround, not unheard of if you look at Leicester 14/15 vs 15/16, but their only loanee was Dyer who made some impact but not a massive one (1 goal in 14 apps, the goal and all 12 league apps off the bench)
    People will believe what they want to believe
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarknessIsCalling View Post
    Sorry, forgot to say thank you as I got a little too focused on ron's reply.

    Whilst the play-offs can be intriguing, I always feel at the end of it a bit 'empty' because if the side finishing third doesn't go up then I feel they're robbed, and if they do go up I feel it was a wasted exercise.

    I do wonder how much of the contention at the top is down to loans.

    Key loanees at the top? (total apps)

    Newcastle (32 apps) - Atsu 30 apps (Chelsea)
    Brighton (32 apps) - Pocognolli 17 apps (WBA), Akpom 8 apps (Arsenal), Tomori 7 apps (Chelsea)
    Huddersfield (133 apps) - Kachunga 34 apps (FC Ingolstadt 04), Mooy 33 apps (Man City), Ward 31 apps (Liverpool), Palmer 26 apps (Chelsea), Brown 9 apps (Chelsea)
    Reading (24 apps) - Mutch 9 apps (C Palace), Oxford 4 apps (West Ham), Grabban 11 apps (Bournemouth)
    Leeds (174 apps) - Bartley 45 apps (Swansea), Sacko 38 apps (Sporting CP), Grimes 12 apps (Swansea), Hernandez 33 apps (Al-Arabi), Jansson 32 apps (Torino), Meadows n/a (Roma), Pedraza 9 apps (Villareal), Barrow 5 apps (Swansea)

    Huddersfield definitely benefitting from taking a player they might not otherwise have been able to afford, on the flip side I have to question the benefit of Premier League (or other top league) clubs loaning a player down to the Championship who doesn't play much. Huddersfield you have to question where they'd be without their loanees, their top scorer is Kachunga with 10 goals, they have 11 goals from other loanees (can't be bothered to try and find out assists), and have our keeper in goal so 21 goals when they've scored only 50 in the league and 60 overall is a fair contribution and their loanees rank 1st, 3rd and joint 4th in the top scorers stakes. Maybe that's the difference between this season and last:

    15/16 Huddersfield 19th (51 points from 46 games, GD -11)
    16/17 Huddersfield 3rd (74 points from 40 games, GD +4 )

    Quite a turnaround, not unheard of if you look at Leicester 14/15 vs 15/16, but their only loanee was Dyer who made some impact but not a massive one (1 goal in 14 apps, the goal and all 12 league apps off the bench)
    Yeah, Huddersfield and Leeds seem to have benefited from the loan system massively. Bartley and Jansson have formed quite a strong backbone for Leeds this season. Only Newcastle and Brighton have conceded less goals.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarknessIsCalling View Post
    Sorry, forgot to say thank you as I got a little too focused on ron's reply.

    Whilst the play-offs can be intriguing, I always feel at the end of it a bit 'empty' because if the side finishing third doesn't go up then I feel they're robbed, and if they do go up I feel it was a wasted exercise.

    I do wonder how much of the contention at the top is down to loans.

    Key loanees at the top? (total apps)

    Newcastle (32 apps) - Atsu 30 apps (Chelsea)
    Brighton (32 apps) - Pocognolli 17 apps (WBA), Akpom 8 apps (Arsenal), Tomori 7 apps (Chelsea)
    Huddersfield (133 apps) - Kachunga 34 apps (FC Ingolstadt 04), Mooy 33 apps (Man City), Ward 31 apps (Liverpool), Palmer 26 apps (Chelsea), Brown 9 apps (Chelsea)
    Reading (24 apps) - Mutch 9 apps (C Palace), Oxford 4 apps (West Ham), Grabban 11 apps (Bournemouth)
    Leeds (174 apps) - Bartley 45 apps (Swansea), Sacko 38 apps (Sporting CP), Grimes 12 apps (Swansea), Hernandez 33 apps (Al-Arabi), Jansson 32 apps (Torino), Meadows n/a (Roma), Pedraza 9 apps (Villareal), Barrow 5 apps (Swansea)

    Huddersfield definitely benefitting from taking a player they might not otherwise have been able to afford, on the flip side I have to question the benefit of Premier League (or other top league) clubs loaning a player down to the Championship who doesn't play much. Huddersfield you have to question where they'd be without their loanees, their top scorer is Kachunga with 10 goals, they have 11 goals from other loanees (can't be bothered to try and find out assists), and have our keeper in goal so 21 goals when they've scored only 50 in the league and 60 overall is a fair contribution and their loanees rank 1st, 3rd and joint 4th in the top scorers stakes. Maybe that's the difference between this season and last:

    15/16 Huddersfield 19th (51 points from 46 games, GD -11)
    16/17 Huddersfield 3rd (74 points from 40 games, GD +4 )

    Quite a turnaround, not unheard of if you look at Leicester 14/15 vs 15/16, but their only loanee was Dyer who made some impact but not a massive one (1 goal in 14 apps, the goal and all 12 league apps off the bench)
    I've mentioned this before, and many disagreed...

    The system I'd prefer to see would be.

    Automatic relegation for 19th and 20th PL... automatic promotion for 1st and 2nd Championship.

    18th PL and 3rd Championship then play a two-leg decider. It gives the 18th a last-gasp chance to stay up, and gives the 3rd one more crack at it.

    It might be supposed that 18th would beat 3rd more often than not.... but I think a side that has managed to claw up to 3rd in a hard league might well do the job over a side that was unable to get out of the bottom of the PL.
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  30. #90  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    I've mentioned this before, and many disagreed...

    The system I'd prefer to see would be.

    Automatic relegation for 19th and 20th PL... automatic promotion for 1st and 2nd Championship.

    18th PL and 3rd Championship then play a two-leg decider. It gives the 18th a last-gasp chance to stay up, and gives the 3rd one more crack at it.

    It might be supposed that 18th would beat 3rd more often than not.... but I think a side that has managed to claw up to 3rd in a hard league might well do the job over a side that was unable to get out of the bottom of the PL.
    You mean like SPL do? (I think) How about bottom two go up/down, next two (so 17th and 18th in Premier League, 3rd and 4th in Championship) play for two places in the Premier League....? I really don't see why finishing SIXTH in the second tier, so arguably TWENTY SIXTH best team in England, deserves a shot at promotion. That's finishing top quarter of the second tier, to be fair to all it shouldn't happen, including them since the chances of being ready for the top flight if you finish only sixth must be relatively slim (not impossible, sure it's been done and people say it is a hard league to get out of, but still)
    People will believe what they want to believe
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