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Thread: Brexit...Deal or No Deal?

  1. #871  
    BearWithMe is offline First team regular
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    I hope everyone is aware that this will be the case if we go with hard Brexit - https://www.ato.gov.au/Business/Luxury-car-tax/

    And before you say "it wont matter to me as I cant afford a luxury car anyway" Think again! The car industry will almost certainly relocate to countries inside the EU taking with it all the jobs. Brexit will, excuse the pun, crash the motor industry 100%.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BearWithMe View Post
    I hope everyone is aware that this will be the case if we go with hard Brexit - https://www.ato.gov.au/Business/Luxury-car-tax/

    And before you say "it wont matter to me as I cant afford a luxury car anyway" Think again! The car industry will almost certainly relocate to countries inside the EU taking with it all the jobs. Brexit will, excuse the pun, crash the motor industry 100%.
    Will it? That may be the case now for Australia. However, post Brexit we may have a deal with the Australians that reduces/removes that tariff on a quid pro quo basis.

    It may also be the case that the likes of BMW, VW & Tata are willing to keep the production in the UK due to it makes more business sense even with a tariff of importing a car into a country with a population of 24mn especially if China/India/the US think that Rolls Royce, Jaguar or Bentley is devalued if it is not stamped Made in the UK.
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    I think it is unfair to claim that they back tracked from the claim on the buses if it is related to Farage calling out the likes of Johnson, Gove and Stuart were not 100% accurate in terms of funding the NHS. This is because he was not part of their (the official) campaign for Brexit.

    In terms of WTO I don't believe any Tory see that as ideal. They are mainly saying that this is not the worse option. Along with the plan that the UK will look to make the WTO a freer trade organisation. They just don't want to agree to a deal that is considered to be punitive. E.g. unrelated to Brexit. However, Boeing may have had a massive own goal when they insisted that the likes of AA and Delta be charged a 300% tariff on Aircraft due to accusations of state aid for Bombardier by Canada and the UK. Airbus have recently announced that they have brought a 51% share in the relevant aircraft (C-series) so gain a good jet for regional airports without any development costs and being the first of the two companies to gain an aircraft of that type. Fallon had also stated that Boeing had better be wary of playing games as turn about is fair play. This statement may be significant due to the MoD had ordered 9 P-8 Poseidon Aircraft to reclaim the Nimrod capability.

    I agree that there does need to be a transition period as it will allow organisations on both sides of the channel/border to prepare for what post brexit actually looks like along with what should happen with those contracts that are placed pre brexit but run to beyond 29/03/19.

    They are likely to hiding things that we won't get to see that is not due to sinister/malicious reasons. That are things like the governments red lines, where there is some wriggle room. E.g. if we were to announce that we will be willing to accept a Brexit bill of up to 80bn. We may lose out on a saving of £xbn because the rEU would have no reason to negotiate to a Brexit bill beyond a level we agreed with.



    But would any of the other parties done any better?

    Would they have immediately guaranteed all EU citizens can remain here without any reciprocal arrangements and not appreciating the consequences if we went for status quo ante. Along with the risk that UK ex pats do not get any guarantees.

    would they have ignored the Brexit referendum or have a second referendum without defining the consequences of what "Yes the UK public want to leave" but "No the UK public do not accept the deal as provided"

    would they expect parliament to unpick every single act, law, etc that is directly or indirectly influenced by the EU whilst maintaining the level of one law can not be contradictory of another law.
    I think a party of corpses with their heads removed would do better yes, mainly because they aren't all fighting each other like this bunch who are and have used the Brexit charade as a stepping stone for their careers, only its gone horribly wrong of course

    That's why this whole thing started, and negotiations continue under the steaming stinking cloud of this appalling Tory government.

    May, Johnson, Gove and of course Davis....a party of slugs, a party of nothingness, a party called 'WEdo****ALL' would all do better I would think without doubt
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    BearWithMe is offline First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    Will it? That may be the case now for Australia. However, post Brexit we may have a deal with the Australians that reduces/removes that tariff on a quid pro quo basis.

    It may also be the case that the likes of BMW, VW & Tata are willing to keep the production in the UK due to it makes more business sense even with a tariff of importing a car into a country with a population of 24mn especially if China/India/the US think that Rolls Royce, Jaguar or Bentley is devalued if it is not stamped Made in the UK.
    Australians have to pay 33% tax on luxury car from say Germany and the UK, Audi's and the likes. We deal with each other now without the luxury Car tax but with Hard Brexit it's 99% certain we would see a tax of this like here on imported cars. There is already noises that Tata will be moving production from the UK even without hard Brexit. It will hit the German motor industry as well as because their sales will drop due to this tax. Even if the tax isn't as high as 33% it will still be high and still hit us hard.
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    GrottonRed is online now LFC Forums Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by BearWithMe View Post
    Australians have to pay 33% tax on luxury car from say Germany and the UK, Audi's and the likes. We deal with each other now without the luxury Car tax but with Hard Brexit it's 99% certain we would see a tax of this like here on imported cars. There is already noises that Tata will be moving production from the UK even without hard Brexit. It will hit the German motor industry as well as because their sales will drop due to this tax. Even if the tax isn't as high as 33% it will still be high and still hit us hard.
    Australia have this tax to protect their own car industry.

    The chances of us and Europe having these draconian measures is laughable...with or without a deal...no one would want it or gain by it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BearWithMe View Post
    Australians have to pay 33% tax on luxury car from say Germany and the UK, Audi's and the likes. We deal with each other now without the luxury Car tax but with Hard Brexit it's 99% certain we would see a tax of this like here on imported cars. There is already noises that Tata will be moving production from the UK even without hard Brexit. It will hit the German motor industry as well as because their sales will drop due to this tax. Even if the tax isn't as high as 33% it will still be high and still hit us hard.
    Speculation. You are assuming too many things and then summing up with "the entire car industry will pack up and leave". A hell of a lot of things have to play out before that eventuality occurs and for UK manufacturers it is the tax regimes of our exporting countries that matters but only after domestic consumption and the position of competitors is taken into account.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    Speculation. You are assuming too many things and then summing up with "the entire car industry will pack up and leave". A hell of a lot of things have to play out before that eventuality occurs and for UK manufacturers it is the tax regimes of our exporting countries that matters but only after domestic consumption and the position of competitors is taken into account.
    There is a decent sized plant locally that appears to be under threat.

    I am unsure as to if Brexit has any affect.

    Vauxhall Ellesmere Port.
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    Norway confirm they would not block the UK joining EFTA. They previously said they would not be too much in favour of it but WW2 was not that long ago that they can't deny their allies. Apparently EFTA court tried to woo the UK too and Iceland are campaigning pretty hard for the UK to join.
    Last edited by DantesShadow; 14-11-17 at 16:03. Reason: can should be can't!
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    Norway confirm they would not block the UK joining EFTA. They previously said they would not be too much in favour of it but WW2 was not that long ago that they can deny their allies. Apparently EFTA court tried to woo the UK too and Iceland are campaigning pretty hard for the UK to join.
    Aldi's and Lidil's however are not so sure
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    Quote Originally Posted by rhoscoch View Post
    There is a decent sized plant locally that appears to be under threat.

    I am unsure as to if Brexit has any affect.

    Vauxhall Ellesmere Port.
    Sure, I think similar affects every car plant, especially those that have been around a while. Sometimes they want more tax breaks, sometimes they find cheaper labour elsewhere (as many have done so by relocating to Eastern Europe - the single market works for others against the UK too).

    The worst thing the UK can do is lose these skills or education standards because then these jobs really will be lost for a long time
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    Aldi's and Lidil's however are not so sure

    yeah but this lot have a buy one get 5 free policy - works for brexit britain
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    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    Ridiculous waste of time
    I don't see how they can not have a vote. But a waste as the option will be whatever deal or no deal at all (can't exactly ask the EU to wait longer). Personally I am not sure the EU parliament will agree - they seem to be becoming loose canons.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    Speculation. You are assuming too many things and then summing up with "the entire car industry will pack up and leave". A hell of a lot of things have to play out before that eventuality occurs and for UK manufacturers it is the tax regimes of our exporting countries that matters but only after domestic consumption and the position of competitors is taken into account.
    Well that is precisely what British car component factories (one cannot call them car manufacturers) are saying. They are concerned about tariffs and the the car crash (excuse the pun) that would be a no deal. But then I get the feeling there are enough in the cabinet and the Tory press who are desperate for a no deal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    Sure, I think similar affects every car plant, especially those that have been around a while. Sometimes they want more tax breaks, sometimes they find cheaper labour elsewhere (as many have done so by relocating to Eastern Europe - the single market works for others against the UK too).

    The worst thing the UK can do is lose these skills or education standards because then these jobs really will be lost for a long time
    Tell that to the Tory right. They couldnt give a monkeys if those are lost for good. Doesnt worry them or their ilk.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    Tell that to the Tory right. They couldnt give a monkeys if those are lost for good. Doesnt worry them or their ilk.
    you're like a human spammer
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    Well that is precisely what British car component factories (one cannot call them car manufacturers) are saying. They are concerned about tariffs and the the car crash (excuse the pun) that would be a no deal. But then I get the feeling there are enough in the cabinet and the Tory press who are desperate for a no deal.
    What - I have heard this before - "there is no manufacturing"....example..."ok, but that's not 'real' manufacturing".

    Cars are assembled at every plant - nobody builds each component for each car individually. This dumbing down of anything the UK does regardless of what is done elsewhere and the constant comparisons to Germany are ridiculous. It does nothing for the debate. You know how many Germanys there are in the EU? Just one. It will stay that way - the UK cannot be a copy of Germany any more than any other EU country can - otherwise they would all do it.
    Last edited by DantesShadow; 14-11-17 at 16:49.
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  17. #887  
    dreams-come-true is online now First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    What - I have heard this before - "there is no manufacturing"....example..."ok, but that's not 'real' manufacturing".

    Cars are assembled at every plant - nobody builds each component for each car individually. This dumbing down of anything the UK does regardless of what is done elsewhere and the constant comparisons to Germany are ridiculous. It does nothing for the debate. You know how many Germanys there are in the EU? Just one. It will stay that way - the UK cannot be a copy of Germany any more than any other EU country can - otherwise they would all do it.
    No-one wants to be another Germany ... HOWEVER, their MIXED ECONOMY works well enough for them. The State holds massive chunks of the biggest corporations like RWE, VW, ... No. Not copy. But follow an example which has been shown to work. That is not copying or plagiarising. It is good sense.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    Sure, I think similar affects every car plant, especially those that have been around a while. Sometimes they want more tax breaks, sometimes they find cheaper labour elsewhere (as many have done so by relocating to Eastern Europe - the single market works for others against the UK too).

    The worst thing the UK can do is lose these skills or education standards because then these jobs really will be lost for a long time
    Like say, the shipyards?

    Not to worry all those highly skilled jobs in Sunderland were replaced by the mega call centers on Doxford Park.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    you're like a human spammer
    That point would seem to be born of historical accuracy though, see my previous post about Sunderlands shipyards being replaced with call centers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rhoscoch View Post
    Like say, the shipyards?

    Not to worry all those highly skilled jobs in Sunderland were replaced by the mega call centers on Doxford Park.
    But we still have shipbuilding in Barrow, Belfast and Glasgow amongst other places. We also have ship maintenance facilities in places like Portsmouth.

    Like a few other nations, a past UK government declared shipbuilding as a strategic industry so tries to ensure the skills are retained.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rhoscoch View Post
    Like say, the shipyards?

    Not to worry all those highly skilled jobs in Sunderland were replaced by the mega call centers on Doxford Park.
    I think we should have kept more shipyards. But unless of national importance (as Paul mentions) - whereby some can be protected, it is very very difficult to maintain some industries in the face of globalisation. The pound has been over-valued for a while which has not helped.

    Having a cross party long term strategy beyond political tenures is essential. DCT mentioned mixed economy and I agree with the spirit of that in that what you want to achieve with enough built in 'spread' would have been hugely beneficial.

    Hindsight is a thing - nobody worries about it until the unthinkable happens. It's the same in nature really - competitive advantage can be wiped out and you need mutations, even inferior ones to protect the species...i might be unclear here but I am sure you get my point!
    Last edited by DantesShadow; 14-11-17 at 20:34.
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    I think it is unfair to claim that they back tracked from the claim on the buses if it is related to Farage calling out the likes of Johnson, Gove and Stuart were not 100% accurate in terms of funding the NHS. This is because he was not part of their (the official) campaign for Brexit.

    In terms of WTO I don't believe any Tory see that as ideal. They are mainly saying that this is not the worse option. Along with the plan that the UK will look to make the WTO a freer trade organisation. They just don't want to agree to a deal that is considered to be punitive. E.g. unrelated to Brexit. However, Boeing may have had a massive own goal when they insisted that the likes of AA and Delta be charged a 300% tariff on Aircraft due to accusations of state aid for Bombardier by Canada and the UK. Airbus have recently announced that they have brought a 51% share in the relevant aircraft (C-series) so gain a good jet for regional airports without any development costs and being the first of the two companies to gain an aircraft of that type. Fallon had also stated that Boeing had better be wary of playing games as turn about is fair play. This statement may be significant due to the MoD had ordered 9 P-8 Poseidon Aircraft to reclaim the Nimrod capability.

    I agree that there does need to be a transition period as it will allow organisations on both sides of the channel/border to prepare for what post brexit actually looks like along with what should happen with those contracts that are placed pre brexit but run to beyond 29/03/19.

    They are likely to hiding things that we won't get to see that is not due to sinister/malicious reasons. That are things like the governments red lines, where there is some wriggle room. E.g. if we were to announce that we will be willing to accept a Brexit bill of up to 80bn. We may lose out on a saving of £xbn because the rEU would have no reason to negotiate to a Brexit bill beyond a level we agreed with..
    1st bold: In the general, Brexit is going to be a success. Negotiating a deal with the EU is going to be easy. etc., etc.

    Of all the benefits they (the brexit leadership, including Farage, Hannan and any others) promised, which ones do we look likely to get any time soon? The date we get the benefits seems now to be set a decade away. At this point I feel it is fair to claim backtracking. I'll reconsider as soon as some benefits become apparent.

    As for the rest, any deal we make with the EU must be punitive relative to the deal we have currently. The EU can not offer equivalent trading terms. So the only question is how bad could WTO get, because that gives us our ultimate red line. If the EU deal leaves us better off than that WTO red line then on paper we should take it. But it may not be good enough to be politically acceptable. The EU are just as capable of calculating that red line as we are. All this talk of keeping cards close to our chest, is frankly, nonsense imo. The same rule stands for the costs to the EU of our departure. The real negotiations are actually taking place now on the divorce costs. The more we pay, the less pain there will be for the EU. That's why some here want us to pay nothing, as it potentially strengthens our negotiating hand on trade. But doing that has other consequences. I believe all the red lines everywhere, are known.

    The real question for me, is how much financial pain are the EU prepared to accept and how much, with their larger market and presence, can they compensate for and absorb.

    I become intensely annoyed at those brexiters who glibly state the EU will not allow their industries to be harmed. This is coming from people who have done exactly that. They are allowing our industries and trade to be harmed for political 'gain'. But for some reason, it seems the EU aren't allowed to do the same. It's a risky gamble imo, to base our nations future success and wellbeing on that one card.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luises-Finger View Post
    1st bold: In the general, Brexit is going to be a success. Negotiating a deal with the EU is going to be easy. etc., etc.

    Of all the benefits they (the brexit leadership, including Farage, Hannan and any others) promised, which ones do we look likely to get any time soon? The date we get the benefits seems now to be set a decade away. At this point I feel it is fair to claim backtracking. I'll reconsider as soon as some benefits become apparent.

    As for the rest, any deal we make with the EU must be punitive relative to the deal we have currently. The EU can not offer equivalent trading terms. So the only question is how bad could WTO get, because that gives us our ultimate red line. If the EU deal leaves us better off than that WTO red line then on paper we should take it. But it may not be good enough to be politically acceptable. The EU are just as capable of calculating that red line as we are. All this talk of keeping cards close to our chest, is frankly, nonsense imo. The same rule stands for the costs to the EU of our departure. The real negotiations are actually taking place now on the divorce costs. The more we pay, the less pain there will be for the EU. That's why some here want us to pay nothing, as it potentially strengthens our negotiating hand on trade. But doing that has other consequences. I believe all the red lines everywhere, are known.

    The real question for me, is how much financial pain are the EU prepared to accept and how much, with their larger market and presence, can they compensate for and absorb.

    I become intensely annoyed at those brexiters who glibly state the EU will not allow their industries to be harmed. This is coming from people who have done exactly that. They are allowing our industries and trade to be harmed for political 'gain'. But for some reason, it seems the EU aren't allowed to do the same. It's a risky gamble imo, to base our nations future success and wellbeing on that one card.
    You do know there is a difference between a less favourable and punitive deal?

    The public were warned consistently that there will be changes and either accepted that it was inevitable or saw an n some areas opportunities like change the agricultural and fisheries policies to meet our needs. Some may even have thought that without the shackles of consensus diplomacy there are areas that can be improved on.

    E.g. the working time directive means we can not work longer than 44 hours a week or the required specifications of equipment becomes more stringent as the government knows it is achievable. If that is in areas that the UK excels at or where no trade barriers exist as a rule or by exception then the EU will still trade with us.

    A punitive deal will be Davis just accepting all demands given to him including ceding crown dependencies and overseas territories (even if they want to retain their British passports), British territorial waters become 12m from the coast (that is metres not miles), the English channel becomes the sleeve, we have to fund a mission to the moon to carve in letters big enough to read with the naked eye "the EU is great and we made a mistake, lose our status as a p5, only get associate membership of the WTO, are banned from European competition for the next 10 years and bidding from bidding for any sporting event for the next 200 years and by 2040 all British citizens must not speak English.

    Additionally based on these meetings, any industry these two desire will be forced out of the UK.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP_l5aPww-4
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  24. #894  
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    You do know there is a difference between a less favourable and punitive deal?

    The public were warned consistently that there will be changes and either accepted that it was inevitable or saw an n some areas opportunities like change the agricultural and fisheries policies to meet our needs. Some may even have thought that without the shackles of consensus diplomacy there are areas that can be improved on.

    E.g. the working time directive means we can not work longer than 44 hours a week or the required specifications of equipment becomes more stringent as the government knows it is achievable. If that is in areas that the UK excels at or where no trade barriers exist as a rule or by exception then the EU will still trade with us.

    A punitive deal will be Davis just accepting all demands given to him including ceding crown dependencies and overseas territories (even if they want to retain their British passports), British territorial waters become 12m from the coast (that is metres not miles), the English channel becomes the sleeve, we have to fund a mission to the moon to carve in letters big enough to read with the naked eye "the EU is great and we made a mistake, lose our status as a p5, only get associate membership of the WTO, are banned from European competition for the next 10 years and bidding from bidding for any sporting event for the next 200 years and by 2040 all British citizens must not speak English.

    Additionally based on these meetings, any industry these two desire will be forced out of the UK.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP_l5aPww-4
    Of course. In for me, in for me, ...they've all got it in for me. I dont think people can imagine what a hard Brexit would be like. In truth. The other big financial centre is Frankfurt. It might really be the case that many operations get moved. But the Financial Sector doesn't contribute that much to the well-being of the country. Meanwhile, due to further Austerity measures, ... privatisation of the NHS ... the Ghost of Maggies past carries on its free market policies. But dont let that stop you.
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    These are the people the British electorate (or those who voted Leave) have handed control to:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ney-britain-eu

    John Redwood advising investors to take their money out of Britain.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    Australia have this tax to protect their own car industry.

    The chances of us and Europe having these draconian measures is laughable...with or without a deal...no one would want it or gain by it.
    Laughable? not according to Forbes - https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp.../#5d38785b3e0e

    The rumours are (from top dogs in Jag Liverpool) depending on the level of the tax post Brexit will depend on weather Tata stays in the UK and car industry here survives.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BearWithMe View Post
    Laughable? not according to Forbes - https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp.../#5d38785b3e0e

    The rumours are (from top dogs in Jag Liverpool) depending on the level of the tax post Brexit will depend on weather Tata stays in the UK and car industry here survives.
    It's total bs.

    The Germans aren't going to agree to tariffs that damage their car industry...and even if they did, we'd match that and use that money to give tax breaks to our car industry.

    As I said...it's laughable.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BearWithMe View Post
    Laughable? not according to Forbes - https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp.../#5d38785b3e0e

    The rumours are (from top dogs in Jag Liverpool) depending on the level of the tax post Brexit will depend on weather Tata stays in the UK and car industry here survives.
    That article is full of omissions (such as domestic sales and growth markets) and the source seems no more in touch than the everyday person. Using 'rumours' to back it up hardly helps. PS - it is not according to forbes but the 'sole' views of a contributor.

    To add some facts to the picture: JLR sales are up. An increase in sales mainly for China (up 65.3%), the UK (up 3.8%), Europe (up 3.7%) and North America (up 3.2%) with difficult conditions in markets like Brazil and Russia. They have already opened a factory in Slovakia (pre Brexit) and if they move manufacturing anywhere it will be to China (brexit or no brexit).

    Brexit WILL have an impact but we need to keep balanced or it's just more misinformation that can be used on both sides.
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    I find myself quite supporting the 'mutineers' - not because i agree with them but this is quite bully boy tactics from an ill advised collusion between heavy brexiters and their favoured press. Some of them like Clarke and Soubry have never been shy about their views in the first place.

    I am sure televised sources will more than likely balance it out, so it will never work, but OTT rhetoric.
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    But we still have shipbuilding in Barrow, Belfast and Glasgow amongst other places. We also have ship maintenance facilities in places like Portsmouth.

    Like a few other nations, a past UK government declared shipbuilding as a strategic industry so tries to ensure the skills are retained.
    Oh that is all good for the people of Sunderland then, isn't it.

    You appear to have absolutely no clue whatsoever as to the magnitude of the shipbuilding industry that once existed in Sunderland (We are not talking one major yard like Lairds in Birkenhead the loss of which was catastrophic enough losing skills that have never been replaced).

    More than 20000 men once worked in the Sunderland shipyards. A lot of them skilled. Let that sink in. 20,000. The skills all lost. Gone. Sold down the river. An Island nation. Laughable. But still, like I said, about 15,000 now work in the call centers at Doxford International Business Park (Ironically seemingly named after one of the famous yards...William Doxford & Sons?)

    A little clip of the sort of ships Sunderland used to churn out...literally. Known as Mackems because boy when it came to ships could they Mack 'Em (Make Them). Proper ships mind, not boats...

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/...lding-12298730

    All gone.

    As for Barrow...BAE systems is it? Feeding off the nuclear teat? Do me a favour.
    Last edited by rhoscoch; 15-11-17 at 12:52.
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