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Thread: Brexit...Deal or No Deal?

  1. #1 Default Brexit...Deal or No Deal? 
    GrottonRed is online now LFC Forums Moderator
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    After the much publicised speech by Theresa May...is a deal more or less likely?
    Life President of TEPS...The Ellipsis Preservation Society.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    After the much publicised speech by Theresa May...is a deal more or less likely?
    No deal is not an option, never had been.

    Her speech told us nothing, we have all the same questions we had yesterday
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    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    No deal is not an option, never had been.

    Her speech told us nothing, we have all the same questions we had yesterday
    Although we did have confirmation that a May Brexit will include a transition period of 2 years at current arrangements. Along with we will continue to pay our share of the EU budget for that period.

    Now, that should reduce the alleged 60bn exit bill that we are obligated to pay according to some due to it will be paid in instalments.

    Even Michel Barnier has stated it is a significant step forward.

    May also said when it comes to security, rEU will have a strong friend in the UK Govt. Although for most that will be expected due to the ongoing commitments with NATO.

    Is it fully there for the Europeans I am not sure for the majority and probably not for the federalists. However, it could be argued that the ball is in their court now. To see if we have made significant progress so future EU/UK relations can start to be considered to be discussed, suggest it is not far enough yet or even state that we have to make it all the way across the divide to their side and take their original position.
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    The most interesting thing will be trade movements and tariffs, a return to the old system of duty tariffs on overseas imports from Europe could complicate everything and the requirement to customs clear cargo prior to delivery would inevitably cause delays and potential chaos in the supply chain it would be a step back into the dark ages, add into that thousands of UK companies going through or having gone through complex AEO applications and HMRC vetting for the benefit of compliance and advantages in smoother customs movements there's a shed load of stuff up in the air that's for sure.
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    One of the unknowns which i think is fascinating to ponder is what would her speech have said if she'd won a big maj at the election. Make no mistake there would have been no soothing words, no reaching out to Europe, no talk of shared interests. It would have been a bellicose speech much more confrontational.

    Even with her maj wiped out today's speech still had one audience in her sights, that of the Tory party and the Tory press which has effectively, along with Ukip set the agenda on Europe for the last 4 years. Sad but true.

    I think there was v little detail and Id be surprised if the wafer thin unity shown by the Tories in the last 24hrs will hold. So much flesh to put on the bones-tariffs/N.Ireland-Ireland border/in 2021 are we then out of Single Market and CU? As for the Tory press they will offer supportive headlines tomorrow but be very clear, their sympathies are entirely with the Johnson/Rees-Mogg wing of the Tory party.
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    The price of brexit is beginning to be put on the table for public consumption. That's a great thing imo. We can't move forward till reality is seen and accepted. May can stop playing this stupid game of 'won't tell anyone anything' because of negotiations. The country needs to know.

    There can't be a coming together until there's acceptance by the rank and file leavers, that the price, in part or whole, that the remainers talked of was always going to be paid; will have to be paid, if we're to leave in some kind of planned, orderly fashion.

    Sooner we get to the final cost, the better. There' no need for leavers to have their vote over-ridden or ignored. Democracy is far too important. We can and should continue with exit. But there should be no more unsubstantiated declarations from the rank and file leavers, that it isn't going to be or shouldn't be painful or the fact that it will be painful, is somehow the remainers fault.

    Leavers knew what they desired. They went out and fulfilled that desire. Good for them.

    Everything always comes at a price.
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    The EU would get whatever they want in this negotiation, it is like a poker game between a world champion and a rockie that still can't tell the difference between Omaha and Texas hold'em.
    Last edited by Alon1; 23-9-17 at 08:33.
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    Although we did have confirmation that a May Brexit will include a transition period of 2 years at current arrangements. Along with we will continue to pay our share of the EU budget for that period.

    Now, that should reduce the alleged 60bn exit bill that we are obligated to pay according to some due to it will be paid in instalments.
    We already knew that, following the Lancaster House speech, other than maybe the duration. And 2 years is nowhere near long enough.

    Even Michel Barnier has stated it is a significant step forward.
    He's also said it needs to be translated into a coherent negotiation position. We're just kicking the can down the road.

    May also said when it comes to security, rEU will have a strong friend in the UK Govt. Although for most that will be expected due to the ongoing commitments with NATO.

    Is it fully there for the Europeans I am not sure for the majority and probably not for the federalists. However, it could be argued that the ball is in their court now. To see if we have made significant progress so future EU/UK relations can start to be considered to be discussed, suggest it is not far enough yet or even state that we have to make it all the way across the divide to their side and take their original position.
    Absolutely not.

    Quote Originally Posted by aylesbyred View Post
    The most interesting thing will be trade movements and tariffs, a return to the old system of duty tariffs on overseas imports from Europe could complicate everything and the requirement to customs clear cargo prior to delivery would inevitably cause delays and potential chaos in the supply chain it would be a step back into the dark ages, add into that thousands of UK companies going through or having gone through complex AEO applications and HMRC vetting for the benefit of compliance and advantages in smoother customs movements there's a shed load of stuff up in the air that's for sure.
    This is precisely why 2 years is too little
    Quote Originally Posted by Luises-Finger View Post
    The price of brexit is beginning to be put on the table for public consumption. That's a great thing imo. We can't move forward till reality is seen and accepted. May can stop playing this stupid game of 'won't tell anyone anything' because of negotiations. The country needs to know.

    There can't be a coming together until there's acceptance by the rank and file leavers, that the price, in part or whole, that the remainers talked of was always going to be paid; will have to be paid, if we're to leave in some kind of planned, orderly fashion.

    Sooner we get to the final cost, the better. There' no need for leavers to have their vote over-ridden or ignored. Democracy is far too important. We can and should continue with exit. But there should be no more unsubstantiated declarations from the rank and file leavers, that it isn't going to be or shouldn't be painful or the fact that it will be painful, is somehow the remainers fault.

    Leavers knew what they desired. They went out and fulfilled that desire. Good for them.

    Everything always comes at a price.
    I assume you mean the financial settlement when you say 'cost'. If so, you're being absurd. It was we leavers who were talking about the RAL prior to the referendum, everyone else slowly caught up after they realised they'd lost


    ------

    Bottom line is we're screwed, not one single politician has demonstrated an understanding of the issues at hand. The PM, today. repeated the lie about the 'Norway option' they're all *********** stupid. The only remaining hope is that that speech sounded suspiciously like the machinations of Whitehall, those guys understand what's happening and they don't want to leave. We're going to need 5+ years, probably closer to 10, to properly leave the EU and the only way we can realistically do that is EFTA/EEA, just like we said prior to the referendum. This is all on the remainers, the 'kippers and the idiots we have ruling over us
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    From the thread title can I assume Noel Edmunds is taking over discussions and it will be a long drawn out neverending pile of you know what.............?
    Last edited by TheDarknessIsCalling; 26-9-17 at 13:34. Reason: don't avoid swear flter
    People will believe what they want to believe
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    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    We already knew that, following the Lancaster House speech, other than maybe the duration. And 2 years is nowhere near long enough.



    He's also said it needs to be translated into a coherent negotiation position. We're just kicking the can down the road.



    Absolutely not.



    This is precisely why 2 years is too little


    I assume you mean the financial settlement when you say 'cost'. If so, you're being absurd. It was we leavers who were talking about the RAL prior to the referendum, everyone else slowly caught up after they realised they'd lost


    ------

    Bottom line is we're screwed, not one single politician has demonstrated an understanding of the issues at hand. The PM, today. repeated the lie about the 'Norway option' they're all *********** stupid. The only remaining hope is that that speech sounded suspiciously like the machinations of Whitehall, those guys understand what's happening and they don't want to leave. We're going to need 5+ years, probably closer to 10, to properly leave the EU and the only way we can realistically do that is EFTA/EEA, just like we said prior to the referendum. This is all on the remainers, the 'kippers and the idiots we have ruling over us
    The cost of brexit involves more than RAL. It will have socio-economic consequences. Leavers have calculated vary little correctly so far. How could they. No plan.

    So no I don't mean the financial settlement. I mean any losses due to socio-economic change. The full cost. Like the impact of credit rating changes as well. Rank and file and some leaders were talking bout how rubbish project fear was. It was all going to be just peachy.

    Fear was too big and too urgent. I said, we'd need 12 months before we began to see the impact. It might be more like 12 months after article 50 was submitted. Although the impact in the immediate drop in the pound may ultimately work against us. Depends how much we need to import rather than export.

    The 5+ years is likely. I agree. The more orderly the withdrawal the better.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luises-Finger View Post
    The cost of brexit involves more than RAL. It will have socio-economic consequences. Leavers have calculated vary little correctly so far. How could they. No plan.

    So no I don't mean the financial settlement. I mean any losses due to socio-economic change. The full cost. Like the impact of credit rating changes as well. Rank and file and some leaders were talking bout how rubbish project fear was. It was all going to be just peachy.

    Fear was too big and too urgent. I said, we'd need 12 months before we began to see the impact. It might be more like 12 months after article 50 was submitted. Although the impact in the immediate drop in the pound may ultimately work against us. Depends how much we need to import rather than export.

    The 5+ years is likely. I agree. The more orderly the withdrawal the better.
    Okay, understood. You're right, there will be costs and they're going to be catastrophic. Our exports are going to be greatly diminished. But you're wrong in saying we didn't know this, that's precisely why sensible leavers have always called for a staged exit, we voted to leave the EU not for Tory incompetence.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dookar View Post
    Okay, understood. You're right, there will be costs and they're going to be catastrophic. Our exports are going to be greatly diminished. But you're wrong in saying we didn't know this, that's precisely why sensible leavers have always called for a staged exit, we voted to leave the EU not for Tory incompetence.
    At least you recognised the risk and made your decision in that context.

    I think the issue now is bringing leavers who believed what they were told, (that it would all be peachy,) up to date with reality. And that's whether its hard exit or something else. We need to be ready for what might come.
    Last edited by Luises-Finger; 23-9-17 at 20:18.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarknessIsCalling View Post
    From the thread title can I assume Noel Edmunds is taking over discussions and it will be a long drawn out neverending pile .............?
    At this point I would let " the banker " handle the negotiations, for sure.
    Last edited by GrottonRed; 24-9-17 at 11:34. Reason: quote edited
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    Very good piece by Will Hutton (he of "The State We're In and of the Resolution Foundation):

    Remainers are too reasonable. One emollient speech from our beleaguered prime minister making concessions to reality that have been obviously necessary ever since the 2016 referendum is depicted as a breakthrough. A “cliff edge” has been averted, trills a leading business lobby group. This overture deserves a fair hearing: prepare for a new partnership with Europe, opines a leading pro-EU newspaper, its bite suddenly muzzled. And more of the same.

    Mrs May may have moved, but she remains firmly lashed to the Big Lies that underpin Brexit, propagated by the obsessed right of her party. There is no “opportunity”, as they endlessly repeat, in leaving the EU: the trade deals that allegedly will more than compensate for what Britain is losing do not exist. Brexit is a monumental, self-inflicted wound, delivered by the attempt to build an imagined Thatcherite utopia and “global Britain” that are undeliverable fantasies. Mrs May’s concessions to realism have yet to recognise this.

    For the EU is not the cause of all our ills – from training to infrastructure – as the deluded and vainglorious foreign secretary argued in his 4,000-word paean to Brexit a week ago. Brussels is not strangling Britain with a mountain of red tape, immigration-provoked poverty and emasculating the NHS. Britain’s failings are all minted at home by the very philosophy the Brexiters champion. To rupture our relationship with our largest trading partner and the continent that shares our values based on such epic lies can lead nowhere but bitter division. Britain’s long-run vitality, and the integrity of public argument, requires that truth be spoken to rightwing power, however awesome, bullying and fearsome it is.

    So, yes, Mrs May did argue for a stand-still transition of about two years after article 50 expires, so 60-mile queues on the Kent motorway system and potential shortages of key parts, foodstuffs and medicines may be temporarily avoided. And, yes, Britain will continue to make its budgetary contributions and accept the entire EU framework, even though it will no longer be represented in the European commission, the European council and the European parliament. The EU’s magnificent four freedoms will continue. EU citizens living in Britain will have their rights entrenched by treaty. Britain will have lost control and gained zero.

    Nor will it gain anything down the line. Britain will lose and have less control; this is why the pound fell and Moody’s downgraded Britain’s credit rating. The deep relationship with the EU that Mrs May urges to be “creatively” constructed – a continuation of the cake-and-eat-it approach Britain has sought and partly achieved as an EU member – cannot be done outside it. The fantastical proposition is kept alive to try to stop her party openly splitting. The truth that will painfully emerge in the months ahead is that Brexit can only happen on terms the Brexit right want, with years of lost trade, diminished opportunity and fading influence. There is no creative middle way.

    Europe cannot agree any form of privileged British access to its markets – even if we agree to follow every EU rule although no longer shaping them – while simultaneously allowing Britain to strike trade deals with the Anglo-American and Bric economies, the only ones that can begin to compensate for what we are losing. Britain would become a funnel for those economies to access the EU on the same privileged terms and for Europe to funnel goods and services back. It would mark the end of the single market and customs union, make a mockery of the EU’s global trade relationships and render it purposeless. It cannot happen. Britain has to choose: Europe or the rest of the world.

    On this choice, there is a brute reality. The obstacle in international trade is not tariffs – it is the non-tariff barriers to trade, especially in services, where Britain is strong. The Chinese, Indians, Indonesians, Americans and even the Australians and New Zealanders are very good at keeping unwanted foreign providers of goods and services out of their economies with a string of laws, regulations and protocols that dwarf anything the EU has in place.

    Free-trade agreements (FTAs) that Brexiters think are so easy rarely extend to non-tariff barriers, especially in services, which is why economists of all persuasions (except Professor Patrick Minford) forecast zero growth in Britain’s trade in services with the rest of the world – even with FTAs; and very little growth in goods. But trade in both with the EU will plummet. The consensus, fairly represented by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, is that we will end up with roughly £100bn less trade in services and £100bn less in goods, a decade-long economic depressant.

    But we will have control over our borders, retort the Brexiters. Will we? India has made it clear that there is no trade deal, even excluding non-tariff barriers, without a vast extension in immigrant visas. So will other putative trade partners. Britain will have swapped the chance of partially controlling its borders with agreement with the EU for no control whatsoever. Immigrant inflows will balloon, even as trade shrinks. Only Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, and their know-nothing Thatcherite followers could engineer such a debacle.

    But we must all, it’s said, get behind Brexit to respect the will of the 52%. No, we don’t. First, the 52% had no idea they were voting for stagnation, little or no let-up in immigration, less control, and decline. Second, democracy is about debate, deliberation and ongoing accountability and voting, not genuflecting for all time before one snapshot of opinion on one day in June 2016 whatever happens subsequently. That’s why democracies govern themselves with parliaments, capable of reversing mistakes and throwing out those that make them.

    On one issue the Brexiters are right. Britain now has to choose what country it wants to be. One only loyal to the union flag, attempting to intensify the Thatcherite programme that has so weakened not just the economy and public services but the cohesion of the country? Or one that wants to build a 21st-century economy and society, actively deploying government, with loyalties to both the British and EU flags, around values that, as Mrs May acknowledged in Florence, we share with Europe?

    Unlike Mr Johnson, I like the EU flag and what it stands for: it makes the union flag, when flown alongside it, stand for more generosity, nobility and openness than it can alone. I don’t want our flag co-opted so that any criticism of an act of economic and political vandalism is depicted as unpatriotic. I want, like many millions of others, to claim both flags as representing who I am. There is no middle way. The honest choice, even if it splits the Tories, is to leave the EU or stay. We can and must stay.
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    LovelyCushionedHeader is online now Academy prospect
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    I voted remain, but I must say so far Brexit has been a clear success and has been executed flawlessly.
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    I think may is back tracking. so much for hard brexit.....paying the eu off.

    I hear farage is making a come back. hope so because we need him to sort these so called brexit negotiating wimps out
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    I think may is back tracking. so much for hard brexit.....paying the eu off.

    I hear farage is making a come back. hope so because we need him to sort these so called brexit negotiating wimps out


    Yea more racist bull crap is just what we need.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrDilkington View Post


    Yea more racist bull crap is just what we need.
    but farage is creating a new party if that anti muslim woman wins the ukip leadership race....hmmmmmm
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    Farage is full of it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrDilkington View Post
    Farage is full of it.
    he deserves a knighthood
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    I think may is back tracking. so much for hard brexit.....paying the eu off.

    I hear farage is making a come back. hope so because we need him to sort these so called brexit negotiating wimps out
    Oh my god an outed Farage supporter. Farage the guy who says Goldman Sachs have too much power but has policies that gives rich businesses even more.
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    but farage is creating a new party if that anti muslim woman wins the ukip leadership race....hmmmmmm
    Clever Nigel. He knows how to manipulate. Anyone seriously think he is not Anti-Muslim? Do you?
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrDilkington View Post


    Yea more racist bull crap is just what we need.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    Oh my god an outed Farage supporter. Farage the guy who says Goldman Sachs have too much power but has policies that gives rich businesses even more.
    outed? never been "inned". farage is excellent and has always spoken for millions of fed up british people.
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    outed? never been "inned". farage is excellent and has always spoken for millions of fed up british people.
    He's a clueless moron who should be starved of the oxygen of publicity.

    Or just oxygen
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    Quote Originally Posted by LovelyCushionedHeader View Post
    I voted remain, but I must say so far Brexit has been a clear success and has been executed flawlessly.


    Same here, at first I was unhappy but the whole brexit process has been a laughing joke. Hoping we come to our senses and ditch the idea.
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    Brexit won't happen.

    2022 will come around and we'll still be in the EU, thankfully.
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    Quote Originally Posted by LovelyCushionedHeader View Post
    I voted remain, but I must say so far Brexit has been a clear success and has been executed flawlessly.


    Its still a good idea, its still a good idea, it is, its a good idea, it still is a good idea

    Hope that helps mate

    That is a sneak preview of May's next big speech
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    he deserves a knighthood
    Hopefully he gets one and they lob his head off with the sword.
    Last edited by LovelyCushionedHeader; 26-9-17 at 14:17.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    Clever Nigel. He knows how to manipulate. Anyone seriously think he is not Anti-Muslim? Do you?
    He knows his target market or demographic
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