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Thread: Brexit...Deal or No Deal?

  1. #1381  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luises-Finger View Post
    WTO. The bottom line. Rules are well defined therefore more accurately modelled. Anyone interested in dealing with reality would impact assess WTO.
    That may be a difficult prospect as well due to the rules regarding "most favoured nation".

    This is where under WTO rules the lowest tariff rate for one member will be the tariff rate for all members.

    The exceptions are where there is a customs union, a free trade area or for developing nations who could receive preferential rates.

    So dependent on how the negotiations are concluded may not just effect UK/EU trade but has implications for the UK/RotW trade.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    Yes...it has.

    The only things to be held back were information sensitive to the negotiations and certain commercially sensitive information given in confidence by companies.

    The Brexit committee accepted those criteria were right and proper.
    No it hasn't, it's done A assessment but forgot to include all the major financial implications & this has been kept aside by Davis. Commercial information is not the issue

    It's a mess GR, clearly, the general uproar is not because people are all dim as dookar so nicely put it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDREAMOFGINI View Post
    Only way to get a Union built is by having the people who live there to talk to the people who live on the other side of a border. A Westminster PM and an EU negotiator won't solve anything. They'll get money, a nice wage, a healthy breakfast but they still ignore the people who live at the border.

    EU being very stubborn over nothing
    Eire unwilling to talk to Stormont parties and let the EU to negotiate for them.
    I presume you haven't read properly what the problem is. If the EU was being stubborn then they would insist there would have to be a customs border there to control the goods coming in and out because that's what the problem is, movement of people can be as easy or difficult as the UK and Ireland want to make it. Ireland and the UK would control that border, no the EU.
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    How do we think everyone would react if someone else come into power and tried to reverse Brexit with another referendum? Could that even legally be done? How do we think the country would vote?
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    Quote Originally Posted by S_7 View Post
    How do we think everyone would react if someone else come into power and tried to reverse Brexit with another referendum? Could that even legally be done? How do we think the country would vote?
    What would be illegal about that? Whichever way it goes it would be close again = to a lot of angry people. I donít think there is a way back now, in 15-20 years time when most of the Brexiteers would be senile or dead and the UK has smelt the coffee, may be. Thatís the most likely scenario anyway.
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  6. #1386  
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    Quote Originally Posted by S_7 View Post
    How do we think everyone would react if someone else come into power and tried to reverse Brexit with another referendum? Could that even legally be done? How do we think the country would vote?
    Apparently it was written in that we could drop out at any point of the process. Given what we know now (i.e. we know more then we did at the vote but still are in the dark on important details) I think the vote would swing personally. Some people voted for reasons which are clear now cant be implemented and the horror show we are seeing at the moment would probably activate a portion of the other (short of a) 1/3 of the population that didn't vote at all.

    I think recent polling is showing the same.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eloader View Post
    Apparently it was written in that we could drop out at any point of the process. Given what we know now (i.e. we know more then we did at the vote but still are in the dark on important details) I think the vote would swing personally. Some people voted for reasons which are clear now cant be implemented and the horror show we are seeing at the moment would probably activate a portion of the other (short of a) 1/3 of the population that didn't vote at all.

    I think recent polling is showing the same.
    What the latest polls say on this? The problem with referendums like this is that unless there is significant gap (60-40 for example) the losing party would always be reluctant to accept the result and would want a rerun of the referendum.
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  8. #1388  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eloader View Post
    Apparently it was written in that we could drop out at any point of the process. Given what we know now (i.e. we know more then we did at the vote but still are in the dark on important details) I think the vote would swing personally. Some people voted for reasons which are clear now cant be implemented and the horror show we are seeing at the moment would probably activate a portion of the other (short of a) 1/3 of the population that didn't vote at all.

    I think recent polling is showing the same.
    Even the Lib Dems are saying there is little evidence through polls or otherwise, that people have changed their minds about which way they voted.

    As for Labour reversing the vote...there is little chance of that.

    Their leadership are no fans of the EU and they'd just use Brexit to blame any future difficulties on the tories.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alon1 View Post
    What the latest polls say on this? The problem with referendums like this is that unless there is significant gap (60-40 for example) the losing party would always be reluctant to accept the result and would want a rerun of the referendum.
    It was here I read it.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/second-bre...101105637.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    Even the Lib Dems are saying there is little evidence through polls or otherwise, that people have changed their minds about which way they voted.

    As for Labour reversing the vote...there is little chance of that.

    Their leadership are no fans of the EU and they'd just use Brexit to blame any future difficulties on the tories.
    Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

    My business partner voted leave primarily because he voted against joining in the first place and has been bitter about it since. Imagine his thoughts if we ran a 2nd vote to approve the deal and that failed. He'd be livid
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    No it hasn't, it's done A assessment but forgot to include all the major financial implications & this has been kept aside by Davis. Commercial information is not the issue

    It's a mess GR, clearly, the general uproar is not because people are all dim as dookar so nicely put it.
    except I didn't
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alon1 View Post
    I presume you haven't read properly what the problem is. If the EU was being stubborn then they would insist there would have to be a customs border there to control the goods coming in and out because that's what the problem is, movement of people can be as easy or difficult as the UK and Ireland want to make it. Ireland and the UK would control that border, no the EU.
    The UK and Ireland aren't signed up to the Schengen Agreement. They're in the Common Travel Area so there's no real need for anyone in the Common Travel Area to spread fear about an Irish border. Europe seems to be using it to learn how to deal with its Eastern front. Places like Crimea and Ukraine. A lot of fuss about nothing really.
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDREAMOFGINI View Post
    The UK and Ireland aren't signed up to the Schengen Agreement. They're in the Common Travel Area so there's no real need for anyone in the Common Travel Area to spread fear about an Irish border. Europe seems to be using it to learn how to deal with its Eastern front. Places like Crimea and Ukraine. A lot of fuss about nothing really.
    It really isn't
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    Schultz says he wants a new treaty, effectively forming a United States of Europe. Countries unwilling to sign will be expelled.

    Thank God we're leaving.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    I'm assuming people complaining about the impact assessment thing are either dim or just want to have a pop at either the concept of Brexit or the Government.

    The most cursory glance at the most scant evidence and the best and worst, plus those in between, become self evident.
    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    except I didn't
    If you think this, you either 'this or that', one of the options being dim.

    Narrow category that for a lot of people
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDREAMOFGINI View Post
    The UK and Ireland aren't signed up to the Schengen Agreement. They're in the Common Travel Area so there's no real need for anyone in the Common Travel Area to spread fear about an Irish border. Europe seems to be using it to learn how to deal with its Eastern front. Places like Crimea and Ukraine. A lot of fuss about nothing really.
    Do you understand what a customs border is?
    You seem to be very confused between people and goods transportation.

    I donít really know what Crimea has to do with anything here plus if you look in the map you would see the EU has no border with Crimea.
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    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...p-the-fanatics

    This every time. It is fanatics and ideologues who are running the country whether they be on the Tory benches or in the press. What the editorial fails to mention of course (is there an unwritten pact between members of the press?) is the massive massive influence of our daily press.

    My wife works with elderly people and a home she visits just orders the Mail and the Telegraph. My wife, bless her is arguing that it is only giving old people one side of the story, one slant and one view. I think that was the problem with the referendum..the British people were only hearing one view and it was all anti-EU.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alon1 View Post
    Do you understand what a customs border is?
    You seem to be very confused between people and goods transportation.
    The UK and the Irish government will sort this all out using technology and custom searches. Goods and services will be monitored when they leave and arrive from one country to the other. There'll still be smuggling and a threat of terrorisim but both countries will work together to crack down on it without a physical or maned border. Its not that difficult for both countries to work together when we are islands with close political and trade relations.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alon1 View Post
    I don’t really know what Crimea has to do with anything here plus if you look in the map you would see the EU has no border with Crimea.
    The large amount of smuggling, people trafficking and especially weapons into Europe, political corruption, etc. Crimea is used in the ongoing problems with Ukraine and Russia and the EU would want full control of it. There's no better place to learn how to deal with a difficult area near your region than from Ireland. Throw up the Irish border custom issue and you'll see how crazy things can escalate.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...p-the-fanatics

    This every time. It is fanatics and ideologues who are running the country whether they be on the Tory benches or in the press. What the editorial fails to mention of course (is there an unwritten pact between members of the press?) is the massive massive influence of our daily press.

    My wife works with elderly people and a home she visits just orders the Mail and the Telegraph. My wife, bless her is arguing that it is only giving old people one side of the story, one slant and one view. I think that was the problem with the referendum..the British people were only hearing one view and it was all anti-EU.
    That can be said on both sides. Besides the people residing in the home have the opportunity to watch the news as well. Oh wait that is MSM with all their biases showing.

    Just like this story from "the rw media organisation" as eluded to by dookar.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a8097356.html

    In terms of the single market and customs union. Didn't the EU and remain campaign bang on about we cannot have the current arrangement without accepting the four freedoms. Which brexiteers opposed due to it includes free movement of Labour.

    Also where has the europhile press been over the last 20+ years talking up the positives of membership? As that may have swayed some moderate brexiteers to switch their vote to remain in the EU.
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    If you think this, you either 'this or that', one of the options being dim.

    Narrow category that for a lot of people
    Right, I didn't say what you claim. Stop misrepresenting me
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    Quote Originally Posted by IDREAMOFGINI View Post
    The UK and the Irish government will sort this all out using technology and custom searches. Goods and services will be monitored when they leave and arrive from one country to the other. There'll still be smuggling and a threat of terrorisim but both countries will work together to crack down on it without a physical or maned border. Its not that difficult for both countries to work together when we are islands with close political and trade relations.


    The large amount of smuggling, people trafficking and especially weapons into Europe, political corruption, etc. Crimea is used in the ongoing problems with Ukraine and Russia and the EU would want full control of it. There's no better place to learn how to deal with a difficult area near your region than from Ireland. Throw up the Irish border custom issue and you'll see how crazy things can escalate.
    Well, it is a shame the Irish government is not so confident that is not going to happen, as it was their requirement to negotiate this, it was also the British government request to insert the controversial clause, the EU are merely overseeing this matter. I know you would like to blame the EU about this in some capacity but you would need to find something else.

    I have no idea what are you trying to say about Crimea to be honest, do you actually understand that they joined Russia 3 years ago? Is the EU trying to get full control of it? How?

    Are you okay? I mean how did you linked this with the situation in Northern Ireland? It is just bizarre.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    Schultz says he wants a new treaty, effectively forming a United States of Europe. Countries unwilling to sign will be expelled.

    Thank God we're leaving.
    We should have stayed and let them expel us...that smells of something..

    I often think brexit is such a bonus for most of the EU - it leaves the way clear for their new future and all they have to do is follow their convictions. Brexit aside, EU development will be fascinating (in a boring way).

    Anyway, norway type of option looking more likely by the day. I think they have left preparing for a no-deal scenario too late already.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    Schultz says he wants a new treaty, effectively forming a United States of Europe. Countries unwilling to sign will be expelled.

    Thank God we're leaving.
    That would end up with the united states of Germany, Spain and Greece
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    We should have stayed and let them expel us...that smells of something..

    I often think brexit is such a bonus for most of the EU - it leaves the way clear for their new future and all they have to do is follow their convictions. Brexit aside, EU development will be fascinating (in a boring way).

    Anyway, norway type of option looking more likely by the day. I think they have left preparing for a no-deal scenario too late already.
    I wouldn't trust our politicians not to sign up to it.

    EEA has been the only sane option from the beginning, I'm expecting our idiot government to realise that now that the political and economic realities are becoming apparent (to them)
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    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    Right, I didn't say what you claim. Stop misrepresenting me
    Come on, its a semantic of the same thing. You objected a fair bit, understandably, when the same type of line was leveled at leave voters.

    Anyways it not an intention to misrepresent

    Moving on......
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    Come on, its a semantic of the same thing. You objected a fair bit, understandably, when the same type of line was leveled at leave voters.

    Anyways it not an intention to misrepresent

    Moving on......
    Perhaps I should have been more clear, I was talking about our parliamentarians
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    That may be a difficult prospect as well due to the rules regarding "most favoured nation".

    This is where under WTO rules the lowest tariff rate for one member will be the tariff rate for all members.

    The exceptions are where there is a customs union, a free trade area or for developing nations who could receive preferential rates.

    So dependent on how the negotiations are concluded may not just effect UK/EU trade but has implications for the UK/RotW trade.
    My scenario assumes no EU trade deal. Hard brexit. That's well defined isn't it? It would give us our 'no deal' threshold.

    If these models were without value they wouldn't be created. But if Davies is saying the situation will be too extreme he could still feed in what you've got to the limit of its acceptable ranges. Then we have some knowledge as to whether the extreme will be better than some +ve limit or worse than some -ve limit.

    Not using every tool at your disposal is inexcusable imo.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    Schultz says he wants a new treaty, effectively forming a United States of Europe. Countries unwilling to sign will be expelled.

    Thank God we're leaving.
    We might get better terms if we were expelled. 50 billion better.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luises-Finger View Post
    We might get better terms if we were expelled. 50 billion better.
    Nope. That's money well spent
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    That can be said on both sides. Besides the people residing in the home have the opportunity to watch the news as well. Oh wait that is MSM with all their biases showing.

    Just like this story from "the rw media organisation" as eluded to by dookar.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a8097356.html

    In terms of the single market and customs union. Didn't the EU and remain campaign bang on about we cannot have the current arrangement without accepting the four freedoms. Which brexiteers opposed due to it includes free movement of Labour.

    Also where has the europhile press been over the last 20+ years talking up the positives of membership? As that may have swayed some moderate brexiteers to switch their vote to remain in the EU.
    Yes and I think i said just after the vote that the leave campaign would have to break one of 2 promises:

    Either they would allow free movement
    OR
    They would screw up the economy

    Appears they've gone for the latter.
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