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Thread: The Congested League Table

  1. #1 Default The Congested League Table 
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    It’s a crazy tight looking race at the bottom this season, the spread of points is so even, and we’re really seeing the impact of money I reckon. And what was known as 'the bottom half’, now arguably starts at 7th place.

    10th place is 5 points off the drop, and 6 points off 2nd from bottom- Bournemouth who look like they’re having a good season. 9th place is 8 points off the drop, and 8th is 9 points from the drop. And at the same time, 2nd from bottom is 3 points from 14th.

    This time last year 10th place was 11 points from the drop, 9th was 14 points from it, and 8th was 18.

    To show the change in spread of points, 7th place this time last year had 44 points, Burnley are in 7th now with 36 points, who also look like they’re having a great season. 8th place this time last year had 40 points, which is generally the safe number, and it’s now 35 points. 6th place is now the first spot with 40+ points.

    And that’s all with 11 games still left to play. We talk so much about the money having an impact on at the top, but it’s incredible the impact it’s having on the rest(or most) of the league. To say that there are no easy games in the Premier League has never been truer.

    A side by side graph would be interesting if any can do it- I started digging more as I was typing, so it’s a bit muddled looking, but it’s pretty startling reading.

    Even just checking the last handful of seasons, it’s all the same pretty much up to this season, now we’re seeing this huge shift, encapsulated perfectly by 8th place: last 5 seasons at this stage it was 15, 16, 18, 14, and 18 points from the drop, now it’s 9.
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    Take two...

    Any thoughts?
    'Okey doke, we'll leave it there so'
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    Would have been nice with a table to highlight how tight it is, I know anyone can go look at the table, but equally anyone could glean how tight it is by looking at the table and they'd not be trying to start a thread on it (not being critical, just pointing out how it would help the thread)

    It is amazing that clubs like palace for instance changed their managed, changed their fortunes, but are now still very much in the dogfight. I might try and split the season into three, help show how a club like palace has had a funny season and how tight it is down there.


    13th NEWCASTLE UNITED (P27 W7 D7 L13 PTS 28)

    Notable high point of season > 7th : P9 W4 D2 L3 PTS 14
    The Magpies stole early ground on others, but then slumped after a good early start losing all but one of their next nine games and dropping into the bottom 3 if only for a week. They've recovered somewhat, but that run of one point out of 27 has left them dangerously close to the relegation zone.


    14th BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION (P27 W6 D10 L11 PTS 28)

    Notable high point of season > 9th : P13 W4 D4 L5 PTS 16
    The Seagulls have spent most of the season 12th-16th in the table, 20 of the 27 game weeks with some excursions into the bottom 4 and 4 brief weeks in the top 10.


    15th CRYSTAL PALACE (P27 W6 D9 L12 PTS 27)

    Notable low point of season > 20th : P7 W0 D0 L7 PTS 0
    Palace climbed up as high as 12th with a run of WWDLDWW before slumping a little to their current position


    16th SWANSEA CITY (P27 W7 D6 L14 PTS 27)

    Notable low point of season > 20th : P22 W4 D4 L14 PTS 16
    The Swans have recovered somewhat from a pretty poor start to the season, spending FIFTEEN game weeks in the relegation zone and eight of those in a row rock bottom. A sequence of DWWDW including a win over Liverpool followed by a win over Arsenal has seen them escape the bottom four for the first time since 21st October


    17th HUDDERSFIELD TOWN (P27 W7 D6 L14 PTS 27)

    Notable high point of season > 10th : P11 W4 D3 L4 PTS 15)
    The Terriers started off quite well and peaked not long after beating Man Utd, but slumped to 19th after losing FIVE in a row before Sunday's win over Bournemouth


    18th SOUTHAMPTON (P27 W5 D11 L11 PTS 26)

    Notable high point of season > 9th : P10 W3 D4 L3 PTS 13
    Saints actually started reasonably well, lost at home to Man Utd and Watford, and at Stoke, but picked up enough points to be in the top 10. Their recent form has been very poor though, since beating Everton on 26th November they've won just ONCE, seven draws and one win in 14 games doesn't keep you very safe.


    19th STOKE CITY (P27 W6 D7 L14 PTS 25)

    Notable high point of season > 13th : P7 W2 D2 L3 PTS 8
    The Potters have been more Brian than Harry this season, winning regularly only in the sense of every 4th or usually 5th game, and losing 2-3 in a row in-between.


    20th WEST BROMWICH ALBION (P26 W3 D11 L12 PTS 20)

    Notable high point of season > 10th : P8 W2 D4 L2 PTS 10
    The Baggies won their opening two games of the season, have won just ONCE since. They have drawn a few games, notably against Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton twice and away to Tottenham. Amazingly given their position they have only lost twice to 3 goal margins, 4-0 at home to Chelsea and 3-0 away at Man City.


    Watford and West Ham are just above the teams listed above, 2 points on and a mere FOUR points from the drop zone with Bournemouth a further point ahead. It bears looking at Everton's season, they were 18th after 10 games with just 2 wins, they've climbed 9 places with 7 wins in 17 games but are still only 8 points clear of the drop zone and with a similar and equally negative GD to Southampton with whom they've basically swapped places - Everton 18th after 10 games, Southampton 9th after 10 games........................
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    Klopp kind of mentioned this yesterday, how there's hardly any teams that are definitely safe from relegation (outside of the top teams.)

    So, most teams will still have something to play for in all their matches including matches against the top 6, which could potentially affect the race for top 4 too.
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    Good info, Darkness, cheers.

    Yeah, I mentioned in my op that a graph would be good if anyone was up for it, it would deffo help. I suppose I thought it was thread worthy due to how different it is to previous years, ive been taking note of it in previous weeks, half expecting it start dividing more as it has previously, but it just kept getting more and more congested. And after this weekend even more so again.

    Even looking at Bournemouth getting 3 points from Chelsea, it’s crazy, that has them in 10th, yet without it, they’re 2 off the drop. It’s the hardest in memory to pick any probable relegation candidates.

    The money has made such a huge difference to the ‘other teams’, never mind the top teams.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedHed2 View Post
    Good info, Darkness, cheers.

    Yeah, I mentioned in my op that a graph would be good if anyone was up for it, it would deffo help. I suppose I thought it was thread worthy due to how different it is to previous years, ive been taking note of it in previous weeks, half expecting it start dividing more as it has previously, but it just kept getting more and more congested. And after this weekend even more so again.

    Even looking at Bournemouth getting 3 points from Chelsea, it’s crazy, that has them in 10th, yet without it, they’re 2 off the drop. It’s the hardest in memory to pick any probable relegation candidates.

    The money has made such a huge difference to the ‘other teams’, never mind the top teams.
    I know Swansea have just shown how to do it, but WBA need to get their act together pretty sharpish or you can call them one.

    The cut-off at the moment is exactly 1ppg - I doubt that will change too much. To reach 38 points from here they need something like 5-3-4 or 4-6-2, which when you see what they've managed in 26 games is a MASSIVE turnaround.

    they've appreciated the position they're in and realise the need for 3 points tonight.
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    Money is the culprit - but fear is the reason that the standard of football has improved at the bottom of the league...

    Nobody wants to drop out of the biggest gravy train in world football at the moment
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    Quote Originally Posted by ***Stuzzza*** View Post
    I know Swansea have just shown how to do it, but WBA need to get their act together pretty sharpish or you can call them one.

    The cut-off at the moment is exactly 1ppg - I doubt that will change too much. To reach 38 points from here they need something like 5-3-4 or 4-6-2, which when you see what they've managed in 26 games is a MASSIVE turnaround.

    they've appreciated the position they're in and realise the need for 3 points tonight.
    Yeah, true enough on West Brom, but as you say, with what Swansea have done, and seemingly every other obvious candidate seems to have done this season too, with 11 games left, it’s hard to even say they’re a solid pick.

    Hopefully tonight is their night, and Sturridge should be well up for it too.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Money is the culprit - but fear is the reason that the standard of football has improved at the bottom of the league...

    Nobody wants to drop out of the biggest gravy train in world football at the moment
    Yeah, spot on.

    The managers of those clubs know that it's very likely heads will roll the minute form dips. Then you get the 'bounce' affect more often than not when those managers are replaced. Clubs don't hang around anymore waiting for results to improve before tearing it up and bringing in someone else. What's at stake is huge.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedHed2 View Post
    Yeah, true enough on West Brom, but as you say, with what Swansea have done, and seemingly every other obvious candidate seems to have done this season too, with 11 games left, it’s hard to even say they’re a solid pick.

    Hopefully tonight is their night, and Sturridge should be well up for it too.
    Well that didn't go too well
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    People go on about the money and the "difference" it makes, I'd suggest it hasn't really. Why not? Well unless the standard of player suddenly rocketed the only thing that did is prices! Ibe at £15m may not be the best example, but nonetheless shows that clubs not in the upper echelons of the league are spending bigger, but not getting that much better quality.

    Or put another way, it's not like they're suddenly splashing out £34m on Salah's, if anything it is just leading to price hikes.



    Why is it congested down the bottom? Well in spite of the clear distance between first and second the top 4-5 clubs have been same as most of the time, just happens there is so little difference between the bottom clubs and very few clubs are able to put together any consistency consistently ie might string some good results together then hit a bad run.


    Also notice that even with the club rock bottom they're not desperately adrift, getting close to it but never quite. And 26 points from 27 games is not far off par for 38-40 from 38, mid table has often been not much more than 44-50 points anyway so all much of a muchness when looking at around a point a game returns.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarknessIsCalling View Post
    People go on about the money and the "difference" it makes, I'd suggest it hasn't really. Why not? Well unless the standard of player suddenly rocketed the only thing that did is prices! Ibe at £15m may not be the best example, but nonetheless shows that clubs not in the upper echelons of the league are spending bigger, but not getting that much better quality.

    Or put another way, it's not like they're suddenly splashing out £34m on Salah's, if anything it is just leading to price hikes.



    Why is it congested down the bottom? Well in spite of the clear distance between first and second the top 4-5 clubs have been same as most of the time, just happens there is so little difference between the bottom clubs and very few clubs are able to put together any consistency consistently ie might string some good results together then hit a bad run.


    Also notice that even with the club rock bottom they're not desperately adrift, getting close to it but never quite. And 26 points from 27 games is not far off par for 38-40 from 38, mid table has often been not much more than 44-50 points anyway so all much of a muchness when looking at around a point a game returns.
    Not the money of the players - the players is the same denomination, its the rewards for the premier league
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarknessIsCalling View Post
    People go on about the money and the "difference" it makes, I'd suggest it hasn't really. Why not? Well unless the standard of player suddenly rocketed the only thing that did is prices! Ibe at £15m may not be the best example, but nonetheless shows that clubs not in the upper echelons of the league are spending bigger, but not getting that much better quality.

    Or put another way, it's not like they're suddenly splashing out £34m on Salah's, if anything it is just leading to price hikes.



    Why is it congested down the bottom? Well in spite of the clear distance between first and second the top 4-5 clubs have been same as most of the time, just happens there is so little difference between the bottom clubs and very few clubs are able to put together any consistency consistently ie might string some good results together then hit a bad run.


    Also notice that even with the club rock bottom they're not desperately adrift, getting close to it but never quite. And 26 points from 27 games is not far off par for 38-40 from 38, mid table has often been not much more than 44-50 points anyway so all much of a muchness when looking at around a point a game returns.
    Just curious as to whether you actually read the op? No worries if not, it’s just you keep saying stuff that’s been mentioned in it- they’re very much not desperately adrift, which I suppose is the point, it’s a new phenomenon.

    Even just checking the last handful of seasons, it’s all the same pretty much up to this season, now we’re seeing this huge shift, encapsulated perfectly by 8th place: last 5 seasons at this stage it was 15, 16, 18, 14, and 18 points from the drop, now it’s 9.
    It’s some coincidence that this new condensed spread of points had come about after the influx of all that tv money, yet it has nothing to do with it.
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    GrottonRed is online now LFC Forums Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedHed2 View Post
    Just curious as to whether you actually read the op? No worries if not, it’s just you keep saying stuff that’s been mentioned in it- they’re very much not desperately adrift, which I suppose is the point, it’s a new phenomenon.



    It’s some coincidence that this new condensed spread of points had come about after the influx of all that tv money, yet it has nothing to do with it.
    It's certainly the money that's doing it.

    If you look at the players/squads of the teams who normally finish below halfway, the quality is far higher.

    Plus the promoted teams, in the main, are far better equipped when they come up now.

    Because the prize is so high, most of the new money from owners is being spent by Championship clubs to become PL clubs/owners by the back door.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedHed2 View Post
    Even just checking the last handful of seasons, it’s all the same pretty much up to this season, now we’re seeing this huge shift, encapsulated perfectly by 8th place: last 5 seasons at this stage it was 15, 16, 18, 14, and 18 points from the drop, now it’s 9.


    It’s some coincidence that this new condensed spread of points had come about after the influx of all that tv money, yet it has nothing to do with it.
    I think the most striking change is Everton.

    I don't know about the gaps at this stage but in the final table 8th was 12 points above 18th - I think that margin will probably be broadly similar this year.

    The difference was that in the massive 23 point gap between United in 6th (69 points) and Southampton in 8th (46) sat Everton with 61. 8th down to 17th were separated by just 6 points. That looks fairly similar, albeit 19th and 20th were further adrift.

    But rather than establishing themselves further in 7th place, and closing the gap above them, Everton have fallen right back into the pack. And that's even though Arsenal have been doing their best to come back to meet them.
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    Good thread, Red. I said this in the Top Four thread and think it’s fitting in this.
    City have done so well that they’ve become irrelevant. The race for top four and the battle against relegation is where this season’s drama is. I agree with you and Mysteron, what we’re seeing is the result of the extra money available to the teams and the fear of losing that money. We’ll also see good managers from across Europe coming to our ‘smaller’ Clubs to ply their trade.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrottonRed View Post
    It's certainly the money that's doing it.

    If you look at the players/squads of the teams who normally finish below halfway, the quality is far higher.

    Plus the promoted teams, in the main, are far better equipped when they come up now.

    Because the prize is so high, most of the new money from owners is being spent by Championship clubs to become PL clubs/owners by the back door.
    It’s a good point about teams coming, and just from looking at the Championship in recent seasons, yeah it deffo seems that buyers of clubs see much more value there, and as you allude to, they have time to iron stuff out and be actually ready to go when they come up.

    It’s interesting too that it could easily be 3 PL clubs that go down and none of the ones that just came up.

    Relegation has to be even more dangerous for some of the clubs now than ever, and you’d wonder how they’ll manage it when it does happen, because 3 clubs will be going down, even though right now it looks like none of the have accepted it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ***Stuzzza*** View Post
    I think the most striking change is Everton.

    I don't know about the gaps at this stage but in the final table 8th was 12 points above 18th - I think that margin will probably be broadly similar this year.

    The difference was that in the massive 23 point gap between United in 6th (69 points) and Southampton in 8th (46) sat Everton with 61. 8th down to 17th were separated by just 6 points. That looks fairly similar, albeit 19th and 20th were further adrift.

    But rather than establishing themselves further in 7th place, and closing the gap above them, Everton have fallen right back into the pack. And that's even though Arsenal have been doing their best to come back to meet them.
    I’ve been keeping a bit of an eye on it in recent weeks, and I’ve been expecting that gap to emerge, but if anything it’s going the other way. this thread started as a post in the weekend thread, but after the weekend it got even narrower so I figured a thread would be worthy.

    It will be fascinating to see if it does end up broadly similar. The other thing that will be interesting is next season, if all goes as it has been, I wonder will the gap now start to invert, if that’s the word, in that will 7th to 10th get closer to 3rd and 4th? I suspect it might.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WinterPoolStark View Post
    Good thread, Red. I said this in the Top Four thread and think it’s fitting in this.
    City have done so well that they’ve become irrelevant. The race for top four and the battle against relegation is where this season’s drama is. I agree with you and Mysteron, what we’re seeing is the result of the extra money available to the teams and the fear of losing that money. We’ll also see good managers from across Europe coming to our ‘smaller’ Clubs to ply their trade.
    Yep, and it’s also happening with players, really talented players are becoming more and more willing to go to clubs who they’d never have gone to, and not just because of they money they can pay, but because of the opportunity to audition for the bigger clubs.

    I can see that bringing the whole league together in time, maybe not parity, but it could well make 4th to 6th up for grabs like never before.

    It’s interesting that as much as the money is supposedly ruining competition at the very top, it is in Europe tbf, it seems to be very much opening it up just below. Who knows, over time it may even level it all out more than anything else.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedHed2 View Post
    It’s a good point about teams coming, and just from looking at the Championship in recent seasons, yeah it deffo seems that buyers of clubs see much more value there, and as you allude to, they have time to iron stuff out and be actually ready to go when they come up.

    It’s interesting too that it could easily be 3 PL clubs that go down and none of the ones that just came up.

    Relegation has to be even more dangerous for some of the clubs now than ever, and you’d wonder how they’ll manage it when it does happen, because 3 clubs will be going down, even though right now it looks like none of the have accepted it.
    It's certainly a tough road back, looking at the struggles recently relegated teams are experiencing:
    2016/17: Sunderland, Hull and Middlesbrough went down - the first 2 look in serious danger of back-to-back relegations, and Boro look no better than an outside bet for the play-offs.
    2015/16: Villa, Norwich and Newcastle - Newcastle bounced straight back, Villa look to be back on some kind of track and may well make the play-offs - relative successes, but these are relatively big clubs. This is Norwich's second up and down, but if they don't bounce back next season it may be too late. Currently mid-table.
    2014/15: Hull, Burnley & QPR - Hull have been up and down, Burnley look to have cracked it, QPR probably not
    2013/14: Cardiff, Fulham & Norwich - Cardiff and Fulham are just about back challenging for promotion again but probably still only play-off at best.

    That's not too many teams that have made it back up, and fewer still that stayed up.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedHed2 View Post
    I’ve been keeping a bit of an eye on it in recent weeks, and I’ve been expecting that gap to emerge, but if anything it’s going the other way. this thread started as a post in the weekend thread, but after the weekend it got even narrower so I figured a thread would be worthy.

    It will be fascinating to see if it does end up broadly similar. The other thing that will be interesting is next season, if all goes as it has been, I wonder will the gap now start to invert, if that’s the word, in that will 7th to 10th get closer to 3rd and 4th? I suspect it might.
    Last season 6th-8th was 69-61-46 and then 8th down to 17th was all bunched up with gaps to 18, 19 & 20.

    This season I think 6th will probably get about the same, or a little less, but 7th and 8th (probably Leicester and Everton) probably both more like 50, then below that I think it'll be pretty tight between about 9th/10th down to 16/17/18, from around mid-40's down to high 30's, with probably one or two teams somewhat adrift.

    I don't think the table will look radically different...apart from that gap to the top 6.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ***Stuzzza*** View Post
    It's certainly a tough road back, looking at the struggles recently relegated teams are experiencing:
    2016/17: Sunderland, Hull and Middlesbrough went down - the first 2 look in serious danger of back-to-back relegations, and Boro look no better than an outside bet for the play-offs.
    2015/16: Villa, Norwich and Newcastle - Newcastle bounced straight back, Villa look to be back on some kind of track and may well make the play-offs - relative successes, but these are relatively big clubs. This is Norwich's second up and down, but if they don't bounce back next season it may be too late. Currently mid-table.
    2014/15: Hull, Burnley & QPR - Hull have been up and down, Burnley look to have cracked it, QPR probably not
    2013/14: Cardiff, Fulham & Norwich - Cardiff and Fulham are just about back challenging for promotion again but probably still only play-off at best.

    That's not too many teams that have made it back up, and fewer still that stayed up.
    Without looking at the numbers, it seems that clubs who’ve been in the PL for a number of years, who then go down, seem to struggle a lot. I’m thinking of Wigan, Hull, Sunderland now, Norwich too maybe? Reading were up for a good while too I think? If they don’t bounce back soon, it’s got to be very difficult the following years, now more than ever.

    Newcastle are a mad one, they seem to have bounced up and down for fun in recent years- I really thought this was the year to do it right, but it looks like business as usual. I suspect they’ll hang on, though. Ashley is either the worst owner in the world, or some mad genius, hard to say for sure.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedHed2 View Post
    Without looking at the numbers, it seems that clubs who’ve been in the PL for a number of years, who then go down, seem to struggle a lot. I’m thinking of Wigan, Hull, Sunderland now, Norwich too maybe? Reading were up for a good while too I think? If they don’t bounce back soon, it’s got to be very difficult the following years, now more than ever.

    Newcastle are a mad one, they seem to have bounced up and down for fun in recent years- I really thought this was the year to do it right, but it looks like business as usual. I suspect they’ll hang on, though. Ashley is either the worst owner in the world, or some mad genius, hard to say for sure.
    Nonsense. He goes to loads of games, therefore his heart is definitely at the club and that's what counts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by steviewonder87 View Post
    Nonsense. He goes to loads of games, therefore his heart is definitely at the club and that's what counts.
    'Okey doke, we'll leave it there so'
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedHed2 View Post
    Ashley is either the worst owner in the world, or some mad genius, hard to say for sure.
    Ashley saw an opportunity and messed it up and is now saddled with an unwanted love child
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Money is the culprit - but fear is the reason that the standard of football has improved at the bottom of the league...

    Nobody wants to drop out of the biggest gravy train in world football at the moment
    You really think the standard of football has improved at the bottom of the league?

    I would think it is more the opposite. The standard of football has gotten worse - there are now more than a handful of teams that do nothing more than sit 10 or 11 man behind the ball and defend, and hope for a counter attack or happily take a point by squeezing the life out of the other team. Hence the rehiring of Big Sam, Moyes etc..

    You're right no one wants to lose out on the money, and that is why we are seeing these one trick pony managers being rehired time and time again, and teams playing anti-football.
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  27. #27  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Ashley saw an opportunity and messed it up and is now saddled with an unwanted love child
    Is it really unwanted? I’m not so sure tbh.
    'Okey doke, we'll leave it there so'
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  28. #28  
    steviewonder87 is online now Academy prospect
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mysteron View Post
    Ashley saw an opportunity and messed it up and is now saddled with an unwanted love child


    He bought the club for about 135m, and it's now worth between 200-300m. Strange comment.
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  29. #29  
    canookiewookie is online now Academy prospect
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedHed2 View Post
    Is it really unwanted? I’m not so sure tbh.
    He will hold on to that team as long as he can. Every few years put it up for sale, give the fans hope, then pull out under some weak excuse, and continue on. It is genius of him really.
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  30. #30  
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    Quote Originally Posted by canookiewookie View Post
    He will hold on to that team as long as he can. Every few years put it up for sale, give the fans hope, then pull out under some weak excuse, and continue on. It is genius of him really.
    Yeah, he’s dangled that for sale sign too many times to believe he’s serious about it. But it does give the fans hope, and from his perspective, keeps them quiet for a while.
    'Okey doke, we'll leave it there so'
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