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Thread: Brexit...Deal or No Deal?

  1. #481  
    GrottonRed is online now LFC Forums Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    Yes if Brexit collapses, it won't be because of how appallingly its been handled to date and the fact that leave is not what most people thought it meant, it'll be because some 'wimps' on a Liverpool forum expressed an opinion
    You'd think ST would be happy with negotiations.

    All the signs are we'll be leaving, with no deal and no transition on April 1st 2019.
    Life President of TEPS...The Ellipsis Preservation Society.
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  2. #482  
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    With people like you posting such negative scaremongering..is it any wonder negotiations aren't going well?
    Anyone in the Eu reading this sort of tripe will think we are a bunch of wimps
    Yeah Janno...it's your fault that negotiations aren't going well.
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    Quote Originally Posted by welshypool View Post
    Yes if Brexit collapses, it won't be because of how appallingly its been handled to date and the fact that leave is not what most people thought it meant, it'll be because some 'wimps' on a Liverpool forum expressed an opinion
    leave means leave. we didnt vote to part leave. cameron tried to get us a better deal and the eu ignored him.
    so leave meant to leave completely.
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    The EU is trying to negotiate with people who dont want to negotiate.

    The Tory right and their mates in the press WANT a NO DEAL. That is what they want. They are obsessives.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    The EU is trying to negotiate with people who dont want to negotiate.

    The Tory right and their mates in the press WANT a NO DEAL. That is what they want. They are obsessives.
    It's the Eu who won't negotiate.both sides are after ad much as they can get......which is understandable.why our own people want us to blink first and give in is beyond me
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    Apparently one sticking point is the divorce bill even though the PM offered that the UK will pay 20Bn.

    I am also not sure if that takes into account any programme e.g. Erasmus and Euratom for which we wish to retain our membership with the appropriate annual membership fee.

    Negotiations are about trying to arrive at the mutually least worst acceptable position. Not starting at the red lines and refuse to budge an inch.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    You'd think ST would be happy with negotiations.

    All the signs are we'll be leaving, with no deal and no transition on April 1st 2019.
    You'd think aye, no accounting for taste I guess
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    You'd think ST would be happy with negotiations.

    All the signs are we'll be leaving, with no deal and no transition on April 1st 2019.
    I fear not. I think there are a lot on the far right who actually crave a "No Deal" situation. They'd love it.
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  9. #489  
    TheSoundLady is offline Optimistic Poster of the Season 2013-14
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    Nobody convinced me to vote brexit. I decided all by myself I've seen how the UK has changed since the 70s. It's certainly not changed for the better.

    Time to get out and build our country back into a success.
    Settle down Trump.

    Seriously though, nobody that is manipulated into thinking foreigners are responsible for the ills of the 1%... or that the EU is responsible for the ills of the very rich British power brokers and corporations... actually thinks they are manipulated.

    The thing is that the ruling class in Britain is to blame for the problems you cite, which themselves are wildly exaggerated and mainly only exist in the paper we don't mention, and the Daily Mail, and under the web of lies created by Murdoch and such.

    So the very fact that you blame those ills on the EU and the immigrants and the *fill in blank* rather than on the very people that seek to control us all by dividing us and conquering us so effectively, shows that you - through no real fault of your own - have fallen for what the powers that be want you to believe.

    The only people to blame for any of the ills that irk you (if they do exist, and many are fabricated by the media), are the people that are pulling the strings behind trying to convince us that immigrants and the EU and the socialists and the (you name it) are the causes for these problems. Rather than capitalism, the ruling class, and the corrupt power brokers. The real problem.
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  10. #490  
    dreams-come-true is online now First team regular
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    Jonathan Pie ... be warned, swear words in the youtube... dont watch if you are easily offended by such language ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMz_SHidVfk
    Last edited by dreams-come-true; 17-10-17 at 09:17.
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    WT Flip? Anyone seen 490 billion?

    "equivalent to 25 per cent of GDP".

    Never mind eh!

    Fake news. Just more left wing 'experts' I'm sure. Boris, Govey, Deadwood and Moggy will sort it. It'll turn up.
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    Last edited by GrottonRed; 17-10-17 at 09:37. Reason: general nationality based insult
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luises-Finger View Post
    WT Flip? Anyone seen 490 billion?

    "equivalent to 25 per cent of GDP".

    Never mind eh!

    Fake news. Just more left wing 'experts' I'm sure. Boris, Govey, Deadwood and Moggy will sort it. It'll turn up.
    Have you checked at the back of your sofa

    In seriousness though some of the difference could be explained by ForEx fluctuations as well as miscounting or understanding the numbers better.
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    Have you checked at the back of your sofa

    In seriousness though some of the difference could be explained by ForEx fluctuations as well as miscounting or understanding the numbers better.
    Had a look. Not there I'm afraid.

    According to the Daily Express article, it's a sudden fall in the sales of national gilts and bonds. i.e. a fall in foreign investment, which then has knock on effects. Don't know if Forex has an additional impact on that.
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    Just read a large part of the government document "Preparing for our future UK trade policy". 40 pages. Could of been done in 10. Lots of repetition.

    This is the first semblance of a plan. More a strategy for hard exit, than a plan really. But given the circumstances, not a bad strategy amidst the Mom and apple pie bits.

    So, reading between the lines ...

    1/ Encourage and work with the WTO to reduce WTO tariffs to 0%. EU tariff benefits disappear under those circumstances.
    2/ Cut special deals with the EU where it can - cars say. 0% on German cars in exchange for other 0% tariffs on UK products and produce.
    3/ Build up poorer nations prosperity by buying cheap produce of one kind, so they can exchange that prosperity for UK goods in the future.

    There's all sorts of other ******** in the document that is just future land-fill and a lot of dependence on unknown future events. But at least, finally, we've got an attempt to move forward with something that has a modicum of sense.
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  16. #496  
    dreams-come-true is online now First team regular
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    Could have all been done and dusted at the beginning, 483 days ago ... https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...zens-annotated
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    Quote Originally Posted by ghyllred View Post
    I fear not. I think there are a lot on the far right who actually crave a "No Deal" situation. They'd love it.
    Whats the far right got to do with it?
    If the Eu want to rip us off and refuse to be fair about this then we must have the guts to walk away.
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  18. #498  
    dreams-come-true is online now First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    Whats the far right got to do with it?
    If the Eu want to rip us off and refuse to be fair about this then we must have the guts to walk away.
    You do not describe the meaning of "fair". Please do ... for your own sakes if not for anyone elses.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreams-come-true View Post
    You do not describe the meaning of "fair". Please do ... for your own sakes if not for anyone elses.
    As I not a member of the Eu parliament I'm not in that position.
    As I see it....we are members of a club who dared to leave and the eu don't like it.
    If we owe money to pay for commitments we made then fair enough......but it looks like the Eu want to punish us with excessive charges. And if they succeed it will put other Eu member countries off thinking of leaving.
    So if our negotiators don't think it's a fair deal.....then I hope we walk away
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  20. #500  
    dreams-come-true is online now First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    As I not a member of the Eu parliament I'm not in that position.
    As I see it....we are members of a club who dared to leave and the eu don't like it.
    If we owe money to pay for commitments we made then fair enough......but it looks like the Eu want to punish us with excessive charges. And if they succeed it will put other Eu member countries off thinking of leaving.
    So if our negotiators don't think it's a fair deal.....then I hope we walk away
    Was interested in what you mean by fair ... as you had used the term in the post I answered. Not whether the negotiators find it fair or not. As with many comments, you use very emotive words which you do not elaborate on. Which means it is difficult to know what the heck you are saying. May be it is just me.
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    Interesting words by Yanis Varoufakis on the whole negotiation thing. In short, he is questioning the whole EU negotiation in this, saying they don't want to actually negotiate and have no mandate to do so. It is all a game the EU plays to in the end get what is wants and implies it is the will of all EU member states and the whole sequencing is purely a tactic that has no basis in reaching a deal. He says the UK is better off leaving now without negotiations though that would be extremely damaging to the UK it would be better than the humiliation the EU is trying to put the UK though now.

    The best option (beyond staying) he believes is for a Norway style agreement fixed for 5 years, which eases the whole thing for business and above all, kicks the ball into Merkel and May's successors courts and allows them to talk more productively.

    His views on what was happening across the EU: Spain, France, Germany, Austria was also a little worrying for the European project and the rise of far right hate groups. You don't have to like the guy, but he does have a lot of experience on fractious relationships with the EU. His view has merits - walking away without a del is hugely damaging but getting no deal, after giving up everything and having made no preparations and having no time for preparations is a lot worse.

    I dont; know if his Norway option for 5 years meant replication or jointing EFTA etc
    Last edited by DantesShadow; 20-10-17 at 12:59.
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  22. #502  
    dreams-come-true is online now First team regular
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    Interesting words by Yanis Varoufakis on the whole negotiation thing. In short, he is questioning the whole EU negotiation in this, saying they don't want to actually negotiate and have no mandate to do so. It is all a game the EU plays to in the end get what is wants and implies it is the will of all EU member states and the whole sequencing is purely a tactic that has no basis in reaching a deal. He says the UK is better off leaving now without negotiations though that would be extremely damaging to the UK it would be better than the humiliation the EU is trying to put the UK though now.

    The best option (beyond staying) he believes is for a Norway style agreement fixed for 5 years, which eases the whole thing for business and above all, kicks the ball into Merkel and May's successors courts and allows them to talk more productively.

    His views on what was happening across the EU: Spain, France, Germany, Austria was also a little worrying for the European project and the rise of far right hate groups. You don't have to like the guy, but he does have a lot of experience on fractious relationships with the EU. His view has merits - walking away without a del is hugely damaging but getting no deal, after giving up everything and having made no preparations and having no time for preparations is a lot worse.

    I dont; know if his Norway option for 5 years meant replication or jointing EFTA etc
    Greece had a big problem ... it had done nothing to its own economy ... no investments in anything which would earn Greece more than the few bits of salad it grows to get export money. This will be the problem Britain will have. The only party with a plan to invest in the future of the country, the UK, is Corbyn and Labour. And if there is a hard Brexit, then something like this will be badly needed. Money doesn't grow on trees, but 1 and half billion to the DUP didn't grow on trees neither. A development bank will be created to help the small businessmen who have found it so difficult to borrow from the banks.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreams-come-true View Post
    Was interested in what you mean by fair ... as you had used the term in the post I answered. Not whether the negotiators find it fair or not. As with many comments, you use very emotive words which you do not elaborate on. Which means it is difficult to know what the heck you are saying. May be it is just me.
    Personally, I think a fair deal is something that is mutually beneficial and both parties are happy to accept the deal.

    From the outset the negotiating teams would have likely to have an initial position, an understanding of their red lines and what they are prepared to concede.

    For most successful negotiations there is likely to be some level of where both sides will be content to agree with and that will be the basis of the agreement. So one side does not feel like it has been screwed especially if the other side wants to repeat the business/maintain a level of good will.

    However, if one side tries to maintain the position at their original position it may build resentment in the other team, so the other side will not look at repeating the deal or move to a situation where a deal will no longer be required especially if there are alternate arrangements.
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    Quote Originally Posted by seasonedtraveller View Post
    As I not a member of the Eu parliament I'm not in that position.
    As I see it....we are members of a club who dared to leave and the eu don't like it.
    If we owe money to pay for commitments we made then fair enough......but it looks like the Eu want to punish us with excessive charges. And if they succeed it will put other Eu member countries off thinking of leaving.
    So if our negotiators don't think it's a fair deal.....then I hope we walk away
    How do you know? Where's your information come from?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luises-Finger View Post
    How do you know? Where's your information come from?
    There is no evidence either way.

    What I know is that it appears that we have offered 20bn and they want at least 60bn for our divorce bill with that being practically agreed upon (along with significant progress on the Irish Question and EU/UK Citizens) before negotiations start on the post Brexit status of the current agreements.

    There is also the issue that there may be a circular argument happening within the negotiations regarding the exit bill.

    Where an agreement probably cannot be made on the final cost of the divorce bill until we have an agreement on what elements of the EU/EEA we wish to retain (e.g. ERASMUS/Euratom). As we would expect to make subscription payments dues to being a member of those elements.

    However, we cannot start to negotiate about which parts we wish to retain our membership until we make significant progress on the final cost for the divorce bill.
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  26. #506  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    Interesting words by Yanis Varoufakis on the whole negotiation thing. In short, he is questioning the whole EU negotiation in this, saying they don't want to actually negotiate and have no mandate to do so. It is all a game the EU plays to in the end get what is wants and implies it is the will of all EU member states and the whole sequencing is purely a tactic that has no basis in reaching a deal. He says the UK is better off leaving now without negotiations though that would be extremely damaging to the UK it would be better than the humiliation the EU is trying to put the UK though now.

    The best option (beyond staying) he believes is for a Norway style agreement fixed for 5 years, which eases the whole thing for business and above all, kicks the ball into Merkel and May's successors courts and allows them to talk more productively.

    His views on what was happening across the EU: Spain, France, Germany, Austria was also a little worrying for the European project and the rise of far right hate groups. You don't have to like the guy, but he does have a lot of experience on fractious relationships with the EU. His view has merits - walking away without a del is hugely damaging but getting no deal, after giving up everything and having made no preparations and having no time for preparations is a lot worse.

    I dont; know if his Norway option for 5 years meant replication or jointing EFTA etc
    Putting your competitor under time or resource pressure is a standard commercial negotiations tactic. One they can play, but we can't. At least not without a detailed plan B (i.e. no deal WTO) ready to roll. So they'll probably do that.

    YV has predicted that the EU would negotiate about having negotiations as far back as 2016. He's been through the mill. He knows their tactics. In the case of Greece, they needed his nation to be a financial pivot point to help reflate EU banks. Money goes to Greece, then comes back from Greece. But the Greeks carry the debt. Greece was needed to play a particular role at that point in time, to keep the EU stable. Greece looked in the abyss - and caved in. Don't blame them. Tough decision.

    I believe the UKs role is different. We have more of an economy that can be traded with. They just want to make as much money from that as they can.

    It's up to us to stop that becoming a balance of trade debt problem, which is a slower form of the Greek burden. Can't understand why some think the argument that 'they sell more to us than we do to them' is such a good one.
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    Quote Originally Posted by paul143 View Post
    There is no evidence either way.

    What I know is that it appears that we have offered 20bn and they want at least 60bn for our divorce bill with that being practically agreed upon (along with significant progress on the Irish Question and EU/UK Citizens) before negotiations start on the post Brexit status of the current agreements.

    There is also the issue that there may be a circular argument happening within the negotiations regarding the exit bill.

    Where an agreement probably cannot be made on the final cost of the divorce bill until we have an agreement on what elements of the EU/EEA we wish to retain (e.g. ERASMUS/Euratom). As we would expect to make subscription payments dues to being a member of those elements.

    However, we cannot start to negotiate about which parts we wish to retain our membership until we make significant progress on the final cost for the divorce bill.
    Agreed.

    I've heard arguments of trying to commit to the 40 billion difference via costs of transition. If 40 billion is a genuine number, that method doesn't sound unreasonable. Kind of win win.

    We need a transition to lubricate the period of change and keep the risks to the economy manageable. 40 billion, immediate UK sovereignty and 2 to 4 more years of controlled migration doesn't sound that bad to me. Bit like extending the membership but cancelling commitments to future spending plans.

    Alternatively, if that's unacceptable to the 52% then lets plan for that cliff edge and stop messing around.

    To be honest, I trust the civil service more than the government in all this. They have the wit and reason to get the best out of the situation provided the politicians keep their oars out of it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DantesShadow View Post
    Interesting words by Yanis Varoufakis on the whole negotiation thing. In short, he is questioning the whole EU negotiation in this, saying they don't want to actually negotiate and have no mandate to do so. It is all a game the EU plays to in the end get what is wants and implies it is the will of all EU member states and the whole sequencing is purely a tactic that has no basis in reaching a deal. He says the UK is better off leaving now without negotiations though that would be extremely damaging to the UK it would be better than the humiliation the EU is trying to put the UK though now.

    The best option (beyond staying) he believes is for a Norway style agreement fixed for 5 years, which eases the whole thing for business and above all, kicks the ball into Merkel and May's successors courts and allows them to talk more productively.

    His views on what was happening across the EU: Spain, France, Germany, Austria was also a little worrying for the European project and the rise of far right hate groups. You don't have to like the guy, but he does have a lot of experience on fractious relationships with the EU. His view has merits - walking away without a del is hugely damaging but getting no deal, after giving up everything and having made no preparations and having no time for preparations is a lot worse.

    I dont; know if his Norway option for 5 years meant replication or jointing EFTA etc
    good post DS. I have read a lot Yanis has said over the last few years and agreed with much of it but i rather think if you were in a room full of people negotiating and he was one, he'd probably upsticks and leave. I rather have him down as a bit of a "rejectionist" sort of like Johnny Rotten compared with Paul Weller. He'd come out of the meeting citing all sorts but wouldnt put any compromise forward unless it totally suited him. Ive managed people like that and their "purity" doesnt get us anywhere. It all "I" again and not "We".
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luises-Finger View Post
    Agreed.

    I've heard arguments of trying to commit to the 40 billion difference via costs of transition. If 40 billion is a genuine number, that method doesn't sound unreasonable. Kind of win win.

    We need a transition to lubricate the period of change and keep the risks to the economy manageable. 40 billion, immediate UK sovereignty and 2 to 4 more years of controlled migration doesn't sound that bad to me. Bit like extending the membership but cancelling commitments to future spending plans.

    Alternatively, if that's unacceptable to the 52% then lets plan for that cliff edge and stop messing around.

    To be honest, I trust the civil service more than the government in all this. They have the wit and reason to get the best out of the situation provided the politicians keep their oars out of it.
    mmm.. yeah thats a familiar phrase is it not at the mo? Esp in the rw press. A sizable amount of Tory politicians, UKip and most of our national press actually WANT a "No Deal". Its frightening.
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    Couldn't resist. ,

    He was too smart for his own good.

    Prophetic, I'm sure.
    Last edited by Luises-Finger; Yesterday at 00:07.
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