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Thread: General Election 2017...The Aftermath.

  1. #61  
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelYNWA View Post
    they've just announced the Queens speech has been cancelled.
    Thank you for the information just read the BBC page and notice it doesn't come risk free. But understandable that for the first year we make sure the country is ready for post brexit including the great repeal bill and the arguments about what sort of brexit the vote implies as it can be argued that 82% voted for two parties that were stating they want access to and not membership of the single market. However, 40% were also voting for a party campaigning on an anti austerity message.
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    I do for the following reasons.

    1. The Queen's speech will be written in such a way that the DUP will not vote against it and all Tories will vote for it.
    2. The Brown effect: every Tory knows there are serious issues with May campaigning in the election. However, I don't think they are willing to have a short career as PM.
    3. As well as Theresa's campaigning went. However, underestimating the youth vote and not red teaming the manifesto before its launch also had an impact on the result. So lessons will be learned and not repeated.
    4. Unless there is a vote of confidence in the government or the fixed term Parliament act the next election will be 2022. As I don't see permission will be sought to call an early election.

    I can see May lasting to potentially late 2018 early 2019. Beyond that it is anyone's guess.
    I doubt that very much indeed, she'll soon turn into a patsy such is the in house pressure on her, and once that happens its a case of when in terms of being disposed of, which is far more likely to be sooner rather than later.

    I hope she goes much much sooner, she is woefully bad quite clearly and has only got worse somehow since the election results, with her turning to a DUP coalition, increasing messes around the DUP deal, the whole spectre of Brexit negotiations where she's not perceived well at all by voters or the EU itself.

    Her lack of ability to handle such tragic losses and very difficult and distressing situations in the UK currently, London of course and Manchester, some of which represents inadvertently class divisions etc with her flatly doing the robot routine and repeating strong and stable, getting on with the job etc is not what people need to hear at this time.

    She's replaced strong and stable soundbites with 'getting on with the job' soundbites. She is toxic for the Government, her party, a gift for the opposition but far more importantly disliked more and more by those filthy pesky voters with their opinions.

    You'd be a brave man to bet on late 2018 early 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    Thank you for the information just read the BBC page and notice it doesn't come risk free. But understandable that for the first year we make sure the country is ready for post brexit including the great repeal bill and the arguments about what sort of brexit the vote implies as it can be argued that 82% voted for two parties that were stating they want access to and not membership of the single market. However, 40% were also voting for a party campaigning on an anti austerity message.
    I voted Labour because I believe and trust my local MP., but i sure as **** didn't vote for Brexit and I have no doubt that goes for a lot of people.
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    It baffles me how people hear things or read things and just believe it to be 100% truth and will never change their mind. The whole "the top 5% will just get out the country" is one of the worst arguments I've ever heard. Where are they going to move to? Places across Europe such as Germany or France who have higher corporation tax than Corbyn plans to increase it to. Out of the G20 we have the 2nd lowest corporation tax whilst we have things such as food banks and an NHS and police crisis. But no matter what you tell people with this view, they'll just deny facts and then start going on about immigration or for some bizzare reason, Corbyn and the IRA.
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    dreams-come-true is online now First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by S_7 View Post
    It baffles me how people hear things or read things and just believe it to be 100% truth and will never change their mind. The whole "the top 5% will just get out the country" is one of the worst arguments I've ever heard. Where are they going to move to? Places across Europe such as Germany or France who have higher corporation tax than Corbyn plans to increase it to. Out of the G20 we have the 2nd lowest corporation tax whilst we have things such as food banks and an NHS and police crisis. But no matter what you tell people with this view, they'll just deny facts and then start going on about immigration or for some bizzare reason, Corbyn and the IRA.
    This argument that Capital will flee is bunkum. For the reasons which you mentioned. The market for many is in the UK. And their trading partners across the globe as well as Europe. Scare stories just in case they need to pay a bit more tax.
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    GrottonRed is online now LFC Forums Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelYNWA View Post
    I voted Labour because I believe and trust my local MP., but i sure as **** didn't vote for Brexit and I have no doubt that goes for a lot of people.
    A friend of mine spends all his time on facebook moaning about the pension age getting later, immigrants being used as an excuse for undercutting wages and the state of the NHS and lack of public services.

    He voted Tory as he says you can't trust Labour to run the country...

    Life President of TEPS...The Ellipsis Preservation Society.
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    The anniversary of the battle of Waterloo today

    Surprised that the labourites haven't been on proclaiming it was of their greatest achievements
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  8. #68  
    dreams-come-true is online now First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    A friend of mine spends all his time on facebook moaning about the pension age getting later, immigrants being used as an excuse for undercutting wages and the state of the NHS and lack of public services.

    He voted Tory as he says you can't trust Labour to run the country...

    No accounting for some opinions. He also knows how the NHS was formed? And that we had boom years under Labour too? I dont know how some people base their opinions. It is up to them. But there is much history out there which people should get to know. And no, you wont get that with the normal mainstream media outlets. You need to look things up. You need to be interested enough to do it. And yes, there are many who can not be bothered. Unfortunately. Hard to argue against them. Why isn't life so black and white ... like "easier" to understand?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    The anniversary of the battle of Waterloo today

    Surprised that the labourites haven't been on proclaiming it was of their greatest achievements
    meanwhile the Tories are reliving the Charge of the Light Brigade.
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    Tory head office council tells May she has 10 days to sort herself out and save the premiership....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Tory head office council tells May she has 10 days to sort herself out and save the premiership....
    Yeah, just saw that. 'Shape up or ship out.'
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Tory head office council tells May she has 10 days to sort herself out and save the premiership....
    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    Yeah, just saw that. 'Shape up or ship out.'
    Any links to this news gents?
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    Coach791 is offline First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    Although in terms of cuts - London fire brigade were still able to quickly increase the Grenfell fire to a 45 pump incident by the original site commander quickly assessing he is ill equipped to deal with the towering inferno so puts a call in that he needs back up ASAP.

    That included a rotation on the crews attending. Was 45 the right number I don't know but if it is above the optimum level then the resources available after the emergency call shouldn't be a factor. Yes there are issues that do need to be explored specifically dealing with the Grenfell tower but that is for another thread.
    There are models of predictability or certainty. Newton's Laws, mathematical principles you can find many examples of systems of prediction and certainty. Scientists and mathematicians love these but engineers often find themselves using models of probability. There are simply too many variables to predict a certain outcome.

    It's interesting to see which models are used when discussing government. Take the Grenfell tragedy. Could that fire have been predicted? Absolutely not. Too many variables. We couldn't have known when a fire would start, we didn't know cladding was unsafe (though some potentially did) and we couldn't have known that building hadn't been inspected, that when the fire started the man became terrified and ran there are just too many variables.

    Think of weather prediction. The more variables the less accurate you predictions. The weather in an hour is easier to predict than the weather in a week. What the government will do is order a public enquiry. It likely won't have any powers but it will examine in such a way that it will be along the principles of certainty (like a judge in a court case with a jury). The government know that in an incident with such variables there are two ways you can absolve yourself of responsibility.

    The first is the in ability to predict. We couldn't have known. Then will come the systematical failures (which essentially absolves the government and the people in government and blames the system). I notice that's similar to your focus about pumps, maximum resources, minor technicalities focused on trying to absolve responsibility through precision and looking for one 'smoking gun' that won't be there or to establish how unpredictable the fire was.

    It was unpredictable if you're assessing using models of certainty. However switch that to a system of probability. The government handed out a contract to Rydon, which is part owned by HBOS, which is 73% owned by government. That company receiving a government contract, part owned by government then installed what looks like could be illegal cladding that contributed significantly to the tragedy.

    The government cut safety checks and fire service budgets they could have a) preventing the illegal cladding going up b) assisted a better response in the event of the tragedy.

    When assessing probability this kind of horrific governance was always going to contribute to a tragedy and they are no doubt culpable. It isn't even in dispute when you consider their actions that on the basis of probability they contributed significantly to the tragedy.

    They will also flip between certainty and probability. For example you will need certainty in the public enquiry which isn't possible. However most likely there will be somebody to take the 'fall' where assisted by the media somebody to blame will emerge. Often referred to as the fall guy.

    You imitate many of the political figures that frustrate the population with your response (I presume not intentionally) but when you talk about the tragedy you're very specific, certain if you like. You mention a '45 pump incident' being declared by 'site commander' and it is very specific.

    Then you ask a question that isn't anything like the important question. Was 45 the right call? What that does is almost direct questions of certainty specifically to the site commander or whoever makes those decisions and away from the major contributing factors. You talk about optimum levels and this is all in regards to the fire service and their response.

    The problem is nobody is blaming the fire service. The fact they were operating at maximum resources doesn't matter. You're attempting to take the focus in the wrong direction. I don't know if that's because you have respect for politicians and imitate or simply think they should be protected.

    However you make some assessments. Despite the cuts London Fire Service were still able to arrive quickly. Again a typical government tactic of apportioning importance to a non quantifiable term. Quickly doesn't mean anything. It's just a word to describe something.

    Could the fire brigade have reacted quicker and better with more resources? If so they government cuts have to be a factor. If there was the possibility building inspections could have picked up the dangers had there been more of them then cuts were a factor. If the building was encased with dangerous cladding and government approved that then this is a factor. If the government owns part of the company that it awarded the contract to that put up the illegal cladding then that is beyond compelling they bear significant responsibility.

    It's really interesting your posting style. You try and define the debate in the terms you wish it to be defined in. When you factor in all variables and look at probability then there is no other conclusion that the government playing a significant role in this tragedy.

    The interesting thing in terms of the tragedy happening just after the election is the difference between hypothetical and real dangers. The Conservative government are consistent at creating hypothetical dangers to control people. Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser, Labour spends more, austerity is needed (all of these are absolutely baseless and fictional) and yet right after the election a very real threat from government cuts, governments doing dodgy deals, cutting safety checks, fire service budgets, putting up illegal cladding those have been demonstrated to be actually real.

    I think that's part of the anger. Many people have seen through the Conservative lies. They are lies you can absolutely demonstrate that. However the real dangers are now also evident. I find it compelling when you post because it's so similar to the politicians we see on the TV speaking. The only thing is I understand why Conservatives say what they say in government but I don't understand why you do it. That's not a criticism but it could be you idolise some political figures or that you enjoy being able to manipulate debate in the same way.

    Are you studying politics Paul or have you wanted to?
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    Europe used to be frightened of the tory party - not the case these days not just the tories are limp, labour and the PC brigade have taken the fight out of most....
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1152330.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    Any links to this news gents?
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3567506.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    Any links to this news gents?
    Several sources reporting the same line; here's one

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3567506.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by diddlerdave View Post
    several sources reporting the same line; here's one

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3567506.html
    snap!
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    snap!
    Great minds and all that mate
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Great minds and all that mate
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    This is exactly why this is all about politics.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...arebar_twitter
    Before that towering inferno stopped us all in our tracks we were talking about vellum.

    Yes, vellum. The goatskin parchment on which the Queen’s Speech has to be written, which takes days for ink to dry on it, and was supposedly stopping the State Opening Of Parliament.

    Like men in tights with black rods, us British have to do things just right when it comes to making our law. It’s tradition. It’s what sets us apart from the riff-raff.

    As for the laws themselves, well, they’re secondary, really. Take last year’s Homes (Fitness for Human Habitation) Bill, proposed by Labour, which may have stopped the Grenfell Tower inferno had the government voted for it. But Tory MPs voted it down, 72 of whom were landlords who would have been out of pocket through all the extra nanny state interference.

    One of them, Philip Davies, argued it would put “a huge burden on landlords” who are “an easy target for the Left in this country”. They certainly are now, Phil. But not for the Right, who believe landlords (in many cases them) should be free to make as much rent as they want without being bogged down by all that expensive red tape.

    Not that the Right is totally against state intervention in housing. Ask Jacob Rees-Mogg ’s in-laws, whose ancestral pile, the 365-room Wentworth Woodhouse, was given a 7.6million restoration grant last year. The same Rees-Mogg who repeatedly voted for the Bedroom Tax, which punished people with one extra room.

    Oh yes, the Establishment can always find that Magic Money Tree when it suits them. Which is why we’re spending 369m
    refurbishing 775-room Buckingham Palace to make it fit for one family, but can’t find the 200,000 to put sprinklers in flats a stone’s throw away, where 600 people lived, literally on top of each other.

    The Tory media loves to bang on how “elf ’n’ safety” has gone mad and red tape is a needless burden on business. Some have even maliciously tried to blame the Grenfell blaze on EU regulations, despite the killer cladding being banned in Germany because it’s deemed flammable.

    But not here, where since Thatcher’s time we’ve been cutting corners to aid private profiteers.

    Many on the Right hail Brexit as a golden opportunity to throw all of the EU’s overbearing rules and regulations on a bonfire. Oh, the irony of that phrase, when we look at the heartbreaking inferno in London.

    During the election campaign, Theresa May told us she wanted to lead a government that would rule for ALL the country.

    Long-time Tory-watchers laughed out loud, knowing they never have and they never will. Grenfell Tower is a big, ugly, smoking symbol of the Tory’s callous lies. A symbol made even uglier by news that May’s chief of staff Gavin Barwell, sat on a report as housing minister , which warned that such tower blocks were vulnerable to deadly fires.

    He didn’t care, just as the local Tory council and his Government didn’t care. Because all they cared about was cutting council budgets, fire brigade budgets, social housing budgets, safe in the knowledge that if the worst happened, it wouldn’t be their family left devastated, but the powerless ones at the bottom who don’t count.

    Still, next week the vellum will be ready and ancient pomp and circumstance will take over Westminster as Her Majesty reads out May’s self-serving agenda, leaving many of those landlord Tory MPs teary-eyed with patriotism.

    But they’ll never shed enough tears to wash the blood off their hands.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Europe used to be frightened of the tory party - not the case these days not just the tories are limp, labour and the PC brigade have taken the fight out of most....
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1152330.html
    Ron that is a mad post my friend, seems very confused, fear of the Tories a good thing & your mourning that loss (imagined or otherwise) & who are the PC brigade exactly?
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    Several sources reporting the same line; here's one

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3567506.html
    Cheers!
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    Cheers!
    It's a service we provide.

    hahahaha
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiddlerDave View Post
    It's a service we provide.

    hahahaha
    Hehehe -
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  25. #85  
    Coach791 is offline First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelYNWA View Post
    This is exactly why this is all about politics.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...arebar_twitter
    Absolutely spot on. Posters who think budgets and austerity are an actual economic policy should be able to see they are not. You can find 700m to pay two private companies to assess PIP but try and cut disability payments by a similar amount. That's not making cuts that's redirecting resources from people to private.

    If you can find 7.6 million to restore a wealthy families home and 369m refurbishing Buckingham Palace how can anybody argue this is about budgets. The bank bailout was immense and that money was plucked from nowhere. Now if you understand the system you know money can be created for anything.

    Conservative deception is a mask that is slipping away. Not a single Conservative I have every met has been able to defend or even disclose the basis for their policies. None of them have ever bother to even investigate.
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    Ron that is a mad post my friend, seems very confused, fear of the Tories a good thing & your mourning that loss (imagined or otherwise) & who are the PC brigade exactly?
    The art of persuasion and negotiation are a must - if you want to be the cornerstone of leading the world then you have to offer something to follow -

    We did

    Today - whether its the tories, the labour, the UKIP, the National Front or the people in general - Most of Europe and the world laughs at us

    Coz we offer little and nothing

    The PC brigade
    http://www.politicallyincorrect.me.uk/dogooders.htm
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  27. #87  
    dreams-come-true is online now First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    The art of persuasion and negotiation are a must - if you want to be the cornerstone of leading the world then you have to offer something to follow -

    We did

    Today - whether its the tories, the labour, the UKIP, the National Front or the people in general - Most of Europe and the world laughs at us

    Coz we offer little and nothing

    The PC brigade
    http://www.politicallyincorrect.me.uk/dogooders.htm
    Please specify what exactly the UK has to offer or had.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    The art of persuasion and negotiation are a must - if you want to be the cornerstone of leading the world then you have to offer something to follow -

    We did

    Today - whether its the tories, the labour, the UKIP, the National Front or the people in general - Most of Europe and the world laughs at us

    Coz we offer little and nothing

    The PC brigade
    http://www.politicallyincorrect.me.uk/dogooders.htm
    The real dangerous ones are those paid with sandwicheS
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreams-come-true View Post
    Please specify what exactly the UK has to offer or had.
    Hahahaha - clearly you missed history class then - sorry no I bet you are one of those people that see's it as a huge embarrassment - not a stepping stone to today
    Then nothing I say will help you understand
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Hahahaha - clearly you missed history class then - sorry no I bet you are one of those people that see's it as a huge embarrassment - not a stepping stone to today
    Then nothing I say will help you understand
    That's not an answer
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